Japan Braces for a Wounded Trump Turning Toward Diplomatic Wins at Allies' Expense

On Monday in Paris, on the sidelines of a G7 foreign ministers' meeting, Japan's Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi sat down with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The meeting was brief by diplomatic standards, but Tokyo had reasons to want it. The White House was still absorbing the results of the November 3 midterm elections, in which President Donald Trump suffered what DW describes as a drubbing, and Japan wanted to gauge the mood.

Afterward, Japan's Foreign Ministry released a statement saying the two sides had agreed to further advance security cooperation to strengthen the deterrence and response capabilities of the Japan-US alliance. They also pledged to maintain close communication on the situation in the Indo-Pacific. The statement gave no further details.

The timing matters. In about a week, the leaders of the United States, China and Russia are expected to meet on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, set for November 18-19 in the Chinese city of Shenzhen. Tokyo's fear is that a weakened Trump may look abroad for a diplomatic quick win, something he can present as evidence of statesmanship, without weighing the interests of Washington's allies in the region.

Sebastian Maslow, a professor of politics at the University of Tokyo, laid out the concern. With Trump becoming a lame duck at home, he said, the president may use his authority to shift his focus to foreign policy. A US deal with China could give President Xi Jinping room to intensify pressure on Japan. With Sino-Japanese relations already severely strained, that would put Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in a difficult position and force her to reassess how she navigates US-China relations.

Margarita Estévez-Abe, an associate professor at Syracuse University's Maxwell School and an expert on Japanese politics, said Japan fears a transactional Trump who treats Taiwan as a bargaining chip. She noted that after the May summit with Xi, Trump described US arms sales to Taiwan as a good negotiating chip with China. She also said Tokyo is frustrated that Trump has not backed it over the rare earth export restrictions China imposed on Japan following Takaichi's comments on Taiwan last year. In her telling, the Trump administration treats the China-Japan feud as Tokyo's problem.

There are worries beyond China. Estévez-Abe said Trump has not damaged the US-Japan alliance the way he has strained NATO, but his outreach to Moscow and Pyongyang concerns Tokyo. The US relies on Japan as its main military base in the Indo-Pacific, so emboldening Russia and North Korea against Japan is not in Washington's interest. Still, she warned, if American softness raises the threat to Japan, Japanese trust in the alliance will erode. Japan can only hope that doesn't happen.

The options are limited. Maslow said Japan's security strategy stresses preserving the status quo, defending the liberal international order and containing China's role in the region, and it treats the US alliance as the cornerstone. Japan, he said, has no plan B if the alliance unravels. Calls for autonomous defense capability exist, but in the short term they are unrealistic given the limits of Japan's defense industry and its lack of key resources, including critical intelligence.

Over the past decade Tokyo has diversified its partnerships. It has stepped up defense cooperation with EU member states and NATO, forged a quasi-alliance with Australia, and joined minilateral frameworks across the Indo-Pacific, including one with the Philippines. Estévez-Abe said Tokyo hopes no major clash erupts during the remaining two years of Trump's term, so that Washington's resolve goes untested until a strategically more amenable administration arrives. Maslow was blunter: hope is not a strategy. He argued Japan must keep working to protect the alliance, with greater defense spending and safeguards for its economic security. The first signal may come in Shenzhen on November 18-19.