Israel has once again arrived at a election that refuses to resolve itself, with Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc and Gadi Eisenkot's opposition each standing short of the 61 seats that would make a government possible. The quiet protagonist of this moment is the Arab electorate, which has turned out in record numbers and now holds the balance in a political culture that has long treated it as outside the circle of power. Whether that balance becomes influence or remains a fact no one wants to say aloud will decide how this story ends, and the answer will likely take weeks to reveal itself.
Israel's Election Yields No Clear Winner as Arab Parties Emerge as Potential Kingmakers
"The ball is now in Eisenkot's court."
Mark
Start with the headline number. Why do 54 and 49 matter so much?
Mimi
Because neither reaches 61. Netanyahu leads, but a lead isn't a majority, so both men need someone outside their blocs.
Luke
And those figures come from about 90 percent of the count. They're preliminary and could shift.
Mark
So the Arab parties are the story?
Mimi
They're the swing factor. Up to 19 seats, against 10 before, with record turnout in a community that's about 20 percent of citizens.
Luke
Note the wording: "as many as 19." That's a ceiling in the projections, not a result.
Mark
Why won't Eisenkot just ally with them?
Mimi
He's said he wants a Zionist government committed to universal conscription, which shuts out Arab and ultra-Orthodox parties. Analysts say his own bloc might fracture if he embraced the Joint List.
Luke
That last part is analysts' judgment, not something that has happened. What we know is what he said publicly.
Mark
What might the Joint List actually do?
Mimi
Its leader says they'll do everything to remove Netanyahu. Analysts expect outside support, like blocking no-confidence votes, as with Rabin in the 1990s.
Luke
But nobody has invited them in, and no deal exists. The 400,000 special ballots are also still uncounted.
Le Pouls
- Netanyahu's bloc sits near 54 seats and Eisenkot's near 49, leaving both well short of the 61 needed to govern.
- Arab parties, possibly holding up to 19 seats after record turnout, have become the pivot no one can comfortably use.
- Netanyahu has painted Arab voters as trying to steal the election, sharpening a campaign that already divides the country.
- Eisenkot's refusal to rule out Arab partners while insisting on a Zionist, conscription-based government leaves his path narrow and contested.
- About 400,000 special-site ballots are still uncounted, and final results due Thursday could shift the arithmetic before talks begin in earnest.
- If negotiations stall, a second election looms, with Netanyahu holding caretaker power and Arab lawmakers poised to shape outcomes from outside any coalition.
Israel has once again arrived at a election that refuses to resolve itself, with Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc and Gadi Eisenkot's opposition each standing short of the 61 seats that would make a government possible. The quiet protagonist of this moment is the Arab electorate, which has turned out in record numbers and now holds the balance in a political culture that has long treated it as outside the circle of power. Whether that balance becomes influence or remains a fact no one wants to say aloud will decide how this story ends, and the answer will likely take weeks to reveal itself.
By Wednesday evening, Israeli election officials had counted about 90 percent of Tuesday's ballots, and the result was already unsettling for both sides. Nobody had won. Netanyahu's hard-line bloc led the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot, but neither was heading toward the 61 seats needed in the 120-seat Knesset. The partial count gave Netanyahu about 54 seats and Eisenkot roughly 49.
The real surprise came from the Arab parties, Raam and the Joint List, which could together reach as many as 19 seats, nearly double their previous total. Arab citizens, about a fifth of Israelis, turned out in record numbers, a showing that may be the strongest in the country's 78 years. Netanyahu responded by telling supporters that Arabs were trying to steal the election, though officials reported no widespread irregularities. Eisenkot, for his part, would not say whether he would work with them, insisting only that none met his conditions.
That refusal puts him in a bind. Without Arab support his bloc will almost certainly fall short, yet his stated goal of a Zionist government committed to universal conscription rules out the very parties he may need. The two Arab lists differ: Raam, led by Mansour Abbas, has previously joined a coalition and has moved toward the mainstream, while the Joint List is seen as more hostile to Zionism. Its leader, Yousef Jabareen, says the ball is now in Eisenkot's court. Analysts expect the Arab lawmakers to support an opposition government from outside, but as one expert put it, there is still no partner on the Jewish side.
Until a government forms, Netanyahu remains caretaker prime minister, and his allies are floating a unity government with Eisenkot and the centre, an outcome that would suit him well. Around 400,000 special-site ballots will be counted by Thursday, and weeks of talks are likely to follow. If they fail, the country may face a second election, as it has before.
By Wednesday evening in Israel, election officials had counted about 90 percent of the ballots from Tuesday's vote, and the picture was already clear enough to unsettle both sides: nobody had won. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's hard-line bloc held a modest lead over the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot, but neither appeared headed for the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.
The partial count put Netanyahu's coalition at about 54 seats and Eisenkot's at roughly 49. Two Arab parties, Raam and the Joint List alliance, could reach as many as 19 seats between them, up from 10 in the outgoing Parliament. Those numbers could still shift. The count has two tiers. Officials have tallied more than 88 percent of ballots cast at regular polling stations, with that work expected to finish in the coming hours. A separate set of more than 400,000 ballots, roughly 7 percent of the total, was cast at special sites such as military bases, prisons and hospitals. Those are not expected to be counted before Thursday evening, when final official results may come out.
The Arab vote is the surprise. Arab citizens make up about 20 percent of Israelis, and record turnout appears to have produced their largest vote totals in generations, possibly since Israel's founding 78 years ago. Their previous best was 15 seats in 2020. Turnout among Arab Israelis has traditionally trailed Jewish turnout, reflecting doubts that they can influence national decisions.
The campaign made them a target. Netanyahu told supporters that Arabs were "trying to steal the election," though electoral officials reported no widespread irregularities. He repeatedly invoked Arab voters to rally his right-wing base and vowed to keep them out of power. Eisenkot largely declined to say whether he would partner with Arab parties if needed to topple Netanyahu, saying only that none met his conditions.
That leaves Eisenkot in a bind. He has denounced Netanyahu as unfit to lead, yet on Wednesday he said he was focused on a government that is both Zionist and committed to universal military conscription, language that rules out Arab parties and ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties alike. Without the Arab parties, analysts say, his bloc will almost certainly fall short. Raam alone would not be enough; he would also need the Joint List, and analysts say he would struggle to hold his bloc together if he made common cause with it, given the blowback from many Jewish voters.
The two Arab parties differ. Raam, socially conservative with roots in Islamist politics, has gained some mainstream acceptance by emphasizing Palestinian statehood less. Its leader, Mansour Abbas, joined the short-lived 2021 government that unseated Netanyahu, the only time an independent Arab party has sat in an Israeli coalition. He has accepted Israel's Jewish character and publicly considered bringing Arabs into national service, and in this campaign he named a Jewish centrist Zionist and former senior police officer, Yoav Segalovitz, as number two on his list. The Joint List, three smaller parties including a Jewish-Arab leftist faction and a Palestinian nationalist one, is seen as more antagonistic toward Zionism, and it appears to be the larger of the two. Both Raam and some Joint List members condemned the Oct. 7, 2023, attack, while criticizing Israel's war in Gaza.
The Joint List said it would "do everything in its power" to remove Netanyahu. Its leader, Yousef Jabareen, said Netanyahu knows there is no majority to unseat him without Arab parties, and that "the ball is now in Eisenkot's court." Analysts think the list is likelier to back Eisenkot from outside, for example by blocking no-confidence votes, as Arab lawmakers did for Yitzhak Rabin's minority government in the 1990s. Thair Abu Rass, an expert on Arab politics, said Arab politics is moving toward the Jewish Zionist mainstream but "there's no partner on the Jewish side."
Netanyahu, who stays caretaker prime minister until a government forms, has allies floating a broad unity government with Eisenkot and centrists, a comfortable outcome for him. Weeks of talks are likely, and failure could mean a second election, as has happened before. The Knesset opens Nov. 10 with the swearing-in of its 120 members, and Netanyahu's opponents may be well placed to shape the legislative process even without a government.
Citations marquantes
Netanyahu knows that without the Arab parties, there's no majority to unseat him. That's why he incites against us.— Yousef Jabareen, Joint List leader
There's no partner on the Jewish side to create an alternative reality.— Thair Abu Rass, expert on Israel's Arab politics
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Politics & Governance