Israel's Election Deadlocks as Netanyahu and Eisenkot Blocs Stall Short of 61 Seats; Arab Parties Emerge as Kingmakers

Israel woke to an election that settled very little. Early exit polls showed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc tied with the opposition grouping led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, and later partial counts put Netanyahu's right-wing camp at 53 seats and the Jewish-led opposition at 48. Both are well short of the 61 needed for a majority in the 120-member Knesset.

Turnout was 77.7%, the highest since 1999. It was the first national vote since Hamas's attack of October 7, 2023, and it doubled as a verdict on Netanyahu, whom opponents blame for the security failures that preceded the attack and for refusing to set up an independent commission of inquiry. Voters were also weighing the wars in Gaza and with Iran and Israel's growing international isolation. Netanyahu has served 19 years as prime minister, longer than anyone before him, and has survived political crises before. Eisenkot's Yashar party leads the alliance trying to unseat Likud and its right-wing allies.

The arithmetic now runs through Arab-led parties. Ra'am and the Joint List won a record number of votes and are projected to take a combined 19 seats, enough to leave both camps short on their own. Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats, counts them in the opposition bloc and says that gives it 67 seats against Netanyahu's 53. He argued the opposition should declare now that it will form a new government, and said Ra'am's leader, Mansour Abbas, could be part of it, noting that Netanyahu himself once wanted Abbas in a coalition.

Ahmad Tibi, who heads the Joint List's parliamentary bloc, told CNN his party would help if asked and wants to support the opposition's candidate. He said it did not seek ministerial posts or a seat in an Eisenkot-led government. It wants commitments on crime in Arab communities and an end to demolitions of Bedouin homes, which he said have increased under Netanyahu's government. The movement Standing Together launched a petition urging Eisenkot, Bennett, Jabarin, Lapid, Golan, Abbas and Lieberman to form a Jewish-Arab government of change.

Not everyone on the opposition side agrees. Sharren Haskel, who leads the Israel First party, called for a government formed "without the Arabs" and blamed Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich for pushing Palestinian citizens of Israel toward what she called anti-Zionist parties. She wants a broad national government of rival Jewish parties that excludes both Arab-led and ultra-Orthodox parties. She founded Israel First in July after resigning as deputy foreign minister over legislation freezing arrests of ultra-Orthodox men who refused military service.

Likud took a harder line, demanding a police and Shin Bet investigation into alleged fraud and intimidation. In a statement it claimed the election was "stolen" by Arab parties, citing bribery, threats, violence, forgeries and illegal software used to mobilize voters. The statement offered no evidence in the reporting available. From Washington, President Donald Trump told Axios that Netanyahu was in "pretty good shape" and that his endorsement had made a big difference. Asked about helping form a Netanyahu-led government, he said, "I will take a look."

The count is not finished. The Central Elections Committee estimates that 430,000 to 480,000 "double-envelope" ballots were cast by soldiers, police personnel, diplomats and others, fewer than the roughly 600,000 first reported. They are counted separately after officials check that no one voted twice. Military turnout was 79.9%, up 6.2 points from 2022, across 809 polling stations that included posts in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria. The IDF does not disclose how many soldiers actually voted.

The full count is expected Thursday afternoon, with final official results due November 4. President Isaac Herzog expects to receive them next week from Supreme Court Justice Noam Sohlberg, then will consult each Knesset faction. He urged everyone to arrive with an open mind and to do all they can to avoid another election. What to watch: the special ballots, and whether Jewish opposition leaders will bring Arab-led parties into a government.