In a small Baltic nation that lives in the long shadow of its Soviet past and its Russian neighbor, Latvians cast ballots Saturday in a contest that revealed both the resilience of centrist governance and the growing restlessness of a people burdened by economic hardship and the costs of security. Prime Minister Kulbergs' United List emerged with a commanding lead, yet the rise of populist parties signals that the social contract holding Latvia's post-independence consensus together is under quiet but persistent strain. All parties remain anchored to the EU and NATO, but the question of who be
Latvia's ruling party leads election as populist challengers gain ground
It's remarkably good. I was not expecting such result.
Mark
So Kulbergs won decisively, but you're saying his position is actually weakened. How does that work?
Mimi
His party got 35.6%, which is a strong result. But populist parties that want a softer line on Russia nearly doubled their support. If he needs coalition partners, he's negotiating with a parliament that's shifted toward him on his right—parties that want to spend less on defense, that think decoupling from Russia is a mistake.
Luke
But let's be precise: we don't know yet what the final seat count is. Exit polls show vote share, not seats. Under proportional representation, 35.6% could translate to different coalition math depending on how the remaining votes distribute.
Mimi
Fair point. The preliminary results come Sunday. But the direction is clear—populist movements are gaining.
Mark
Why are they gaining? Is it just the economy, or is there something else?
Mimi
It's both. Yes, prices are high, wages are low, the health system is strained. But there's also a specific argument these parties are making: that Latvia's commitment to spend 5% of GDP on defense, and its complete economic decoupling from Russia, are making things worse. They're saying there's an alternative.
Luke
Which is worth noting because no party is actually proposing to leave NATO or the EU. So the populist argument is more about the pace and cost of alignment, not alignment itself.
Mark
And Kulbergs has already said he won't work with Latvia First anyway.
Mimi
Right. So even if they gained ground, they may not have a seat at the table. That's a constraint on how much their gains actually matter for policy.
Luke
Which is also worth saying plainly: we don't yet know what the coalition will look like. That's the next chapter, and it could be complicated.
Der Puls
- Latvia's ruling centrists won big, but the surprise strength of populist parties reveals a country increasingly divided between geopolitical duty and economic exhaustion.
- Latvia First nearly doubled its 2022 result by courting ethnic Russian voters and arguing that economic separation from Russia is self-defeating — a message that found real traction.
- With Germany deploying Eurofighter jets to patrol Latvian airspace on election day, the security stakes were not abstract: this was democracy conducted under the watch of a neighbor at war.
- Kulbergs drew a firm line, ruling out any coalition with pro-Russian parties, but his government is expected to emerge weakened and facing a fragmented parliament with no easy majority.
- Coalition talks loom as the true test — all parties nominally share EU-NATO alignment, yet the populist surge means the price of that consensus will be harder to extract from a restless electorate.
In a small Baltic nation that lives in the long shadow of its Soviet past and its Russian neighbor, Latvians cast ballots Saturday in a contest that revealed both the resilience of centrist governance and the growing restlessness of a people burdened by economic hardship and the costs of security. Prime Minister Kulbergs' United List emerged with a commanding lead, yet the rise of populist parties signals that the social contract holding Latvia's post-independence consensus together is under quiet but persistent strain. All parties remain anchored to the EU and NATO, but the question of who bears the weight of that commitment — and how long ordinary citizens will accept the answer — now moves to the center of coalition negotiations.
Latvia held parliamentary elections Saturday, with Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs' centrist United List capturing a projected 35.6% of the vote — a result that surprised even Kulbergs himself. Speaking at his party's Riga headquarters, he called it "remarkably good." Yet the evening's fuller picture was more complicated: populist parties made significant gains, with Latvia First nearly doubling its 2022 result to reach 11.3%, buoyed by support from the country's substantial ethnic Russian minority and widespread frustration over high prices and stagnant wages.
The election — Latvia's 11th since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991 — was shaped by two overlapping anxieties. Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine looms over a country that shares borders with both Russia and Belarus, and Latvia has committed by law to spending at least 5% of GDP on defense. That burden leaves little room for the social spending many Latvians feel they need. Populist movements have sought to exploit this tension, arguing that the economic costs of Latvia's hard break from Russia are falling disproportionately on ordinary people. Kulbergs was unequivocal in response: no coalition with pro-Russian parties.
Latvia's vulnerability is not merely rhetorical. The government requested airspace protection during the vote, and Germany answered by sending four Eurofighter jets to patrol Latvian skies — a striking image of what EU-NATO membership means in practice for a small nation on Europe's eastern edge. Kulbergs, who only took office in May after the previous government collapsed over a dispute about Ukrainian drone policy, now faces the task of assembling a workable coalition in a parliament where no party holds a majority. Preliminary official results were expected Sunday, with complex negotiations to follow.
Latvia held parliamentary elections on Saturday with its ruling centrist party securing a commanding lead, even as populist challengers made significant gains in a country wrestling with economic strain and security threats from its Russian neighbor. Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs' United List was projected by exit polls from public broadcaster LSM to capture 35.6% of the vote—a result that left Kulbergs himself surprised. "It's remarkably good. I was not expecting such result," he said at his party's headquarters in Riga that evening.
The second-place finisher told a different story about the country's political mood. Latvia First, a populist party that has courted the country's substantial ethnic Russian minority, nearly doubled its support from the last election in 2022, reaching 11.3% in the exit poll. The party represents a broader shift toward populist movements in Latvia, including the Sovereign Power/Young Latvians Alliance, which have attempted to capitalize on widespread discontent by taking a softer line toward Moscow and arguing that complete economic separation from Russia is economically damaging. Despite these gains, Kulbergs made clear he would not cooperate with pro-Russian parties, specifically ruling out any coalition with Latvia First.
The election, Latvia's 11th since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, drew roughly 1.5 million eligible voters to choose among 14 parties competing for 100 seats in the Saeima under a proportional representation system. The campaign was shaped by two overlapping anxieties: the immediate security threat posed by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the grinding economic pressures facing ordinary Latvians. The country has committed by law to spending at least 5% of its GDP on defense—a burden that leaves less room for other spending. Many residents complain of high prices and low wages. The economy is sluggish, the health system is under strain, and the country faces persistent challenges from emigration and an aging population.
Latvia's position is precarious in ways that few Western democracies experience. It borders both Russia and Belarus, and like Ukraine, it is a former Soviet state with a sizable ethnic Russian and Russian-speaking minority. Unlike Ukraine, however, Latvia is already a member of both the European Union and NATO—a status that shapes its security posture but does not insulate it from Russian pressure. Riga has positioned itself as one of Kyiv's closest partners and supporters, a stance that carries real costs. The government requested protection for its airspace during the election, and Germany responded by deploying four Eurofighter jets to patrol Latvian skies.
Kulbergs himself is a relatively new arrival to the prime minister's office, having taken the position only in May after the previous government collapsed over a dispute about Ukrainian drones. Despite his party's strong showing in opinion polls leading into the election, his coalition is expected to emerge weakened by the populist gains. No major party is proposing any significant departure from Latvia's alignment with the EU and NATO, even as populist movements push back against the economic and security costs of that alignment. Partial results were expected Saturday evening, with preliminary official results due Sunday. Once those numbers are finalized, attention will shift to coalition negotiations—a process that could prove lengthy and complex in a parliament where no single party commands a majority.
Bemerkenswerte Zitate
It's remarkably good. I was not expecting such result.— Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, at his party's headquarters in Riga
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