Kenya's AI ambitions clash with Naivasha's water crisis

Naivasha sits in Kenya's Rift Valley, a freshwater lake that has sustained farming, pastoralism, tourism, and domestic life for generations. But in recent years, the water that flows into it has become unreliable. Residents report losing piped supplies. Livestock walk kilometers to drink. Schools struggle. And now, a massive data centre project has thrown the region's water future into sharper focus—even as the project itself sits stalled.

In 2024, Microsoft and G42, an artificial intelligence company based in the United Arab Emirates, announced plans to build a data centre campus near Olkaria, a geothermal zone on Lake Naivasha's edge. The project was part of a $1 billion digital investment package for Kenya. The companies said it would run entirely on renewable geothermal power and eventually scale to as much as 1 gigawatt of capacity. But in May 2026, the project stalled over concerns about available power capacity. The uncertainty has left a different question hanging: what would such a facility mean for water in a region where people already go without?

Microsoft and G42 promised water conservation technology and renewable energy. They did not disclose how much water the data centre would actually consume. Kenya Electricity Generating Company, which operates the geothermal complex at Olkaria, said the project remains at the design stage and declined further comment. For residents, the silence is troubling. Musa Olorkedienye, who lives near Olkaria, told Al Jazeera that communities have already lost reliable water access from KenGen. "Currently, we are relying on water vendors to get water, our animals are walking for kilometres, and we fear things could get worse as demand for water rises," he said. Pastoralist Isaac Leshishi added that increasingly harsh weather is compounding the pressure.

The lake itself is under siege from multiple directions. Population growth, agriculture, water abstraction, climate variability, pollution, and ecosystem degradation all compete for the same finite resource. Grace Kimani, a patrol leader with Lake Naivasha and Oloiden, a conservation group, told Al Jazeera that the data centre project could bring jobs and investment—but its water demand raises concerns about adding pressure to already competing needs, especially during dry periods. She called for transparency about the project's expected water demand, its source, and its cooling technology. She also urged water-efficient or water-free cooling systems, water recycling, and the use of treated wastewater. Silas Wanjala of the Lake Naivasha Riparian Association pointed to history as a warning. In 2010, the lake nearly dried up due to over-abstraction. "This could be repeated due to high demand for water by these investors in Olkaria," he said.

The numbers underscore the stakes. According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, Kenya has about 527 cubic metres of freshwater available per person—below the 1,000-cubic-metre threshold for water scarcity. By 2030, that figure could fall to about 475 cubic metres per person. A KenGen environmental assessment recorded that in July 2023, 195,165 cubic metres of water were abstracted from Lake Naivasha for domestic and commercial uses at Olkaria and for operations at Eburru. Of that, 153,918 cubic metres went to commercial operations at Olkaria. Those figures relate to existing operations, not the proposed data centre. The project's own water footprint remains unknown.

Farmer Eskimos Kobia sees the competition extending across the entire community. Farmers, pastoralists, schools, and investors will all face greater pressure as demand increases. Absolom Mukhuusi of the Naivasha Professional Association acknowledged that the technology sector could bring jobs, infrastructure, and new businesses. But he warned: "Even as we welcome the investors, our biggest fear is what happens to our water bodies and communities as water is diverted to Olkaria for the heavy users."

Geologist Kenyatta Otieno offered a counterpoint. He recalled how large flower farms once stressed the lake's ecosystem before many scaled back or left. The proposed data centre, he said, would have included a resource centre to monitor lake levels and weather patterns—tools that could guide future development and riparian land zoning. "The centre being built with water conservation in mind would be futuristic as Naivasha is generally a water-scarce area. It would be a model for future development," he said. Kenya has regulators in place: the Water Resources Authority manages abstraction and permits, while the National Environment Management Authority oversees environmental assessments. But attempts to reach officials at either agency were unsuccessful, as were efforts to contact Microsoft, G42, or Kenyan government officials about the project's status and water requirements.

For now, the project's eventual scale, design, and water consumption remain unclear. Leshishi's words capture the anxiety: "We are now competing with the multibillion-dollar companies for water, and we fear that we shall be the losers in the long run."