In a small Baltic nation that knows what it means to lose sovereignty, voters have spoken with unusual clarity. Latvia's Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs and his centrist United List party won 35.3 percent of the parliamentary vote — the strongest result any party has achieved since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991 — affirming that even amid economic strain and the pull of populist voices, Latvia intends to remain firmly anchored to the West and steadfast in its support for Ukraine. The election, held in the shadow of Russian military power and German jets patrolling Latvian skies, was
Latvia's Pro-Ukraine PM Kulbergs Secures Historic Election Victory
Whatever the economic grievances, Latvia's direction would not shift.
Mark
So Kulbergs won decisively, but he only took office five months ago. What was he even doing before that?
Mimi
He came in after the previous coalition collapsed over how they handled Ukrainian military drones straying into Latvian airspace. It was a crisis that broke the government, and new elections followed.
Luke
Right, but we should be clear: the source doesn't explain what exactly happened with those drones or why it was so serious that it toppled a government. We know it happened, but the full story of that collapse isn't in the reporting.
Mark
Fair point. So what does his victory actually let him do now?
Mimi
He can form a coalition with either the nationalist National Alliance or the left-leaning Progressives. Either way, he maintains Latvia's pro-Ukraine stance and its commitment to NATO and the EU.
Luke
And he explicitly ruled out working with Latvia First, the party that nearly doubled its vote share. That's significant—it shows he's choosing alignment over coalition-building with populist movements, even though they're gaining ground.
Mark
Why are those populist parties gaining ground if Kulbergs just won so decisively?
Mimi
Economic hardship. Latvia spends 5 percent of GDP on defense because of the Russian threat, which leaves less for hospitals and schools. Wages are low, prices are high, people are emigrating. Populist parties argue that decoupling completely from Russia is damaging the economy.
Luke
But here's the thing: none of those populist parties actually proposed breaking with NATO or the EU. They took a softer line on Russia, but they didn't challenge the fundamental alignment. So the discontent is real, but it hasn't translated into a fundamental shift in foreign policy preference.
Mark
So Kulbergs' victory is both decisive and fragile in a way.
Mimi
Exactly. He has a strong mandate, but the underlying pressures—cost of living, emigration, aging population—those don't disappear because he won an election. He has to govern while managing both security concerns and economic frustration.
The Pulse
- A coalition collapse over Ukrainian drone incursions into Latvian airspace forced snap elections, thrusting Kulbergs — a businessman and amateur rally driver only five months into the job — into an unexpected fight for his political survival.
- Populist parties exploited real economic pain — stagnant wages, rising prices, a shrinking and aging population — to argue that Latvia's hard break from Russia and its 5% GDP defense commitment were costing ordinary people too much.
- Latvia First, courting the country's substantial ethnic Russian minority, nearly doubled its 2022 vote share to 11.3%, signaling that economic grievance had found a political home even if no party dared propose abandoning the EU-NATO framework.
- Kulbergs drew a sharp line before the final ballots were counted, publicly ruling out any coalition with pro-Russian parties and signaling that Latvia's pro-Ukraine posture would not be traded away for political convenience.
- With 42 of 100 parliamentary seats secured, Kulbergs now has a credible path to a majority — either with the nationalist National Alliance or the left-leaning Progressives — both routes preserving the foreign policy alignment that defines modern Latvia.
In a small Baltic nation that knows what it means to lose sovereignty, voters have spoken with unusual clarity. Latvia's Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs and his centrist United List party won 35.3 percent of the parliamentary vote — the strongest result any party has achieved since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991 — affirming that even amid economic strain and the pull of populist voices, Latvia intends to remain firmly anchored to the West and steadfast in its support for Ukraine. The election, held in the shadow of Russian military power and German jets patrolling Latvian skies, was less a routine democratic exercise than a referendum on what kind of country Latvia chooses to be.
Andris Kulbergs woke Sunday with a mandate few Latvian politicians have ever held. His centrist United List party claimed 35.3 percent of the vote — the largest share any party has won since Latvia broke free from Soviet control in 1991 — giving him 42 of 100 seats in the Saeima and a strong foundation to govern.
The road to this moment was anything but smooth. Kulbergs had only assumed the prime ministership five months earlier, after the previous coalition fractured over its handling of stray Ukrainian military drones crossing into Latvian airspace. Forced into early elections, he now found himself vindicated by voters who had watched the crisis unfold from a country that shares borders with both Russia and Belarus.
The election carried the weight of competing anxieties. Latvia's mandatory 5% GDP defense commitment leaves less for hospitals, schools, and wages. Prices have climbed, people are leaving, and the population is aging. These pressures gave populist movements room to breathe. Latvia First, which courted the country's ethnic Russian minority and took a softer line toward Moscow, nearly doubled its 2022 vote share to 11.3%. Other parties argued that Latvia's economic decoupling from Russia was self-inflicted damage. Yet none proposed abandoning the EU-NATO framework — the guardrails held.
Kulbergs made his intentions plain before the final count was finished: no coalition with pro-Russian parties, no partnership with Latvia First. Whatever the economic grievances, Latvia's direction would not shift. Political analysts noted he could build a majority with either the nationalist National Alliance or the left-leaning Progressives, both paths preserving the pro-Ukraine stance that has defined Latvian foreign policy since Russia's invasion began.
The election unfolded beneath a visible reminder of what is at stake — four German Eurofighter jets deployed to protect Latvian airspace at Riga's request. Roughly 1.5 million eligible voters weighed the cost of living against the specter of Russian aggression. Their answer was unambiguous.
Andris Kulbergs woke up on Sunday with a mandate. His centrist United List party had just claimed 35.3 percent of the vote in Latvia's parliamentary election—the largest share any party had won since the country broke free from Soviet control in 1991. With 97 percent of ballots counted, United List held 42 of the 100 seats in the Saeima, Latvia's parliament. At 47, a businessman and amateur rally driver who had only assumed the prime minister's office five months earlier, Kulbergs now stood in a position to shape his country's direction for years to come.
The path to this moment had been turbulent. Kulbergs took power in May after the previous coalition fractured over how it had managed a series of incidents involving stray Ukrainian military drones crossing into Latvian airspace. The collapse had forced new elections, and voters had responded decisively. The result was not merely a victory for Kulbergs personally but a clear statement about where Latvia wanted to position itself in an increasingly dangerous corner of Europe.
The election had unfolded against a backdrop of acute anxiety. Latvia shares borders with both Russia and Belarus. It is a former Soviet state, like Ukraine, and it carries within its borders a substantial ethnic Russian and Russian-speaking minority—a demographic reality that shapes every conversation about security and allegiance. Yet unlike Ukraine, Latvia is already anchored firmly to the West: it belongs to both the European Union and NATO. That membership, however, comes with costs. By law, Latvia commits at least 5 percent of its GDP to defense spending, a burden that leaves less money for hospitals, schools, and social services. The economy has stalled. Wages remain low. Prices have climbed. People are leaving the country, and the population is aging. These pressures created an opening for populist movements.
Latvia First, a party that had courted the country's ethnic Russian minority and taken a softer line toward Moscow, finished second in exit polling with 11.3 percent of the vote—nearly double its share in the 2022 election. The result suggested that discontent over living costs and economic hardship had real political weight. Other populist parties, including Sovereign Power and the Young Latvians Alliance, had also attempted to exploit frustration by arguing that Latvia's complete economic decoupling from Russia was damaging and that a less stringent approach to Moscow made sense. Yet none of these movements had proposed any fundamental break with Latvia's foreign policy alignment with the EU and NATO. The guardrails held.
Kulbergs made his position unmistakable. On Saturday night, before the final count was complete, he announced that he would not cooperate with any pro-Russian parties. He specifically ruled out forming a coalition with Latvia First. The message was clear: whatever the economic grievances, whatever the pressure from populist movements, Latvia's direction would not shift. Political scientist Roberts Kits noted that Kulbergs could form a parliamentary majority either with the nationalist National Alliance or with the left-leaning Progressives—both options that would preserve the pro-Ukraine stance that has defined Latvian policy since Russia's invasion of Ukraine began.
That invasion looms over everything in Latvia. Riga has positioned itself as one of Kyiv's closest partners and most vocal supporters. The election itself took place under the shadow of Russian military power: four German Eurofighter jets had been deployed to protect Latvian airspace at Riga's request, a visible reminder of the security umbrella that NATO provides and the threat that prompted the request. About 1.5 million Latvians were eligible to vote in this, the country's 11th parliamentary election since independence. They had cast their ballots in an election dominated by two competing anxieties—the cost of living at home and the specter of Russian aggression abroad. Kulbergs' decisive victory suggested that on the question of which anxiety would shape policy, Latvians had made their choice.
Notable Quotes
Kulbergs said he would not cooperate with any pro-Russian parties and specifically ruled out forming a coalition with Latvia First.— Andris Kulbergs, Prime Minister of Latvia
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