On an autumn evening in Israel, the ballots had been cast but the verdict had not yet arrived, and the exit polls drew a picture of a country divided almost exactly in half. Two blocs, one led by Benjamin Netanyahu and one by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, each appeared to hold 51 of the 120 seats in the Knesset, short of the 61 needed to govern. The balance now rests with a third force, the Arab-led parties, whom both leaders have pledged not to join, so the question becomes less about who won than about what the country's political habits will permit. Under Israeli law the decision pas
Israel's Election Yields No Clear Winner as Exit Polls Point to Weeks of Coalition Talks
Neither bloc is projected to reach the 61 seats needed to govern
Mark
Both blocs are at 51. Why does that leave everything open?
Mimi
Because 61 is the threshold, and neither side is close. Add the Arab-led parties' projected 18 seats and the arithmetic changes, but only if someone is willing to work with them.
Luke
And right now two leaders say they aren't. Netanyahu and Eisenkot have both ruled that out, citing lack of shared values.
Mark
So could the 18 seats still matter?
Mimi
They could be decisive on paper. Analyst Asaf Ronel says the likeliest alternative to a deal is another election, unless leaders drop that stance.
Luke
Worth saying that's one analyst's read. And these are exit polls, not final results. The tally comes November 4, and the seat numbers could shift.
Mark
Does the biggest party get the first try at forming a government?
Mimi
Not necessarily. Herzog consults party leaders and picks whoever he thinks can assemble a coalition.
Luke
Which means nobody knows yet who gets the call. Netanyahu and Eisenkot are viewed as leading contenders, but that's an expectation, not a decision.
Mark
What's the worst case timeline?
Mimi
Up to 42 days for the first candidate, then more attempts, and potentially a dissolved Knesset and new elections within 90 days. Israel went through three rounds between 2019 and 2020.
Il Polso
- Neither major bloc reached the 61-seat threshold, leaving Israel's parliament in a stalemate that no single camp can break alone.
- Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot are stuck at 51 seats, and the 18 seats held by Arab-led parties have become the decisive and most contested variable.
- Rival politicians are trading claims of collapse and premature celebration, while the public waits for the official tally due November 4.
- President Herzog will select a candidate who then has 28 to 42 days to assemble a majority, with a real risk that failure triggers another election within months.
On an autumn evening in Israel, the ballots had been cast but the verdict had not yet arrived, and the exit polls drew a picture of a country divided almost exactly in half. Two blocs, one led by Benjamin Netanyahu and one by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, each appeared to hold 51 of the 120 seats in the Knesset, short of the 61 needed to govern. The balance now rests with a third force, the Arab-led parties, whom both leaders have pledged not to join, so the question becomes less about who won than about what the country's political habits will permit. Under Israeli law the decision passes through the hands of the president and then the Knesset, and until the final count arrives on November 4, the answer remains suspended.
On Tuesday evening, Israel's television networks released exit polls, and the figures settled very little. Neither of the two main blocs appeared to reach the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Netanyahu's Likud-led coalition and the opposition bloc led by Yashar, the party of former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, were each projected at 51 seats.
The reactions split along familiar lines. Eisenkot pointed to a loss of confidence in Netanyahu, while Yair Lapid called it a total collapse of the prime minister's camp. Foreign Minister Gideon Saar, a Likud member, warned against premature celebration and reminded listeners that Likud remains the largest party. Analysts were more measured. Ehab Jabareen saw a clear weakening of Netanyahu's bloc but cautioned against writing either his victory or his political end, noting that his opponents face their own hard task.
The formal process begins after the final tally on November 4, when President Herzog consults party leaders and chooses the candidate he judges most likely to form a government, not necessarily the leader of the largest party. That candidate has 28 days, extendable by 14, to bargain for coalition partners. If that fails, the process passes to other candidates, and ultimately to new elections within 90 days, with the current government remaining as caretaker.
Israel has walked this road before. Between 2019 and 2020, three elections were needed before Netanyahu and Benny Gantz formed a power-sharing government, which later collapsed over a budget. The Arab-led parties remain the pivot of this moment, yet both leading candidates have ruled them out, and analyst Asaf Ronel suggests that unless that position shifts, another election within months is the most likely outcome.
On Tuesday evening, Israel's major television networks released their exit polls from the legislative elections, and the numbers settled nothing. Neither of the two main blocs was projected to reach the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.
The coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party was projected at 51 seats. The opposition bloc, led by Yashar, the party of former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, was also projected at 51. Outside both camps, the Arab-led parties were projected to win 18 seats, which could make them kingmakers if other parties agreed to work with them.
The reactions came quickly and pointed in opposite directions. Eisenkot said the polls showed a lack of confidence in Netanyahu. Yair Lapid, the current opposition leader, called it a crushing defeat for the prime minister's bloc. "This is a total collapse," he said, "and the public has told them to go home." Foreign Minister Gideon Saar, a Likud member, called the celebrations premature. In a social media post he noted that Likud is the largest party in Israel and added that it is always good to learn something from the past.
Netanyahu has been prime minister for nearly 19 of the past 30 years and has survived political crises before. Ehab Jabareen, a Palestinian political analyst and researcher in Israel, told Al Jazeera the polls show a clear weakening of Netanyahu's bloc, but he cautioned against declaring either a Netanyahu victory or the end of his career. His bloc appears to have lost its majority, he said, but his opponents face a hard task building one. If neither side can govern, Netanyahu could stay on as caretaker while talks continue.
The formal process begins once the final tally is in on November 4. President Isaac Herzog will consult party leaders on whom they want as prime minister, then ask the candidate he judges most likely to succeed to try to form a government. That is not necessarily the leader of the largest party. With Likud and Yashar emerging as the strongest, Netanyahu and Eisenkot are seen as the leading contenders.
The chosen candidate has 28 days, which the president can extend by 14, for a maximum of 42. In that window, parties can bargain for policy concessions or ministerial posts. A candidate short of 61 seats could try a minority government backed by smaller parties, or a power-sharing deal with alternating prime ministers. A new government needs a confidence vote by simple majority, which can be fewer than 61 votes if some parties abstain.
If the first candidate fails, Herzog may ask another Knesset member to try within 28 days. If that also fails, a majority of Knesset members can put forward a third candidate, who gets a final 14 days. If deadlock persists, the Knesset is dissolved and new elections must be called within 90 days, with Netanyahu's government staying on as caretaker.
Israel has been here before. Gridlock forced three elections between April 2019 and March 2020, ending in a power-sharing deal between Netanyahu and his then-chief rival Benny Gantz, who were to rotate the premiership. That government collapsed a year later after failing to pass a budget.
The Arab-led parties are the sticking point now. Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have ruled out partnering with them, citing a lack of shared values. Israeli political analyst Asaf Ronel said the polls suggest an end to Netanyahu's "nightmarish government," but questioned whether other leaders can overcome their "racism and refusal" to cooperate with the Arab-led groups. Unless they drop that election promise, he said, the likeliest outcome is another election within months.
Citazioni salienti
This is a total collapse, and the public has told them to go home.— Yair Lapid, opposition leader
Likud is the largest party in Israel. It is always good to learn something from the past.— Gideon Saar, Israel's foreign minister
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Politics & Governance