In the Hutt South electorate north of Wellington, a new Victor Consulting poll suggests that the long-held ground of a senior National minister may be shifting beneath him. Voters there appear to be weighed down first and foremost by the everyday pressure of money, jobs and rising costs, and their frustration is spilling into how they judge the Government's cuts and its plans to reshape local councils. The Government has paused those council reforms until after the election, so the region is left waiting to learn what kind of local government it will eventually have.
Labour's Ginny Andersen Leads Chris Bishop in Hutt South, New Poll Shows
Cost of living, the economy and jobs top the list for 51% of voters
Mark
Why does a single-electorate poll matter so much here?
Mimi
Because Chris Bishop is a senior National minister. Seeing Ginny Andersen preferred in his own seat is a signal about how exposed the Government may be.
Luke
It's one poll, though. Do we know the sample size or margin of error?
Mimi
Not from what's reported here, so the details are thin.
Mark
The party vote has Labour on 36% and National on 17%. How striking is that?
Mimi
Very, for an electorate held by a minister. Greens at 18.5% also outpoll National.
Luke
But we don't know the margin on the candidate lead, and the reporting doesn't say how big it is. I'd be careful about calling it decisive.
Mark
What about the public service cuts?
Mimi
65.5% opposed, mostly Labour voters. National voters were more neutral or supportive.
Luke
Worth noting that opposition is partly just partisan. That split tells us less than the headline number.
Mark
And the council mergers?
Mimi
51% against, 31.5% in favour, 18% unsure, polled after the Government paused the plan. Decisions now wait until after the election.
El Pulso
- Labour's Ginny Andersen is preferred over sitting minister Chris Bishop in Hutt South, a seat that National has long regarded as its own.
- Labour sits at 36% of the party vote while National trails at 17%, a gap that unsettles a government already facing hard questions.
- Half of voters name cost of living and jobs as their top worry, and around three-quarters say they have already cut back spending.
- Two-thirds oppose public service cuts, and 51% reject merging the region's councils, leaving the Government's reform agenda on the back foot.
- With council amalgamation halted until after the election, the region's future governance remains unresolved and the seat is one to watch.
In the Hutt South electorate north of Wellington, a new Victor Consulting poll suggests that the long-held ground of a senior National minister may be shifting beneath him. Voters there appear to be weighed down first and foremost by the everyday pressure of money, jobs and rising costs, and their frustration is spilling into how they judge the Government's cuts and its plans to reshape local councils. The Government has paused those council reforms until after the election, so the region is left waiting to learn what kind of local government it will eventually have.
A new poll of Hutt South voters has put Labour's Ginny Andersen ahead of Chris Bishop, one of National's most senior ministers and the sitting MP for the seat. The survey, run by Victor Consulting, does not publish the size of her lead among candidates, but its party vote results tell a sharper story: Labour on 36%, the Greens on 18.5% and National on just 17%. For a seat tied to a senior minister, that National figure is striking.
What worries voters most is practical. Cost of living, the economy and jobs top the list for 51% of respondents, and around three-quarters say they have already trimmed their spending. Health and hospitals come next, a concern that landed on the same day Health NZ announced plans to hire 380 more nurses, midwives and health assistants.
The poll also found 65.5% of respondents oppose the Government's public service cuts, which have included job losses that National defends as cleaning up the books and trimming backroom bloat. Most of the opposition comes from likely Labour voters, while likely National voters are more neutral or supportive.
On local government, the Government had asked regions to prepare plans to merge councils, a reform that would be the most sweeping in decades. The process in the Wellington region moved forward in August, but on Thursday the Government halted the reforms, citing several problems with the proposals and promising to decide next steps after the election. The poll, taken after that pause, found 51% against merging Wellington, Lower Hutt, Upper Hutt and Porirua into one council, with 31.5% in favour and 18% unsure.
Taken together, the results paint an electorate where money worries dominate, cost-cutting is unpopular, and the merger idea has more opponents than backers. With the councils' future on hold, Hutt South is a seat worth watching closely.
A new poll of voters in Hutt South puts Labour's Ginny Andersen ahead of the sitting MP, Chris Bishop, a senior National minister. The survey was run by Victor Consulting, and it finds Andersen is the preferred candidate in the electorate. The source does not give the candidate-vote percentages, so the size of her lead is not known here.
The party vote shows more. Asked how they would vote if an election were held on the day they were polled, 36% of respondents chose Labour. The Green Party followed on 18.5% and National on 17%. TOP stood at 9% and New Zealand First at 8%, while Act and Te Pāti Māori each had 3%. National's figure is notably low for an electorate held by one of its most senior ministers.
The issues voters care about are mostly practical. Cost of living, the economy and jobs were the top concern for 51% of respondents, and around three-quarters said they had already cut their spending because of cost pressures. The health system and hospitals came next at 19.5%. On the Friday the poll was reported, Health NZ announced plans to hire 380 more nurses, midwives and health assistants to ease pressure on the frontline.
Victor Consulting also asked about the Government's public service cuts. Almost two-thirds of respondents, 65.5%, said they were against them. The cuts have included job losses, and National has presented them as a way to improve the Government's books and trim what it calls backroom bloat. Opposition came mainly from people who said they would vote Labour. Among likely National voters, higher proportions were neutral or supportive.
The third question was about council amalgamation. The Government had told regions to prepare proposals for merging councils or forming new authorities, which would be the most radical reform of local government in decades. In August, Upper Hutt City Council was co-opted into a proposal put forward by Hutt City, Porirua City, South Wairarapa District and Wellington City councils, which held the majority in the region. The Government's plan allowed that co-opting majority mechanism.
On Thursday, the Government announced it would halt the reforms, citing several issues with what had been proposed. It said it would decide on next steps after the election. The poll was taken after that pause was announced.
Respondents were asked whether they supported merging Wellington, Lower Hutt, Upper Hutt and Porirua into a single council. Some 51% were against combining councils in their region, 31.5% were in favour and 18% were unsure.
Taken together, the results show an electorate where money worries dominate, the Government's cost-cutting is unpopular, and the council merger idea has more opponents than supporters. With the reforms paused until after the election, the question of what happens to the region's councils remains open, and Hutt South will be a seat to watch.
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Politics & Governance