At the Asia Society in New York, India's Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar placed two distant wars — in Ukraine and the Iran-Gulf region — within a much larger moral and economic reckoning, warning that their consequences are already cascading toward the world's most vulnerable populations. Grain cannot move, fertilizer cannot be made, energy cannot be trusted, and capital is fleeing — a convergence that he argued is not accidental but is the predictable result of powerful nations making decisions without accounting for those who will bear the cost. His warning was less a prediction than an indic
Jaishankar warns of 'major food crisis' as conflicts threaten Global South
Global South economies face severe food insecurity, energy crises, and financial distress; vulnerable populations at risk of malnutrition and economic hardship.
Energy crisis, food shortage, and capital flight colliding at once
Mark
So when Jaishankar says a major food crisis is coming in months, is he predicting something that hasn't happened yet, or is it already underway?
Mimi
He's describing conditions that are already in place—the disruptions to Black Sea grain shipments, the fertilizer shortages—and saying those conditions will produce a visible food crisis within months. It's not a prediction from scratch; it's a consequence of things already broken.
Luke
But "major" is doing a lot of work there. Major compared to what? Is he talking about price spikes, actual shortages of calories, or something else? The source doesn't quite pin that down.
Mark
He mentions the Iran-Gulf conflict as a new driver. How much of this is Ukraine versus Iran?
Mimi
Both matter, but they're hitting different systems. Ukraine disrupts grain and fertilizer flows. The Iran situation is primarily about energy—oil supply and pricing. Together they create this layered pressure.
Luke
Right, but we don't know the relative weight. Is the food crisis 70 percent Ukraine-driven and 30 percent Iran? We can't say from what he said. He's describing them as compounding, but not quantifying how much each one contributes.
Mark
He talks about capital flight from the Global South. Is that a new phenomenon or something that happens every time there's conflict?
Mimi
It's a pattern that repeats, but the scale matters. When investors get nervous, they pull money out of riskier markets and move it to places like the U.S. or Europe. In this case, he's saying it's happening now, adding to the stress on developing economies that are already dealing with food and energy shocks.
Luke
The source doesn't give us numbers on how much capital has actually left or where it's gone. We know it's happening, but we don't have a measure of it. That's a gap worth noting.
Mark
What does he mean when he says countries should use "sound common sense" about not putting others in distress?
Mimi
He's essentially saying that when you make security decisions—like how to respond to conflict—you should consider the spillover effects on other countries, especially poor ones. Don't just think about your own interests.
Luke
But that's a moral argument, not a factual one. The question is whether countries actually do consider those effects, and whether they change their behavior because of them. He's saying they should; that's different from saying they will.
The Pulse
- Black Sea shipping lanes are effectively closed to grain exports, while fertilizer production in Russia and West Asia has collapsed — and a super El Niño is accelerating what Jaishankar says will be a major food shortage arriving within months.
- Energy markets are being weaponized as a tool of statecraft, driving prices upward at the precise moment developing economies can least afford instability, creating a compounding double crisis of scarcity and deliberate manipulation.
- Capital is draining from Global South economies toward safe harbors in wealthier nations, stripping the very countries facing food and energy crises of the financial resources needed to absorb the shock.
- Jaishankar warned that political instability is already spreading along the fault lines of energy dependence, as it did after Ukraine — and that the Iran-Gulf conflict risks triggering the same chain reaction across a new set of vulnerable states.
- The minister's sharpest challenge was directed at the logic of geopolitical decision-making itself: that no nation can claim ignorance of the suffering its security choices impose on others thousands of miles away.
At the Asia Society in New York, India's Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar placed two distant wars — in Ukraine and the Iran-Gulf region — within a much larger moral and economic reckoning, warning that their consequences are already cascading toward the world's most vulnerable populations. Grain cannot move, fertilizer cannot be made, energy cannot be trusted, and capital is fleeing — a convergence that he argued is not accidental but is the predictable result of powerful nations making decisions without accounting for those who will bear the cost. His warning was less a prediction than an indictment: that the architecture of modern conflict is built on an indifference to consequence that history will not forgive.
Standing before the Asia Society in New York, India's External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar described a cascade of interlocking crises converging on the world's poorest economies — and named the wars in Ukraine and the Iran-Gulf region as their architects. The picture he drew was not of distant catastrophe but of imminent arrival: a major food shortage expected within months, not years.
The mechanics are already in motion. Grain shipments through the Black Sea have stalled. Fertilizer production in Russia and West Asia has collapsed. A super El Niño is compressing agricultural yields further. Each pressure point amplifies the others, and together they are creating conditions for widespread food insecurity across the Global South.
Energy is the second front. Jaishankar described a dual crisis — one rooted in genuine scarcity, the other in the deliberate use of oil supplies as a geopolitical instrument. When the two combine, prices rise at the worst possible moment, and the instability radiates outward. Capital, always sensitive to conflict, flows away from developing nations toward safer economies, draining the financial reserves of countries already struggling to feed and fuel themselves.
What animated Jaishankar most was the question of moral accountability. He argued that policymakers cannot claim ignorance of the consequences their decisions set in motion. Sound common sense, he said, should prevent one nation's strategic choices from pushing another into crisis — yet that is precisely what is unfolding. Some countries will preserve their autonomy through these pressures; others will find their foreign policy choices narrowed, their independence quietly eroded. The wars may be fought elsewhere, but the costs are being paid everywhere.
India's External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar stood before an audience at the Asia Society in New York on Monday and laid out a cascade of interconnected crises bearing down on the world's poorest and most vulnerable economies. The picture he painted was stark: a major food shortage looming within months, fertilizer supplies drying up, energy markets in turmoil, and capital fleeing developing nations for safer ground. The culprits, he said, were the wars in Ukraine and the Iran-Gulf region—conflicts that were reshaping the global economy in ways their architects may not have fully reckoned with.
The food crisis is taking shape in real time. Major grain exporters, particularly those shipping through the Black Sea, are unable to move their cargo. At the same time, the world faces significant fertilizer shortages because the key producers—located in Russia and West Asia—have seen their output collapse. Jaishankar noted that these pressures are being amplified by climate patterns, specifically a super El Niño event, creating a perfect storm for agricultural production. The result is a food shortage that he expects to arrive within months, not years.
But the crisis is not singular; it is layered. Energy markets are already stretched thin, and when geopolitical actors use oil supplies as a tool of statecraft, prices climb at precisely the moment when stability is needed most. Jaishankar described this as a double crisis—one part rooted in the actual scarcity of oil, the other in the deliberate manipulation of supply for political gain. The two feed each other, he said, creating an aggravated situation that destabilizes everything downstream.
The financial dimension compounds the damage. Every time conflict erupts, money moves. It flows away from the Global South toward safe harbors in developed economies, draining capital from the very regions least able to absorb the shock. When you stack energy crises on top of food and fertilizer shortages, and then add capital flight, the result is what Jaishankar called "very very stressful" for developing economies. The phrase was measured, but the weight behind it was clear.
What troubled Jaishankar most was the question of intention and responsibility. He pushed back against the idea that policymakers can simply claim ignorance of the consequences their decisions unleash. Countries, he argued, should not be so absorbed in their own interests that they ignore the basic needs of others. "Sound common sense" should prevent one nation's security decisions from pushing another into distress. Yet that is precisely what is happening.
The political fallout is already visible. After the Ukraine war, Jaishankar noted, energy instability fed directly into political instability in neighboring regions. He expressed concern that the Iran-Gulf conflict would follow the same pattern, destabilizing countries that depend on stable energy and food supplies. Some nations would maintain their autonomy and independence through these pressures; others would find it harder. Some would make adjustments to their foreign policy; some would resist. But the underlying dynamic was clear: conflicts in one part of the world were forcing choices on countries thousands of miles away, narrowing their room to maneuver and their ability to chart their own course.
Notable Quotes
If you have energy as a big crunch, and then food and fertilisers on top of it, and finance because every time there's a conflict, money moves towards safe harbours and away from the Global South, the net result of it has been really very very stressful.— S. Jaishankar, External Affairs Minister
Countries should not be so self-centred that they're in their own world and take your decision and say, 'Well, it was not my intention to make your life difficult'.— S. Jaishankar
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