Japan, China hold maritime talks as Beijing simulates Taiwan attack

On a Monday in April, as Chinese fighter jets and naval vessels maneuvered in formation around Taiwan, senior diplomats from Japan and China sat down across a table to talk about how to avoid a collision at sea. The meeting was part of a dialogue that has continued since 2012, a regular channel meant to manage the friction between two major powers in one of the world's most contested waterways. But the timing was pointed. Taiwan's president, Tsai Ing-wen, had just returned from the United States, where she met with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy—a visit Beijing treated as a provocation, a breach of what it considers its internal affairs. The military exercises were China's answer.

Hong Liang, who leads China's boundary and ocean affairs division at the foreign ministry, arrived at the talks with a stated goal: cooperation. He wanted, he said, an "in-depth conversation" with his Japanese counterpart, Takehiro Funakoshi, who directs Japan's Asian and Oceanian affairs. But the subtext was harder to ignore. China views Taiwan as a renegade province and has never renounced the use of force to bring it under control. The wargames happening simultaneously—with Chinese warplanes and ships simulating strikes on the island—were a demonstration of that resolve, timed to coincide with the diplomatic meeting.

Japan's government was watching closely. Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno told reporters that Tokyo had been monitoring China's drills "with great interest." More pointedly, he framed the stakes in regional terms: stability in the Taiwan Strait mattered not just for Japan's security, but for the stability of the entire international community. It was a careful statement—not an accusation, but a signal that Japan saw what was happening and considered it significant.

The two nations have a long history of friction in these waters. The East China Sea contains disputed territory that both claim: islands that Japan calls the Senkaku and China calls the Diaoyu. Coast guard vessels from both countries regularly encounter each other in the waters around them. At their last meeting in November, Hong had criticized Japan for commenting on Chinese activity in the Taiwan Strait and had asked Tokyo to withdraw its ships from the contested seas. The dynamic is one of constant, low-level tension punctuated by moments of higher alarm.

The United States, which has no official position on who owns the islands, has made clear that any Chinese attempt to seize them would be treated as an attack on an American ally. That commitment shapes everything that happens in these waters. It is the reason China views Japan's statements about Taiwan as interference, and the reason Japan cannot remain silent when military exercises occur nearby.

There are small signs of effort to prevent the friction from igniting into something worse. Last month, China and Japan established a military hotline—a direct communication channel meant to help defuse air and sea incidents before they spiral. It is a modest tool, but it reflects an understanding on both sides that the risks are real and that some mechanism for talking down a crisis is necessary. The Monday meeting, happening as the wargames continued, was another such effort: diplomacy proceeding in parallel with military posturing, each side trying to signal both resolve and a willingness to manage the competition without letting it become conflict.