On a night when Israel's ballot boxes had barely begun to speak, two men who both claimed the country's future stood before their supporters, each reading the same uncertain signs as proof of their own rightness. The exit polls left the nation split almost exactly in half, and the question of who governs now rests on a minority that has long been pushed to the margins of Israeli power. It is an old story in a new form: a democracy that must decide not only whom to trust, but whether it is willing to let those it has excluded hold the key.
Israel's Election Ends Without a Clear Winner as Exit Polls Show Netanyahu and Opposition Deadlocked
Both men spoke as winners, and the count had barely begun
Mark
Both men spoke as winners. Who actually won?
Mimi
Nobody yet. Exit polls show the blocs roughly even, and only a fifth of the vote, nearly a million ballots, had been counted by early Wednesday.
Luke
And the polls themselves moved. They first favored Eisenkot, then one showed Netanyahu slightly ahead and two showed a tie. Israeli exit polls have a spotty record in close races, so I wouldn't lean on any of them.
Mark
Why do the Arab parties matter so much?
Mimi
They're projected at as many as 17 or 18 of 120 seats, a record. Without them, neither bloc appears able to reach a majority.
Luke
Projected is the key word. That's a poll range, not a result. Also, neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot's camp has embraced them.
Mark
Is there history here?
Mimi
Raam joined Bennett's coalition in 2021. It collapsed after about a year, and angry right-wing voters went back to Netanyahu.
Mark
Could a unity government break the deadlock?
Luke
Analysts are discussing it, but nothing in the reporting says either man is willing. Each would want to be prime minister, and Eisenkot calls Netanyahu unfit.
Mimi
And the special ballots from bases, hospitals, prisons and embassies could still shift things. Last time they leaned toward Netanyahu's side.
O Pulso
- Exit polls show Netanyahu's bloc and Eisenkot's opposition locked in a near-tie, with neither side able to reach a governing majority alone.
- Two Arab parties, Raam and the Joint List, may win a record 17 or 18 seats, suddenly placing them at the center of every calculation.
- Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have resisted bringing those parties in, and each side's rhetoric hardens as the arithmetic tightens.
- Hundreds of thousands of uncounted military, hospital, prison and embassy ballots could still tip the outcome, and President Herzog must decide who gets the first chance to build a coalition.
On a night when Israel's ballot boxes had barely begun to speak, two men who both claimed the country's future stood before their supporters, each reading the same uncertain signs as proof of their own rightness. The exit polls left the nation split almost exactly in half, and the question of who governs now rests on a minority that has long been pushed to the margins of Israeli power. It is an old story in a new form: a democracy that must decide not only whom to trust, but whether it is willing to let those it has excluded hold the key.
Past midnight in Israel, with the count barely begun, Gadi Eisenkot took the stage before cheering supporters of his Yashar party. The former military chief, whose son was killed in the Gaza war, called the night a referendum and declared, "The public wants change."
Hours later, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appeared, sounding triumphant. He claimed Likud had become the largest party, mocked the pre-election polls that had shown him trailing, and spoke of forming a strong right-wing government. He treated the exit polls as only a preview, since he is serving as caretaker prime minister.
The television exit polls had shifted several times, and they have a poor record in close races. Turnout was the highest in a generation. The real story, though, was the projected strength of the Arab parties, the socially conservative Raam and the left-wing Joint List, which could win as many as 18 of 120 seats. Their leaders spoke of turning frustration into hope and of replacing Netanyahu's government by every means possible. Many Arab voters said they were angry over the treatment of Palestinians and over policies that make them feel like second-class citizens.
The arithmetic is the problem. Without those parties, neither bloc can reach a majority, yet Netanyahu has ruled them out and Eisenkot's partners have balked too. Only Raam has ever sat in government, and that experience once fractured the right and helped return Netanyahu to power.
Bennett, now part of Eisenkot's alliance, said the government "of Oct. 7 will go home." Eisenkot warned security officials to resist any political misuse of the military, and accused Netanyahu of pushing for renewed attacks on Iran for his own political gain.
For now, the outcome is unresolved. Military and overseas ballots may still shift the result, and Herzog will soon decide who is invited to try to form a government. Analysts speak of a unity deal, but the bitterness between the two leaders makes that unlikely.
Past midnight in Israel, with the count barely begun, Gadi Eisenkot walked onto a stage to the cheers of flag-waving supporters and embraced members of his Yashar party. The former military chief, whose son was killed in the Gaza war, gave what amounted to a victory speech. "We've made history," he said, and called the vote a referendum on who should lead the country. "Tonight we got the answer. The public wants change."
A few hours later, at 3:15 a.m., Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took his own stage, looking reinvigorated, and sounded just as triumphant. He said it was clear his Likud party had become the largest in Israel, and he mocked months of pre-election polls that had shown it trailing Eisenkot's. "We must form a strong right-wing government," he declared. He listed enemies of Israel who have been killed, among them Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and said Iran is weaker than ever. He added that with his "friend" President Trump the Iranian threat could be removed for good. He also acknowledged that, as a caretaker prime minister, he was treating the exit polls as only a preview.
Those polls, from Israel's three largest television networks, first showed a small lead for Eisenkot's anti-Netanyahu alliance. Updated versions then shifted: one now has Netanyahu's bloc slightly ahead, and the other two show a tie. Israeli exit polls have a spotty record, particularly in tight races. Turnout was the largest in a generation. By early Wednesday, election authorities had counted nearly a million votes, about a fifth of the total cast, and the full count will take days.
The most striking result was the projected strength of two Arab parties: the socially conservative United Arab List, known as Raam, and the left-wing Joint List. Exit polls suggest they could win as many as 17 or 18 of the 120 seats, their best showing ever. Mansour Abbas, Raam's leader, said Arab voters, about 20 percent of Israel's population, had turned "frustration and despair" into "hope." He said he wants to replace Netanyahu's government "in every possible way." Many Arab voters said they were furious over Netanyahu's treatment of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza and over policies they feel make Arab citizens second-class. Netanyahu, throughout the campaign, made overt appeals to anti-Arab prejudice.
The arithmetic is the problem. If the polls hold, neither bloc can reach a majority without those parties, unless some party defects. Netanyahu has effectively ruled them out, and Eisenkot and his partners have balked as well. Bezalel Smotrich, the finance minister and leader of Religious Zionism, said parties that cannot condemn the Oct. 7 massacre or declare Hamas a terrorist organization are "not legitimate actors in Israeli politics." Only Raam has ever sat in a government, joining Naftali Bennett's short-lived anti-Netanyahu coalition in 2021. That outraged many right-wing Jewish voters, and after it collapsed roughly a year later they backed Netanyahu, who formed the most hard-line government in Israeli history.
Bennett, who leads a party in Eisenkot's alliance, said the sitting prime minister had lost, tying him to the Oct. 7, 2023 attack. "The government of Oct. 7 will go home," he said. He pledged that the opposition would set ego aside to form a government insisting on conscription of ultra-Orthodox Jews, without saying whether Likud or Arab parties might be partners.
Eisenkot also sent a pointed message to security chiefs and public servants, saying Netanyahu leads a transitional government that has lost public confidence. "Stand strong and firm against any attempt to challenge you," he said. Citing reports that Netanyahu has been pushing for renewed attacks on Iran, he warned: "Netanyahu, don't dare use Israel's security for your political needs."
Two uncertainties remain. Hundreds of thousands of ballots from military bases, hospitals, prisons and embassies are not reflected in exit polls, and in the previous election they tended to favor Netanyahu's camp. After official totals, President Isaac Herzog will invite the leader he thinks best placed to build a coalition, normally needing 61 lawmakers, though Eisenkot has floated a minority government. Analysts are weighing a unity government, but Eisenkot's voters deeply despise Netanyahu, Eisenkot calls him unfit, and neither is likely to yield the premiership.
Citações Notáveis
Tonight we got the answer: The public wants change.— Gadi Eisenkot, opposition leader
We must form a strong right-wing government.— Benjamin Netanyahu, prime minister
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Politics & Governance