Jeffries Faces Progressive Holdouts in Speaker Race, but No Rival Has Emerged

Melissa Bean has some practical advice for the newest members of Congress: hire a good scheduler, and make sure that person schedules meals. Staff will run you all day, she says, passing you from one to the next like a football, and by evening you're starving. Bean, a Democrat from Illinois, knows the job. She first won a House seat in 2004, lost it in 2010, and is now returning as a freshman among more than 110 new members.

She is not the only familiar face among the newcomers. Rep.-elect Hilda Solis, a California Democrat, last served in 2009, when she left to become President Obama's labor secretary. Rep.-elect Jerry Carl, an Alabama Republican, left Capitol Hill early last year after losing a primary to Rep. Barry Moore, who is now moving to the Senate.

Bean was a moderate in her earlier tenure, and when asked about the natural unease between left-wing Democrats and centrists, she called the majority pretty united. Pressed on whether the tension is overstated, she said it always is, and called it a media thing.

But some progressives are not ready to publicly commit to Hakeem Jeffries, the House minority leader from New York, who is on track to become speaker in January. Many of them belong to a group of incoming members now called "The Bloc," something like "The Squad" of some years ago. They are not tipping their hand, and they are trying to extract legislative guarantees from Jeffries and others before they commit.

"We're not withholding votes," said Rep.-elect Adam Hamawy, a New Jersey Democrat. "What we're doing is saying we're undecided. We're not going to rubber-stamp anything." Rep.-elect Melat Kiros of Colorado said it isn't about the individual but about the agenda: which priorities, which floor votes, and what plan exists to fight for the bold change voters wanted. Rep.-elect Claire Valdez of New York said the focus should be on improving the lives of working people and helping them join unions.

The posture is not extraordinary. Democrats won big, progressives were part of that win, and members who back a leadership candidate without a concession would have to explain themselves to their base. Rep. Joe Courtney of Connecticut watched Nancy Pelosi manage post-election dissent in the past and thinks this round is weaker. He credits Jeffries with keeping the caucus marching in one direction over the last two years, which he said was not easy. Rep. Jim Himes, also of Connecticut, noted that a bigger majority is easier to manage than a tiny one, though managing Democrats is always a challenge.

No one has offered an alternative to Jeffries. "You can't beat somebody with nobody," Courtney said, putting "race" in air quotes. He warned against starting the Congress as in 2023, when it took 15 ballots to elect Kevin McCarthy. Rep. Glenn Ivey of Maryland was puzzled, comparing it to a coach who wins the Super Bowl by 30 points and finds people wanting him fired the next day. There is pressure from the other direction too. Many Democrats won deeply red districts, and their voters could notice whether they backed Jeffries. Rep.-elect Don Leonard of Ohio, who defeated Rep. Mike Carey, said on Instagram that party leaders told him in "no uncertain terms" that if he didn't support Jeffries, they would make his "life a living hell" and ensure he lost re-election.

Asked whether he has the votes, Jeffries did not answer directly. He said he would talk to every member about what the caucus has done and what comes next, then chuckled at the suggestion he lacked the votes. "I guess we'll find out next Wednesday," he said.

The math favors him. Democrats are expected to hold north of 260 seats, and the floor threshold is 218, so Jeffries would have to lose 42 votes to fall short. To become the nominee, he needs only 131 in the caucus. The real question is how he manages the factions when he takes the gavel on Jan. 3.