Libya, still living with the long shadow of the 2011 uprising and a country divided since 2014 between rival administrations, stands at a fragile hinge: its December 24 elections are the thread that might tie a nation back together, and a delay could unravel it. From the eastern town of Qubah, parliament's speaker Aguila Saleh warns that postponement would send the country back to its starting point and invite a parallel government to rise in the east. His words carry the old wound of a people who have seen their institutions split and reassembled too many times, and his frustration with a uni
Libya Faces 'Square One' Warning as Parliament Speaker Ties Stability to December Elections
"If the elections are delayed, we will go back to square one."
Mark
Why does the speaker's warning matter so much right now?
Mimi
Because he sits in the east, and he is saying out loud that a rival eastern government is the likely result if the December 24 vote slips. That would reopen the split that dates to 2014.
Luke
Worth noting that it's a warning, not a plan. He said a parallel government could emerge. Nobody has announced one.
Mark
He also called the unity government a "Tripoli government." What's behind that?
Mimi
His charge is that it failed to unify Libya's institutions. He also wants it to handle the obligations of the two governments that were dissolved.
Luke
That's his assessment. The article gives no response from the GNU, so we only have one side of that dispute.
Mark
And the talks on the election path?
Mimi
The U.N.-sponsored talks failed to find common ground this month. Saleh says the 75 committee members needn't meet, because a constitutional declaration already exists.
Luke
Which suggests he and the U.N. process disagree about whether more negotiation is even needed. That's a real gap.
Mark
What about the mercenaries?
Mimi
A U.S. official said Turkey and Russia reached an initial understanding on pulling out 300 Syrian mercenaries from each side.
Luke
Initial understanding, attributed to one U.S. official. Nothing here confirms a withdrawal has begun.
Mark
And the budget?
Mimi
The government proposed 100 billion dinars. Saleh expects up to 80 billion to be approved.
Luke
Again, that's his expectation, not a vote.
El Pulso
- A December 24 election date hangs in the balance, and the speaker warns that any delay could drag Libya back to square one.
- Talk of a parallel government in the east revives the fear of a split that already tore the country apart after 2014.
- Stalled U.N.-sponsored talks leave the election path without common ground, with the speaker dismissing further negotiation outright.
- A fight over a 100 billion dinar budget, which the speaker wants cut to as low as 80 billion, pits parliament against the unity government.
- Foreign forces and mercenaries remain in Libya despite a September truce, and the fate of their withdrawal will test whether the ceasefire holds.
Libya, still living with the long shadow of the 2011 uprising and a country divided since 2014 between rival administrations, stands at a fragile hinge: its December 24 elections are the thread that might tie a nation back together, and a delay could unravel it. From the eastern town of Qubah, parliament's speaker Aguila Saleh warns that postponement would send the country back to its starting point and invite a parallel government to rise in the east. His words carry the old wound of a people who have seen their institutions split and reassembled too many times, and his frustration with a unity government he calls a Tripoli government reflects a deeper question about whether any authority can speak for the whole.
In his office in the eastern town of Qubah, Aguila Saleh, speaker of Libya's House of Representatives, told Reuters that if the national elections set for December are delayed, the country will return to "square one." He warned that a new, parallel government would likely take shape in the east. The vote is scheduled for December 24, and Western governments see it as a critical step toward stability in a nation that has known chaos since the 2011 NATO-backed uprising against Muammar Gaddafi.
The path to this moment has been long and fragile. A U.N.-led process produced a ceasefire last year, and a unity government was formed in February to keep public services running and lead the country to the vote. A truce in September followed the collapse of Khalifa Haftar's 14-month offensive and called for all foreign forces and mercenaries to leave. Saleh says the president alone decides that question, and that unifying the army has been difficult because of outside interference. Recently, Turkey and Russia reached an initial understanding to work toward pulling out 300 Syrian mercenaries from each side.
Saleh's criticism of the unity government is sharp. He says it failed to unify institutions and has become a "Tripoli government." The election path itself remains unsettled, as U.N.-sponsored talks this month failed to find common ground. Saleh argued there was no need for the 75 committee members to meet, insisting, "We do not need to go around and waste time. No bargaining."
Money adds another layer of tension. The government proposed a 100 billion dinar budget, about $22.15 billion, which Saleh considers too large. He expects parliament to approve up to 80 billion dinars. Three things will reveal where Libya is heading: whether the December vote holds, whether foreign forces truly leave, and how this budget dispute is resolved.
In his office in the eastern town of Qubah, Aguila Saleh, the speaker of Libya's House of Representatives, told Reuters that if national elections set for December are delayed, the country will go back to "square one." He warned that a new, parallel government would then likely take shape in the east.
The vote is scheduled for December 24. Western governments see it as a critical step toward stability in Libya, which has been in chaos since the 2011 NATO-backed uprising against Muammar Gaddafi. The country is a major oil and gas producer, and it has been split since 2014 between an internationally recognized government in the west and a rival administration in the east that built its own institutions.
A U.N.-led peace process produced a ceasefire last year, after fighting between the two factions. A unity government, the Government of National Unity or GNU, was formed in February and approved by parliament in March. Its task was to keep public services running and lead the country to the December elections. Saleh said he did not want to see further division.
The peace process also produced a truce in September, after the collapse of a 14-month offensive by Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army. That truce called for all foreign forces and mercenaries to leave the country. Saleh said the president remains the one who decides the matter of foreign forces and mercenaries, and he said unifying the army has been difficult because of outside interference.
The foreign presence has seen some movement. A senior U.S. State Department official said last month that Turkey and Russia, which backed opposing sides in Libya, had reached an initial understanding. They would work toward pulling out 300 Syrian mercenaries from each side of the conflict.
Saleh was sharply critical of the unity government. He said it had failed to unify Libya's institutions and had become a "Tripoli government." He also demanded that it take care of the obligations of the two governments that were dissolved when it was formed.
The politics of the election path remain unsettled. This month, U.N.-sponsored talks meant to pave the way for the vote failed to find common ground. Saleh said there was no need for the 75 committee members to meet at all. "We have a constitutional declaration," he said, adding, "We do not need to go around and waste time. No bargaining."
Money is a second point of friction. The government has proposed a budget of 100 billion dinars, about $22.15 billion. Saleh called that too large and said he expects parliament to approve a figure of up to 80 billion dinars.
Three things are worth watching: whether the December 24 vote holds, whether foreign forces and mercenaries actually leave under the truce terms, and how the budget dispute is settled between the speaker and the government.
Citas Notables
If the elections are delayed, we will go back to square one.— Aguila Saleh, speaker of the House of Representatives, to Reuters
We have a constitutional declaration. We do not need to go around and waste time. No bargaining.— Aguila Saleh
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