Every November, Earth drifts through the dust left behind by an ancient comet, and the debris flares briefly across the night as the Leonid meteors. Sixty years ago, on a cold night in Arizona, that ordinary passage swelled into one of the most astonishing skies humans have recorded, a reminder of how much of our sky is shaped by old and invisible journeys. This year the crossing is quiet, offering a gentler sky of about fifteen meteors an hour for those who step outside to look. The larger story lies ahead, in the slow orbit of the comet and the uncertain storms that may return with it.
Leonid Meteor Shower Peaks November 17, Six Decades After the 1966 Storm, With a Quieter Show Expected
The night the sky seemed to rain light
Mark
Why is this year's shower getting attention if it's going to be a quiet one?
Mimi
The date lines up with the 1966 storm, exactly 60 years on. That night at Kitt Peak, observers estimated about 40 meteors per second.
Mark
That's an enormous number. What made 1966 happen?
Mimi
Comet Tempel-Tuttle orbits every 33 years and leaves dense dust trails. In 1966 Earth plowed through one.
Luke
Worth noting that 40 per second is the Kitt Peak group's estimate, not an instrument count. The source gives it as an estimate, and the 144,000 an hour figure is just that estimate converted.
Mark
And this year?
Mimi
No dense trail, so about 15 an hour under ideal dark skies, the shower's normal rate.
Luke
Fifteen is the ideal-conditions figure. Light pollution will cut what people actually see.
Mark
Is a big storm coming back?
Mimi
Some forecasters point to 2033 and 2034, possibly hundreds an hour, after the comet's 2031 approach.
Luke
But the source says models disagree. Hundreds an hour is a forecast, and a 1966-scale storm is far from certain.
Mark
So the practical advice is simple.
Mimi
Go dark, wait 20 minutes, skip the phone, and look after midnight.
The Pulse
- On November 17, 1966, observers on Kitt Peak counted roughly 144,000 meteors an hour, a rate that still stands as a benchmark of wonder.
- This year Earth misses the dense dust trail, so the sky will hold a modest display of about fifteen meteors an hour rather than a storm.
- Viewers are urged to escape city glow, let their eyes adjust for twenty minutes, and avoid phone screens that wipe out night vision.
- The best window opens after midnight on November 17 into the early hours of November 18, with the radiant in Leo rising and the Moon past its quarter.
- Forecasters argue over whether the comet's next close passes around 2033 and 2034 will bring a dramatic storm, and the outcome remains genuinely uncertain.
Every November, Earth drifts through the dust left behind by an ancient comet, and the debris flares briefly across the night as the Leonid meteors. Sixty years ago, on a cold night in Arizona, that ordinary passage swelled into one of the most astonishing skies humans have recorded, a reminder of how much of our sky is shaped by old and invisible journeys. This year the crossing is quiet, offering a gentler sky of about fifteen meteors an hour for those who step outside to look. The larger story lies ahead, in the slow orbit of the comet and the uncertain storms that may return with it.
On the early morning of November 17, 1966, a small group of amateur astronomers stood on Kitt Peak in Arizona and watched the meteor count climb through the night. At 4:54 a.m. they estimated about 40 meteors per second, roughly 144,000 an hour, a storm that remains among the greatest ever recorded.
Sixty years later the Leonids return, but the sky will be far quieter. Each November Earth crosses dust shed by Comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle, and the grains, mostly no bigger than sand, burn up at about 44 miles per second as streaks that seem to fan out from Leo. Dense trails left by the comet's close passes can turn the usual trickle into a storm, as it did in 1966 and again in 1999, 2001 and 2002. This year Earth will not cross such a trail.
Expect around fifteen meteors an hour under dark skies. The best viewing falls after midnight on the night of November 17 into the early hours of November 18, when the Moon is at first quarter and sets early. Find a spot away from streetlights, wait about twenty minutes for your eyes to adjust, avoid your phone, and lie back to take in the whole sky.
The comet's next close approach is expected in 2031, and some forecasters hope for stronger displays around 2033 and 2034. Their models disagree, and a storm on the scale of 1966 remains far from certain.
In the early hours of November 17, 1966, a small group of amateur astronomers stood on Kitt Peak in Arizona and watched the sky. The meteor count kept climbing through the night, and then it surged. At 4:54 a.m. local time, the group estimated the rate at about 40 meteors per second, which works out to roughly 144,000 an hour. It remains one of the greatest meteor storms ever recorded.
Sixty years later, on the night of November 17, the same shower returns. This time the display will be far quieter.
The Leonids come every November, when Earth crosses a stream of dust shed by Comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle. Most of the particles are no bigger than a grain of sand. They strike the atmosphere at about 44 miles per second and burn up as streaks of light. Trace those streaks backward and they appear to fan out from a point in the constellation Leo, the Lion, called the radiant, which gives the shower its name.
The comet orbits the Sun every 33 years, and each close pass leaves fresh, dense trails of dust. When Earth plows through one, the usual trickle can become a storm. That is what happened in 1966. Observers in the western United States saw rates climb from a few dozen an hour to thousands per minute in a short burst. The most intense stretch lasted only about 15 minutes.
1966 was not the first such night. In November 1833, a Leonid storm over North America was so dramatic that many people believed the world was ending. It also helped launch the scientific study of meteors, because astronomers realized the meteors all seemed to come from a single point in the sky. More recently, strong displays arrived in 1999, 2001 and 2002, with rates reaching the thousands per hour in some places. Those outbursts were predicted well in advance, using models of the comet's dust trails.
This year Earth will not pass through a dense trail, so no storm is expected. Under ideal dark skies the Leonids should produce about 15 meteors an hour at the peak, the shower's typical rate in an ordinary year. The peak is expected around midnight UK time late on November 17, so for most of the world the best viewing is the night of Tuesday, November 17, into the early hours of Wednesday, November 18. The Moon will be at first quarter and sets around midnight or earlier in most places, leaving darker skies for the hours before dawn.
Viewing takes little equipment. Get as far from streetlights and city glow as you can, and give your eyes about 20 minutes to adjust; looking at a phone resets your night vision. No telescope or binoculars are needed. Lie back and take in a wide area of sky. The radiant rises around midnight, and the hours between then and dawn are best. Leonids are fast, and some leave glowing trails that linger a second or two. Dress warmly, since mid-November nights can be cold and you may be out for an hour or more.
The comet last passed near the Sun in 1998, and its next close approach is expected in 2031. Some forecasters predict stronger Leonid activity around 2033 and 2034, possibly hundreds of meteors an hour, though models disagree and a storm on the scale of 1966 is far from certain.
Notable Quotes
Some forecasters predict stronger Leonid activity around 2033 and 2034, though models disagree and a 1966-scale storm is far from certain.— The Watchers, summarizing forecasters
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