Five weeks after a contested Budget, the Albanese Government finds itself navigating a rare and unsettling reversal — One Nation has overtaken Labor in national polling, forcing ministers to defend not just their policies but the Prime Minister's political survival. The rise of Pauline Hanson's party, and her overtures toward a conservative coalition with Opposition Leader Angus Taylor, reflects a deeper restlessness in the electorate — one that governments across the democratic world have struggled to outrun. As comparisons to Keir Starmer's resignation in Britain begin to circulate, Labor is
Labor defends PM as One Nation surges, Hanson signals Coalition talks
We are governing Australia in the national interest
Mark
So One Nation is now polling ahead of Labor? That's a genuine shock, isn't it?
Mimi
It is. The Budget has done real damage. People feel lied to on cost of living, and One Nation is picking up that anger.
Luke
But we should be careful here—it's one poll. Roy Morgan is reputable, but one survey doesn't make a trend. We'd want to see it hold across multiple pollsters before calling it a reversal.
Mark
Fair point. Now, Hanson says she hasn't spoken to Taylor in years. How do you form a government with someone you haven't talked to?
Mimi
That's the thing—they probably don't need to have spoken recently. The preference negotiations happen through party machinery, not personal relationships. But it does suggest they're not exactly coordinated.
Luke
And we should note: Hanson said "in time" they'll talk strategy. That's not a done deal. It's a signal of intent, but nothing's locked in.
Mark
Marles keeps saying Labor governs independently. But the Greens do have Senate leverage, right?
Mimi
Absolutely. On NDIS, on tax—the Greens can block or demand concessions. Marles is trying to minimize that publicly, but it's real.
Luke
He's also being careful with his language. He says the Greens are "separate from the Government," which is technically true—they're not in cabinet. But they're not irrelevant either. That's the gap between what he's saying and what's actually happening.
Mark
And the Starmer comparison—is that fair?
Mimi
It's a warning sign for Labor, even if the circumstances differ. Starmer lost control of his party and the public lost faith. Albanese hasn't faced internal revolt, but the public trust is clearly shaken.
Luke
The key difference is Starmer faced a party mutiny. We don't have evidence of that happening to Albanese yet. But the polling damage is real, and that's what matters for his survival.
Le Pouls
- One Nation has surged past Labor in Roy Morgan polling — a result that would have seemed implausible months ago and now hangs over every ministerial appearance like an unspoken accusation.
- Pauline Hanson is openly signaling preference negotiations with Opposition Leader Angus Taylor, framing a conservative alliance as the antidote to what she calls a 'toxic Labor Greens, Teals government.'
- Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles is working to project calm authority, insisting Labor governs alone and that the Greens hold no meaningful leverage — a claim that grows harder to sustain as Senate arithmetic tightens.
- The Budget, handed down nearly five weeks ago, continues to bleed support — broken-promise accusations and cost-of-living frustration have not faded, and the electorate's anger shows no sign of cooling.
- Questions about Anthony Albanese's political survival are now being asked openly, with comparisons to Keir Starmer's resignation forcing Labor to publicly argue that Australian circumstances are different — a defensive posture that itself signals alarm.
Five weeks after a contested Budget, the Albanese Government finds itself navigating a rare and unsettling reversal — One Nation has overtaken Labor in national polling, forcing ministers to defend not just their policies but the Prime Minister's political survival. The rise of Pauline Hanson's party, and her overtures toward a conservative coalition with Opposition Leader Angus Taylor, reflects a deeper restlessness in the electorate — one that governments across the democratic world have struggled to outrun. As comparisons to Keir Starmer's resignation in Britain begin to circulate, Labor is learning what many governing parties discover too late: that the distance between confidence and crisis is measured in weeks, not years.
The Albanese Government is fighting a war on two fronts. A new Roy Morgan poll showing One Nation ahead of Labor has rattled ministers and reignited speculation about the Prime Minister's future — comparisons to British PM Keir Starmer, who resigned last week after a collapse in public confidence, are now circulating in Australian political commentary.
One Nation leader Pauline Hanson moved quickly to frame the moment as an opportunity. Appearing on Sunrise, she signaled that she and Opposition Leader Angus Taylor would eventually need to talk preferences and strategy, despite acknowledging the two haven't spoken since around 2019 or 2020. Her goal, she said, was to displace what she described as a 'toxic Labor Greens, Teals government.'
Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles offered a studied rebuttal. The Greens, he insisted, are 'completely separate from the Government' — a line he repeated with the firmness of someone who knows the question will keep coming. When pressed on whether Labor needs Greens votes to pass legislation through the Senate, he pivoted rather than answered, casting the government as the 'captain of the ship.'
The Budget remains the open wound. Nearly five weeks on, anger over cost-of-living measures and perceived broken promises continues to erode support. Marles rejected the Starmer comparison — 'there are different circumstances here' — and took aim at the Hanson-Taylor axis as an obstacle to progress. But the defensiveness of Labor's messaging tells its own story: the question of whether Albanese can hold on is no longer being whispered. It is being asked aloud.
The Albanese Government is fighting on two fronts: sinking poll numbers and a Budget that has left its own supporters angry. A fresh Roy Morgan survey shows One Nation now ahead of Labor, a stunning reversal that has forced ministers onto the defensive and raised the question whether the Prime Minister might face the same fate as Britain's Keir Starmer, who resigned last week after his own party's collapse in public confidence.
The political arithmetic is becoming urgent. One Nation leader Pauline Hanson signaled on Tuesday that she and Opposition Leader Angus Taylor may need to negotiate preferences and strategy to form government, though she acknowledged they have not spoken in years—not since around 2019 or 2020. "I haven't seen him since about 2019, 2020," she told the Sunrise program. She framed the potential partnership as a way to displace what she called a "toxic Labor Greens, Teals government," and suggested that "in time" the two conservative parties would "get to talk and strategise about preferences."
Labor's response has been to insist it needs no one. Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles appeared on Sunrise and rejected the premise that the Greens hold leverage over the government, particularly on contested issues like NDIS funding and tax reform. "We are governing Australia," he said flatly. "The Greens are completely separate from the Government. We are governing Australia in the national interest." When pressed on whether Labor would need Greens support to pass legislation through the Senate, Marles stopped short of confirming it, instead pivoting to the government's role as "captain of the ship."
The Budget itself remains a wound. Nearly five weeks after it was handed down, anger over broken promises and cost-of-living measures continues to burn through the electorate. The polling collapse has forced Labor to confront questions about Albanese's political survival—whether he might be rolled for a new leader, as happened repeatedly during the chaotic years before his tenure when both Labor and the Coalition cycled through prime ministers.
Marles pushed back against the comparison to Starmer's downfall, telling Nine that "there are different circumstances here." He argued that political dynamics play out differently across countries and that Australia's focus should remain on cost-of-living challenges. He also took a swipe at the opposition, saying "Pauline Hanson and Angus Taylor will keep working together to get in the way of all of that." Yet his defensiveness itself signals the Government's anxiety: the question of whether Albanese can hold his job is now being asked aloud, and Labor has to answer it.
Citations marquantes
I haven't seen him since about 2019, 2020— Pauline Hanson, on her contact with Angus Taylor
We are governing Australia. The Greens are completely separate from the Government.— Richard Marles, Deputy Prime Minister
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