Nearly one in four Colombians identified as independent or without party affiliation.
Two years before Colombia's next presidential election, a November 2020 Invamer poll revealed a nation at odds with itself: ideologically right-leaning yet drawn to a progressive frontrunner, distrustful of parties yet still sorting itself into camps. The survey, taken amid pandemic anxiety and economic strain, painted a portrait of an electorate whose disillusionment with institutions had grown deep enough to scramble the usual logic of political alignment. In this fractured landscape, Gustavo Petro's early lead suggested not so much an embrace of the left as a hunger for something different from the incumbent order.
- Nearly one in four Colombians claimed no party affiliation at all, signaling that the traditional political establishment had lost its grip on a restless and fragmented electorate.
- A paradox sat at the heart of the poll: Colombians identified as right-wing by a wide margin, yet the candidate leading presidential preferences was a progressive former mayor of Bogotá.
- Iván Duque's approval had slipped and nearly two-thirds of Colombians believed the country was heading in the wrong direction, opening a widening lane for opposition candidates.
- Pandemic dread compounded political unease, with nearly half of respondents expecting the coronavirus situation to worsen and fewer than one in seven believing it was under control.
- Institutional trust was eroding on multiple fronts — confidence in the armed forces fell ten points, and disapproval of the FARC peace agreement continued to deepen, leaving few anchors of consensus.
In late November 2020, with Iván Duque's presidency at its midpoint, an Invamer poll offered a revealing snapshot of Colombian political sentiment. Conducted during a period of economic hardship and rising pandemic anxiety, the survey found an electorate increasingly alienated from its own institutions — and already looking ahead to 2022.
The most striking signal was the collapse of party loyalty. Nearly 22 percent of Colombians identified as independent or unaffiliated, a figure larger than any single party's support. The Liberal Party, Democratic Center, and Radical Change each claimed between 11 and 15 percent, with the rest of the spectrum scattered in fragments. Yet when asked to place themselves ideologically, Colombians tilted right: 37 percent identified as right-wing, against just 14.7 percent on the left and 25.4 percent in the center.
This tension between ideological self-identification and actual voting preference became the poll's central puzzle. Despite the right's numerical dominance, progressive candidate Gustavo Petro led presidential preferences at 25.9 percent, ahead of centrist Sergio Fajardo at 20.5 percent and Marta Lucía Ramírez at 18.7 percent. In a three-way matchup, Fajardo narrowly edged Petro, but the margin was thin enough to keep the race genuinely open.
Duque's standing had weakened, with approval at 51.9 percent and 65.1 percent of Colombians saying the country was on the wrong track. Former president Uribe's ratings were nearly evenly split, while his predecessor Santos faced a slight net negative. Confidence in the armed forces had dropped ten points, and disapproval of the FARC peace agreement had grown to 68.4 percent.
The pandemic cast a long shadow over the entire survey. Nearly half of respondents feared the situation would worsen, and only 13.6 percent believed it was under control. On vaccination, the country was divided — 57 percent willing, 40 percent opposed — a split with real consequences as the government prepared its immunization rollout. Taken together, the poll captured a Colombia searching for direction, skeptical of its institutions, and not yet certain where to place its trust.
In late November 2020, with two years remaining in Iván Duque's presidency, a new survey from Invamer offered a portrait of Colombian political sentiment that revealed a country fractured along multiple fault lines. The polling, conducted between November 19 and 22 amid economic crisis and the early waves of the pandemic, showed a electorate increasingly skeptical of traditional institutions yet already leaning toward a progressive candidate for the next race.
The most striking finding was the collapse of party loyalty. Nearly one in four Colombians—21.9 percent—identified as independent or without party affiliation, a figure that dwarfed any single party's support. The Liberal Party claimed 14.7 percent, the Democratic Center 12 percent, and Radical Change 11.4 percent. The remaining parties scattered across the spectrum in diminishing fragments. This fragmentation reflected a deeper erosion of faith in the political establishment itself, even as Colombians were asked to imagine casting ballots two years hence.
Yet when asked to place themselves on the ideological map, Colombians tilted decisively rightward. Thirty-seven percent identified as right-wing, while just 14.7 percent claimed the left. The center held 25.4 percent, with 22.5 percent expressing no ideological affinity at all. This apparent contradiction—widespread rejection of parties paired with right-leaning self-identification—would become a central tension in the coming campaign. Senators and political commentators were already debating whether a meaningful center even existed in Colombian politics, with some arguing that fundamental disagreements on issues like public education made the middle ground illusory.
When asked directly about their voting intentions for 2022, however, Colombians surprised with a different preference. Gustavo Petro, the progressive former Bogotá mayor representing the left, led the field at 25.9 percent, followed by centrist Sergio Fajardo at 20.5 percent and Marta Lucía Ramírez at 18.7 percent. When the poll narrowed to the three frontrunners, Fajardo edged ahead with 36.5 percent to Petro's 34.8 percent, but the gap was narrow enough to suggest either could emerge as the main challenger to the right.
Duque's own standing had weakened considerably. His approval rating stood at 51.9 percent, down from earlier measurements, while 65.1 percent of Colombians believed the country was heading in the wrong direction. Former president Álvaro Uribe, the architect of Duque's political coalition, saw his favorable and unfavorable ratings nearly balanced at 48 and 47 percent respectively. Juan Manuel Santos, Duque's predecessor, faced deeper skepticism, with 49 percent disapproving against 43 percent approving.
The survey also captured the psychological toll of the pandemic and its intersection with political mood. Nearly half of respondents—48.2 percent—expected the coronavirus situation to worsen, while another 33.3 percent worried about a coming wave of infections. Only 13.6 percent believed the crisis was under control. When asked about vaccination, 57 percent said they would accept a vaccine, while 39.9 percent refused, a split that would prove consequential as the government prepared to roll out free immunization.
Perhaps most tellingly, confidence in core institutions had eroded across the board. Favorable opinion of the armed forces dropped ten percentage points to 58.3 percent. Support for the peace agreement with the FARC guerrillas fell further, with 68.4 percent now viewing it unfavorably—a five-point decline from earlier readings. The survey, conducted with a three-percent margin of error under conditions of economic strain and health emergency, captured a nation searching for direction and increasingly willing to consider alternatives to the incumbent coalition, even as it remained ideologically skeptical of the left.
Notable Quotes
The left seeks public education, the right says no, which proves the center does not exist— Senator Armando Benedetti, on the ideological spectrum
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why would a country that identifies as right-wing at 37 percent turn to Petro, a progressive, as its leading choice for president?
Because party identity and ideological self-identification aren't the same thing as voting preference. People can call themselves right-wing on abstract questions while still wanting someone from the left to actually govern them. Duque's approval was slipping, the economy was in crisis, and Petro was offering something different.
The poll shows 21.9 percent with no party at all. That's a massive number. What does that tell you?
It tells you the traditional party system had already lost its grip on Colombian politics by 2020. People weren't abandoning ideology—they were abandoning the institutions that claimed to represent it. That kind of dealignment creates openings for outsiders.
But Fajardo actually edges Petro when you narrow it to the top three. Why does the headline lead with Petro?
Because Petro's 25.9 percent in the full field is his raw support—people actively choosing him. Fajardo's 36.5 percent in the narrowed field is partly strategic voting, people settling for the centrist because they think he's more electable. Petro's base was more solid, more genuinely his.
The peace process approval fell to 68.4 percent unfavorable. That's a rejection. Why would that matter for 2022?
Because it shows the FARC agreement—Duque's signature issue—was becoming a liability. If you're an incumbent and your major policy is underwater, you're vulnerable. Petro had opposed the agreement's implementation but from the left, which gave him room to criticize without being seen as a warmonger.
What about the vaccine hesitancy at 39.9 percent? That seems high for 2020.
It does. That's before the vaccines even arrived, before the rollout, before people saw them work. It's a baseline of distrust—in government, in institutions, in the idea that anything being offered for free is actually safe. That distrust would shape the entire campaign.