Kenya may close exam centres as El Niño rains threaten October testing

Kenya's examination season is about to collide with one of the country's most severe weather patterns in over a decade. Starting in early October, when students are meant to sit for national exams, heavy rains will sweep across 43 of Kenya's 47 counties and persist through January. The timing is unforgiving: the Kenya Junior School Education Assessment, the Kenya Primary School Education Assessment, and the Kenya Certificate of Secondary Education all fall during this window, creating a logistical crisis that the Ministry of Education is scrambling to manage.

The Kenya Meteorological Department issued the forecast during the 13th National Climate Outlook Forum in Nairobi, where government officials, scientists, and humanitarian workers gathered to prepare for what meteorologists are calling a significant rainy season. The conditions driving this deluge are two atmospheric phenomena working in concert: an Indian Ocean Dipole turning positive—a shift in sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern Indian Ocean—combined with El Niño. Charles Mugah, Deputy Director at the Kenya Meteorological Department, explained that when waters on the western side of the Indian Ocean, near Kenya's coast, become warmer than those in the east, rainfall intensifies. The current forecast suggests conditions could approach the severity of 2015, when widespread flooding devastated the country.

The geographic scope of the threat is staggering. Rainfall has already begun in twenty counties across the western highlands and rift valley. In another thirty-one counties—stretching from the coast to the central highlands to the arid north—rains will arrive between mid-October and late October, then continue into January. Only a handful of counties in the far north, including parts of Turkana, face below-normal rainfall; meteorologists warn of a 15 to 20 percent chance of mild drought in Turkana even as the rest of the nation drowns.

The Ministry of Education faces a stark choice: keep exam centres open in schools that may become unreachable, or close them and relocate hundreds of candidates. Dr. Kanyi Gioko, Director of Administration at the Ministry, acknowledged the possibility of centre closures but insisted examinations will proceed on schedule. The ministry has devised contingency plans to deliver exam papers via helicopter and drone to remote areas cut off by flooding. Schools in vulnerable regions, particularly in the north where afternoon flooding can isolate communities within hours, have been advised to consider radical scheduling changes—having students arrive at 6 a.m. and dismissing them before the heaviest rains arrive. Schools have also been told to stockpile food in advance, anticipating that supply roads could be severed for days at a time.

The challenge extends beyond logistics. Three separate national examinations are compressed into the same rainy period this year. Term Three concludes in late October, precisely when the junior and primary assessments begin, followed almost immediately by the secondary certificate exams. Hundreds of candidates face potential displacement from their school exam centres, with no guarantee that alternative arrangements will be seamless or equitable.

Edward Muriuki, Acting Director at the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority, stressed that forecasts alone are useless without action. "Climate information must be understandable, relevant and actionable," he said. The meteorological department has committed to releasing weekly and monthly updates as October approaches, offering detailed insights into rainfall onset, distribution, and cessation to help schools and the ministry make decisions in real time. Yet the window for preparation is narrow. Schools must decide now whether to stock supplies, alter schedules, or prepare for the possibility that their exam centres will simply close. The rains are coming. The exams cannot wait.