In the quiet arithmetic of household budgets, Latvia's August inflation figures — a 3.2% annual rise — tell a story that begins not in Riga but in the Strait of Hormuz. Geopolitical conflict half a world away has become a pricing mechanism at home, as U.S. strikes on Iranian tankers and damage to Saudi infrastructure pushed oil toward $100 a barrel and natural gas to its highest point since early 2023. A temporary reprieve in food prices, born of policy rather than market calm, is the only buffer standing between Latvian consumers and a harder winter — and economists warn it will not hold.