Israel has once again arrived at the edge of a question it has faced many times before: who can gather enough hands to govern a divided country. With 53 seats for Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc, 48 for his opponents and a record 19 for Palestinian parties, no side has the 61 that a majority requires, and the outcome now rests on whether old suspicions can yield to the arithmetic of coalition. Beneath the numbers lies a deeper dispute about who belongs fully to the national story, a dispute that the campaign sharpened and that the coming weeks will test.
Israel's opposition faces a choice: govern with Palestinian parties or leave Netanyahu in power
What matters more: excluding Palestinians or getting rid of Netanyahu?
Mark
Netanyahu lost his majority, so why isn't the opposition simply taking over?
Mimi
Because the numbers only work with Palestinian parties. His bloc has 53 seats, Eisenkot's has 48, and the Palestinian parties hold a record 19. Nobody has 61.
Luke
And the opposition bloc alone can't reach 61 either. The majority exists only on paper until someone signs a deal.
Mark
What is Netanyahu saying about the result?
Mimi
That Palestinian-led parties stole the election. He has also called for investigations into foreign interference.
Luke
Worth stating plainly: police and the elections committee say there is no evidence of fraud. The claim is his, and it is unsupported.
Mark
Why did Palestinian turnout surge?
Mimi
Emma Graham-Harrison says many people who boycotted before feared another term for Netanyahu and his far-right allies, given the war, demolitions and crime.
Luke
That's her reading of voter motives. We have turnout and seat figures, but no polling on why individuals voted as they did.
Mark
Could the Palestinian parties join a government?
Mimi
The Joint List says no to joining, but may support a minority government in confidence votes. Ra'am joined a coalition in 2021.
Luke
And Eisenkot hasn't said no outright. His conditions just make a yes unlikely. Whether those conditions bend is unknown.
Il Polso
- Neither bloc holds the 61 seats needed to govern, and the country faces weeks of uncertain coalition talks.
- Netanyahu's claim that the vote was stolen, offered without evidence, has inflamed the political air and drawn rebukes from rivals and the president.
- The opposition's path to power runs through Palestinian parties, but Eisenkot's conditions for partners make that route politically almost closed.
- Herzog is preparing to invite a party to form a government, while a minority administration or a fresh election remains possible, and Netanyahu could linger as caretaker prime minister.
Israel has once again arrived at the edge of a question it has faced many times before: who can gather enough hands to govern a divided country. With 53 seats for Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc, 48 for his opponents and a record 19 for Palestinian parties, no side has the 61 that a majority requires, and the outcome now rests on whether old suspicions can yield to the arithmetic of coalition. Beneath the numbers lies a deeper dispute about who belongs fully to the national story, a dispute that the campaign sharpened and that the coming weeks will test.
When the final tallies arrived early Friday, the picture was stark: Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc had 53 seats, the opposition led by retired general Gadi Eisenkot had 48, and Palestinian parties had won a record 19. No bloc reached the 61 seats needed to govern. Many Israelis had already called this the most consequential election in the country's history, and now the country must find a way to be governed at all.
The campaign had been bitter. Netanyahu and his allies portrayed Palestinian citizens, roughly a fifth of the population, as a threat to the state, and on election day voters received a robocall falsely claiming Palestinian leaders had been caught with envelopes of cash. Since the vote, Netanyahu has insisted Palestinian-led parties stole the election, without evidence. Police and the central elections committee found none, and Herzog publicly warned against tarnishing an entire community.
Palestinian turnout, meanwhile, was historic. Voters who had once stayed away, weary of a system they saw as discriminatory, went to the polls because they feared another Netanyahu term would deepen the war's shadow, the rise of organised crime, home demolitions and the silencing of political speech.
The opposition's voters appear ready to form a government with Ra'am to unseat Netanyahu, but Eisenkot has set conditions that effectively bar Palestinian parties. The Joint List has said it cannot join an Eisenkot government over its support for military operations, though it has left the door open to backing a minority government. Ra'am, which once sat in Naftali Bennett's coalition, is watching closely.
President Herzog is expected to invite a party to begin negotiations, and the country's next steps will depend on whether that invitation goes to Eisenkot and whether his conditions soften. If they do not, a minority government, a fresh election, or a long caretaker period for Netanyahu may follow.
When the final tallies came in early Friday, local time, Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc had won 53 seats in the Knesset. The grouping led by his rival, retired general Gadi Eisenkot, had 48. Palestinian parties took 19, a record. No Israeli party has ever won the 61 seats needed for a majority on its own, so the country has always been governed by coalitions. This time neither bloc reached 61, and many Israelis had called this the most consequential election in the country's history.
The arithmetic leaves Netanyahu's far-right coalition without its mandate. The opposition has a clear majority only if Eisenkot's Jewish Israeli bloc is willing to make a governing pact with the Palestinian Israeli parties. President Isaac Herzog is expected to invite the party most likely to form a government to open negotiations. He has already urged politicians to keep an open mind. Yair Golan, leader of the centre-left Democrats, a junior partner in the opposition bloc, said on Thursday that he was meeting Eisenkot and others for initial talks. The country potentially faces weeks of rancour and uncertainty.
Since Tuesday's vote, Netanyahu has claimed that Palestinian-led parties "stole the election". He has offered no evidence, and Israeli police and the central elections committee have said there is none of fraud. He called for the elections committee and the Shin Bet to investigate foreign interference. Finance minister Bezalel Smotrich amplified the claims and called for the arrest of Arab Israeli leaders. Eisenkot said Likud and Netanyahu had embarked on a coordinated campaign to delegitimise the results. Herzog rebuked the prime minister, saying Israelis must avoid tarnishing an entire community. Qatar's foreign ministry spokesperson rejected as "ridiculous and dangerous" the accusation that his country interfered.
The claims followed a campaign in which Netanyahu and his allies framed Palestinian citizens, about 20% of the population, as a threat to the state. Netanyahu repeated a slogan that rhymes in Hebrew: "the right or Palestine". On election day, voters received a robocall purporting to come from the prime minister, falsely claiming that Palestinian party leaders had been caught with envelopes of cash. Guardian Middle East correspondent Emma Graham-Harrison called the effort to portray Palestinians as untrustworthy, dual-loyalty citizens both tragic and depressing, a racist trope that also appears in antisemitic attacks.
Palestinian turnout was historic. Many Palestinian citizens had boycotted earlier elections, either because taking part endorsed a discriminatory system or because they felt their representatives had little leverage. Graham-Harrison says the mood shifted this year. Voters were watching the war in Gaza and events in the West Bank, and were under pressure at home from a government that has allowed organised crime to soar, stepped up home demolitions and targeted political speech. They feared another Netanyahu term, with allies including security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, would accelerate all of it.
Two main Palestinian parties could be kingmakers. The Joint List, a group of mainly leftist Arab-led parties, is led by Yousef Jabareen. He has said it could not join an Eisenkot-led government because of that bloc's support for military operations in Gaza and southern Lebanon, but he has left open bolstering a minority government through confidence votes. Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, has a Jewish former police chief as its number two, signalling its willingness to work with Jewish Israelis and its focus on organised crime. Ra'am joined Naftali Bennett's government in 2021, the first Palestinian party in an Israeli coalition, but the pact collapsed after 18 months, partly over the occupied West Bank.
The opposition's own voters appear ready. A survey taken as polls closed on Tuesday found a clear majority of them supported forming a government with Ra'am to unseat Netanyahu. Eisenkot has not ruled out cooperation on grounds of race, but he has set conditions for any partner that Palestinian parties could not politically accept, which effectively bars them. Graham-Harrison notes the inconsistency: Palestinian citizens are heavily represented in professions from medicine to security, including much of the staff at Eisenkot's election night headquarters. She also points to a rarely cited precedent from three decades ago, when Yitzhak Rabin relied on Palestinian support for a minority government.
If the opposition cannot agree on a coalition or a supported minority government, Netanyahu may get a lifeline. He is already pushing for a right-wing coalition and would probably welcome fresh elections or a long stretch as caretaker prime minister. What to watch is whether Herzog's invitation goes to Eisenkot, and whether Eisenkot's conditions for partners soften.
Citazioni salienti
We must avoid tarnishing an entire community.— President Isaac Herzog, rebuking Netanyahu
Likud and Netanyahu have embarked on a coordinated campaign to delegitimise the election results.— Gadi Eisenkot
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Politics & Governance