On a Monday in early June, Asia's two most AI-exposed markets, Tokyo and Seoul, climbed to record highs, carried by a technology boom that seems to be outrunning the war that has kept the world's oil routes uneasy for three months. Behind the rally stand SoftBank and Samsung, whose surges speak to a faith that the future will be built on chips and artificial intelligence. Yet the same screen shows Brent crude back near $94 a barrel, nearly a third above its pre-war level, because the Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut while Washington and Tehran haggle over its reopening and a 60-day ceasef
Japan and South Korea Stocks Hit Records as Oil Climbs on Fragile Iran War Ceasefire
Records on the screens, a closed strait on the map
Mark
Stocks at records while a war is going on. Why isn't the war weighing them down?
Mimi
Mostly because the AI story is overpowering it. SoftBank jumped 14%, Samsung 10.1%, and South Korea's May exports rose 53% on chip demand.
Luke
Worth saying that's a correlation in the reporting. The article ties the gains to AI enthusiasm, but it doesn't prove the war had no effect on prices.
Mark
And oil? It's up over 3%.
Mimi
Brent hit $93.95, against roughly $70 in late February. The Strait of Hormuz is largely closed and the U.S. is blockading Iranian ports.
Luke
Note the same day brought a U.S. strike on Iranian sites after a drone was shot down. That's the U.S. military's account; the piece doesn't give Iran's version.
Mark
So what are investors assuming?
Mimi
Capital Economics' Jonas Goltermann says they expect the strait to reopen sooner rather than later.
Luke
That's one economist's reading of market behavior, not a confirmed timeline. Trump hadn't decided on the 60-day extension, and Iran said no deal was final.
Mark
Any sign of strain in the region?
Mimi
Shanghai fell 0.3% after Chinese factory activity softened and export demand showed signs of slowing.
Luke
Still just one month of data, though. It doesn't tell us a trend.
Il Polso
- Tokyo's Nikkei and Seoul's Kospi closed at records, with SoftBank and Samsung leading the charge toward AI-fueled gains.
- Brent crude jumped 3.1% to $93.95, sharply above its roughly $70 level before the Iran war began.
- The Strait of Hormuz stays largely closed, and a U.S. sea blockade of Iranian ports tightens the squeeze on global shipping.
- A U.S. bombing of Iranian military sites after a drone downing threatens to unravel the fragile ceasefire talks.
- Trump has yet to decide on extending the 60-day ceasefire, leaving markets betting the strait reopens soon.
On a Monday in early June, Asia's two most AI-exposed markets, Tokyo and Seoul, climbed to record highs, carried by a technology boom that seems to be outrunning the war that has kept the world's oil routes uneasy for three months. Behind the rally stand SoftBank and Samsung, whose surges speak to a faith that the future will be built on chips and artificial intelligence. Yet the same screen shows Brent crude back near $94 a barrel, nearly a third above its pre-war level, because the Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut while Washington and Tehran haggle over its reopening and a 60-day ceasefire extension. Investors are wagering that the strait will open before long, and the whole gleaming scene rests on that hope.
On Monday, Tokyo's Nikkei 225 closed at an all-time high of 66,934.33, having briefly crossed 67,000 for the first time. The gain was powered by SoftBank Group, whose shares jumped 14% and made it Japan's most valuable listed company, edging past Toyota. In Seoul the Kospi rose 3.7% to a record 8,788.38, with Samsung Electronics surging 10.1%. South Korean exports had also jumped 53% in May, lifted by strong global demand for semiconductors. Over the past month the Nikkei has risen more than 12% and the Kospi roughly 27%.
The rest of Asia was more mixed. Hong Kong's Hang Seng edged higher, while Shanghai slipped after weak May factory data showed new export demand cooling.
Beneath the rally, the war with Iran grinds on. The U.S. said it had bombed Iranian military sites after Tehran downed an American drone, and negotiations over reopening the Strait of Hormuz continue. The strait remains largely closed, and Washington has blockaded Iranian ports. Brent crude climbed 3.1% to $93.95 a barrel, far above the roughly $70 it fetched before the conflict began in late February.
President Trump has met advisers but not yet settled on a plan to extend the ceasefire by 60 days, and Iran says no deal is final. Still, analysts such as Capital Economics' Jonas Goltermann note that traders assume the strait will reopen sooner rather than later. Wall Street set the tone the Friday before, with the S&P 500 notching its seventh straight gain to 7,580.06, led by technology names. For now, the next moves hinge on Trump's ceasefire decision and whether ships can finally pass through the strait.
On Monday, Tokyo's Nikkei 225 closed at 66,934.33, an all-time high, after earlier crossing the 67,000 mark for the first time and touching 67,231.28 during the session. The index finished 0.9% higher. Behind the gain was SoftBank Group, the investment company with heavy exposure to artificial intelligence, whose shares jumped 14% and made it Japan's most valuable listed company, ahead of Toyota.
South Korea moved even faster. The Kospi rose 3.7% to 8,788.38, also a record close, after an intraday peak of 8,874.16. Samsung Electronics, the country's largest company, gained 10.1%. Official figures released the same day showed South Korean exports up 53% from a year earlier in May, lifted by global demand for semiconductors. Over the past month the Nikkei has gained more than 12%, and the Kospi about 27%.
Elsewhere in Asia the picture was mixed. Hong Kong's Hang Seng traded 0.8% higher at 25,389.54. The Shanghai Composite slipped 0.3% to 4,057.74, after China reported over the weekend that May factory activity had softened, with signs that new export demand was slowing.
The rally is happening against an unresolved war. Three months after the conflict with Iran began, the question of whether it will end permanently keeps moving markets and pushing oil around. On Monday the U.S. military said it had bombed Iranian military sites after Tehran shot down an American drone. U.S.-Iran negotiations continued, including on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil and natural gas shipments. The strait remains largely closed, and the U.S. has imposed a sea blockade on Iranian ports.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose 3.1% in early Monday trading to $93.95 a barrel. In late February, before the war started, it was around $70.
On Friday, President Donald Trump met with advisers in high-level talks but had not yet decided on a tentative plan to extend the ceasefire by 60 days. Iran, for its part, had said no deal was finalized. Jonas Goltermann, chief markets economist at Capital Economics, wrote that despite another round of tit-for-tat attacks, market participants continue to assume the Strait of Hormuz will reopen sooner rather than later.
Wall Street had already set the tone. On Friday U.S. stocks reached more records, led by big technology companies. The S&P 500 added 0.2% to 7,580.06, its seventh straight gain. Dell Technologies surged 32.8% after better-than-expected results and a raised outlook on AI-related demand. Microsoft rose more than 5.4% and Broadcom 4.7%.
What to watch now is Trump's decision on the proposed 60-day ceasefire extension, and whether the strait actually reopens. Markets are betting that it will.
Citazioni salienti
Despite another round of tit-for-tat attacks, market participants continue to assume the Strait of Hormuz will reopen sooner rather than later.— Jonas Goltermann, chief markets economist, Capital Economics
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