In Beirut, a lawyer who has watched Israeli governments come and go sees little reason to hope that next week's election will reach the south of his country. Years of invasion, airstrikes and demolition have taught Lebanese that the question is not only who rules in Jerusalem but what the state has come to regard as its right. Between a fragile June framework and ruins that keep multiplying, the Lebanese wait in a grey season that neither war nor peace fully describes, watching a distant American vote that may decide more than their own.
Lebanese Doubt Israeli Election Will End Occupation of South Lebanon
Israel's war on Lebanon has killed almost 9,000 people since October 2023, and more than one million people have been forced from their homes in the south.
Neither war nor peace, a grey area for a very long time
Mark
Why does a Lebanese lawyer's doubt about an Israeli election matter?
Mimi
Because it shows how people living under the occupation read the campaign. They hear no one promising withdrawal, and they conclude the outcome won't touch them.
Mark
Isn't Eisenkot seen as a break from Netanyahu, though?
Mimi
Inside Israel, many see him that way. In Lebanon he's remembered as the northern front commander in 2006 and the architect of the Dahiyeh Doctrine. He also criticised Netanyahu for halting strikes on Beirut since April.
Luke
Let me separate things. The Dahiyeh Doctrine description and the criticism of Netanyahu are reported as fact. But whether Eisenkot would actually keep the occupation going is the view of these analysts, not something he has said.
Mimi
Fair. Safieddine's point is about what candidates are not saying: no promise of withdrawal. That's an observation of the campaign, not a prediction of policy.
Mark
What about the June framework agreement?
Mimi
It aims for a phased withdrawal, yet Israel still holds large parts of the south and keeps demolishing villages. Hezbollah rejected the direct negotiations behind it.
Luke
And the sources here are all Lebanese residents and analysts. That's the story's point, but it's one side's reading. No Israeli voice or candidate response appears in this reporting.
Mark
So what's the other election that matters?
Mimi
Ayoub points to the US midterms on November 3, because they shape how emboldened Israel feels.
Luke
That's his judgment, not an established cause. Worth watching, but unproven.
Der Puls
- Israel's October 27 election is being watched in Beirut with suspicion rather than expectation, as residents doubt any new leader would change course in the south.
- Israeli forces still hold large parts of southern Lebanon, and demolitions of homes and infrastructure continue with little visible resistance.
- The June US-brokered framework promised a phased withdrawal, yet more than a million people remain displaced and the fear is that occupation could outlast a generation.
- Opposition candidates are seen in Lebanon as sharing the same military posture, with no candidate publicly promising withdrawal from the south.
- Analysts point to the US midterms on November 3 as the event most likely to shape Israel's posture toward Lebanon, Syria and the Palestinians.
In Beirut, a lawyer who has watched Israeli governments come and go sees little reason to hope that next week's election will reach the south of his country. Years of invasion, airstrikes and demolition have taught Lebanese that the question is not only who rules in Jerusalem but what the state has come to regard as its right. Between a fragile June framework and ruins that keep multiplying, the Lebanese wait in a grey season that neither war nor peace fully describes, watching a distant American vote that may decide more than their own.
In Beirut, lawyer Fouad Debs does not expect Israel's October 27 election to change much for Lebanon. Even if Benjamin Netanyahu's government falls, he thinks any new leadership would make small, symbolic gestures meant to reassure the outside world, not alter the reality on the ground in the south.
His doubt is widely shared. A June 2026 survey led by Jad Melki of the Lebanese American University found that 87 percent of Lebanese consider Israel their enemy, and the country remains split on what to do about it, with 54 percent backing diplomacy and 35 percent preferring armed resistance. Decades of airspace violations, ground invasions and occupation have left deep distrust that no change of government easily undoes.
The war has been long and costly. Israel escalated against Hezbollah in 2024 and again this year, and a June framework agreement promised a phased withdrawal, yet Israel still holds large parts of the south and continues to demolish villages. Almost 9,000 people have been killed since October 2023, and more than a million have been forced from their homes.
In Lebanon, the main challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, is read differently than he is in Israel. Many there see him as the architect of a doctrine of disproportionate destruction and as a critic of Netanyahu for restraining strikes on Beirut, not for the harm done. Analysts note that no candidate promises withdrawal or treats the south as a crisis.
For now, Lebanon lives in a limbo of neither war nor peace. Analysts believe the US midterms on November 3 may shape Israel's posture far more than the vote at home.
In Beirut, lawyer Fouad Debs does not expect Israel's October 27 election to change anything for his country. If Benjamin Netanyahu's government falls, he said, any shift in leadership might produce small, insignificant changes meant mainly to show the outside world that Israeli politics are not broken or malevolent. For Lebanon itself, he expects nothing major, or nothing at all.
His doubt is widely shared. The government that has overseen the invasion and reoccupation of southern Lebanon could be voted out next week, but residents and analysts say a long record of airspace violations, ground invasions and occupation has left Lebanese distrustful of Israel no matter who governs it. A June 2026 survey led by Lebanese American University professor Jad Melki found that 87 percent of those polled consider Israel their enemy. The same poll showed a country divided on what to do about it: 54 percent supported diplomacy with Israel, while 35 percent preferred armed resistance.
The fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shia group, has continued at varying intensity since October 2023, after the Hamas-led attack in southern Israel and the war in Gaza that followed. Israel escalated twice, first in September 2024 and again in March this year, after the start of the United States-Israeli war on Iran. In June, Israel and the Lebanese government signed a US-brokered framework agreement that aims for a phased Israeli withdrawal. Hezbollah rejected the direct negotiations that preceded it. Even so, Israel still holds large parts of the south, where it has systematically demolished homes and infrastructure in dozens of villages and forced more than one million people out. The war on Lebanon has killed almost 9,000 people since October 2023, among them journalists, first responders and children.
Netanyahu's main challenger appears to be Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party. Many Israelis see him as a break from a prime minister facing corruption trials, accusations that he failed to prevent the October 2023 attack, and charges that he put attacking Gaza ahead of freeing Israeli captives. In Lebanon the reading is different. Eisenkot is a former army chief of staff who commanded the northern front in the 2006 war on Lebanon and is the architect of the Dahiyeh Doctrine, a strategy of disproportionate destruction that Israel is now applying in Gaza and Lebanon. He has also criticised Netanyahu for yielding to US pressure by halting attacks on Beirut since April, arguing the military should strike Hezbollah targets anywhere in Lebanon.
Analysts say that pattern runs through the campaign. Netanyahu is wanted by the International Criminal Court on war crimes charges over Gaza, yet Eisenkot and other challengers have mostly attacked him on domestic issues and from the right, calling him soft on security. Elia Ayoub, a Lebanese researcher and podcaster, said they are not criticising him on humanitarian or human rights grounds. Karim Safieddine, a Beirut-based nonresident fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, pointed to what candidates are not saying: no one promises withdrawal, and no one treats south Lebanon as a crisis or a mistake. In his view the Israeli establishment sees Lebanon as its prize.
Ayoub argued the attitude runs deeper than one government. He cited the governmental and societal backlash against NAZA, a recent documentary by Israeli journalists in which soldiers describe the calculated mass killing of Palestinian civilians in Gaza. A deeply dehumanising discourse is normalised in Israeli society, he said, and pushback is met with drastic reaction. He does not necessarily expect the election to alter policy toward Lebanon.
Since the June agreement, Lebanon has been in limbo. Active fighting has largely stopped, but the demolitions go on with little opposition, and many Lebanese fear the occupation could last another generation. Safieddine called it a prolonged situation of neither war nor peace, a grey area the country will live in for a long time.
For Ayoub, the more consequential vote may be the US midterms on November 3. They tend to determine how emboldened Israel feels toward Palestinians first, he said, and also toward Lebanon and, to a large extent, Syria.
Bemerkenswerte Zitate
No one is promising withdrawal, and no one is addressing south Lebanon as a crisis or a mistake.— Karim Safieddine, Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy
I don't think anything major, or at all, will change for Lebanon even if there's a change in Israeli leadership.— Fouad Debs, Beirut lawyer
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