Latvia's October 3 Election Pivots on Russia: Security vs. Economic Pragmatism

On October 3, Latvians will choose a new parliament with Russia casting a shadow across every debate. The country sits 60 kilometers from the Russian border, and four German Eurofighter jets now patrol from Lielvarde air base—a visible reminder of NATO's commitment to defend the Baltic flank. Those aircraft arrived after a series of drone incursions into Baltic airspace, the most recent in mid-September when a NATO fighter downed an aircraft believed to have crossed from Belarus into Lithuanian territory. The threat feels immediate and real.

Security has become the dominant issue of this campaign. Nearly every major party has built defense into its platform, and the public's alarm is not abstract. Beyond the drones, there are what officials call hybrid threats: migrant flows that Latvia and its neighbors say Belarus is deliberately encouraging to test EU border security and destabilize the region. Intelligence officials from multiple European countries, including Latvia and the Czech Republic, have warned that Russia could attempt further provocations in the coming months, not years. Maris Andzans, who directs the Center for Geopolitical Studies in Riga, puts it plainly: if you want to test NATO's resolve, the Baltic states are the obvious place to try.

On defense spending and NATO alignment, Latvia's political landscape shows remarkable unity. The centrist United List, led by Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs and currently polling ahead, views Russia and Belarus as the paramount security challenge. The conservative National Alliance agrees. The center-left Progressives agree. Latvia has committed by law to spending 5 percent of its GDP on defense—one of only a handful of NATO members to do so—and that commitment appears durable regardless of which coalition forms after the vote. Voters back this consensus: polling from the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung shows Latvians generally hold a positive view of NATO. Agnese Kupca of the United List frames the stakes in terms that resonate across the political center: "The biggest threat is our neighbors, Russia and Belarus. Our partners in the EU should understand: it is not only our border with Russia, but also EU and NATO border with aggressor."

But beneath this surface agreement lies a deeper fracture. Before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Moscow was one of Latvia's most important trading partners. Since then, Latvia has cut imports from Russia and Belarus by more than 90 percent and imposed some of the EU's strictest restrictions on goods from both countries. The economy has adapted, but businesses with deep pre-war ties to Russia have suffered. Political analyst Filips Rajevskis identifies the core tension: "This closeness to the theater of war has strongly influenced the investment climate. So the big question is how to increase the investments and grow the economy."

Sixty percent of Latvians say they want their country to reduce dependence on Russia, according to the same polling. Many reject any economic cooperation with Moscow on principle. "In the current situation, it's absolute nonsense," one Riga resident told Deutsche Welle. "We can't watch what's happening and still be friends with Russia." But 20 percent of voters favor closer ties with Russia, and calls for pragmatism toward the eastern neighbor appear regularly in political debate. Julija Stepanenko, leader of the populist Sovereign Power/Young Latvians Alliance, has argued against completely severing economic ties with Russia and Belarus. Her party polls in second place despite revelations that Stepanenko received gifts worth roughly 400,000 euros from her father, a Russia-based businessman whose company manufactures construction materials, including anti-tank fortifications. When DW spoke with one of her party's campaign representatives at a stand in central Riga, she framed the position as pragmatism: "Our approach is pragmatism oriented toward the interests of Latvian business."

Ainars Slesers, a former businessman leading Latvia First, has made economic growth his central message. During a September television interview, he argued that goods transit with Russia should continue as long as EU sanctions permit it. His party, polling above 9 percent in third place, has focused heavily on investment and growth, arguing that Latvia has imposed restrictions beyond what Brussels requires. A party member, Edmunds Zivtins, told DW that full trade restoration remains premature: "As long as the war in Ukraine is ongoing, we cannot talk about it." But the door, in his framing, remains open.

Analysts suggest these parties may appeal to voters who feel sidelined by Latvia's increasingly restrictive stance—not necessarily because those voters support the Kremlin, but because they feel overlooked by mainstream politics. About one-third of Latvia's population speaks Russian at home, and parts of that community worry about policies like the phase-out of Russian-language school education and Russian's diminishing role in public life. Language and identity have become entangled with the Russia question in ways that complicate the political map. Yet predicting the outcome is difficult. Rajevskis notes that many voters are reluctant to reveal not just their party preference but even whether they plan to vote at all.

As Latvians head to the polls, Moscow shapes the campaign in multiple registers at once: as a direct security threat that unites the country around NATO and defense spending, and as an economic and cultural question that continues to divide significant portions of the electorate. The election will reveal how those tensions resolve.