On a November morning, Israel learned that its voters had drawn a map without a clear road through it: neither the bloc around Benjamin Netanyahu nor the one gathered around Gadi Eisenkot reached the 61 seats that make a Knesset majority. The question now passes to the President's residence in Jerusalem, where the parties must decide who will be asked to govern. Standing at the center of the arithmetic are the Arab parties, who won a record number of seats, and whose inclusion would be the simplest path to power and yet remains the hardest thing for many Jewish-led parties to accept.
Israel's Election Deadlock: Neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot Reaches 61; Arab Parties Win Record 19 Seats
Neither bloc reached 61, and 19 Arab seats sit in between
On a November morning, Israel learned that its voters had drawn a map without a clear road through it: neither the bloc around Benjamin Netanyahu nor the one gathered around Gadi Eisenkot reached the 61 seats that make a Knesset majority. The question now passes to the President's residence in Jerusalem, where the parties must decide who will be asked to govern. Standing at the center of the arithmetic are the Arab parties, who won a record number of seats, and whose inclusion would be the simplest path to power and yet remains the hardest thing for many Jewish-led parties to accept.
Israel woke on November 4 to election results that settled nothing. The bloc led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, built from Likud, United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit, Shas and Religious Zionism, fell short of 61 seats, and so did the rival bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot, which includes Yashar, B'Yachad, The Democrats and Yisrael Beytenu. Neither side can govern without finding more seats.
The most obvious source of those seats is the Arab parties. The Joint List and Ra'am together won a record 19 seats, the best result in Israel's history, enough to tip either bloc past the majority line. But the arithmetic is easier than the politics. An informal veto keeps Jewish-led parties from partnering with Arab-led factions, and the Netanyahu-led bloc even tried to bar those lists from running at all before Israel's Supreme Court struck that move down.
For Netanyahu the calculation is personal as well as political. He faces a corruption trial during ongoing wars, and a partnership with Arab parties could in theory keep him in office. He has rejected it, calling such a partnership a shame and disgrace, and reporting notes that many Jewish-led parties see it as untenable after the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023.
The process now moves to the president's residence. President Isaac Herzog will hear from every party that won seats, each naming whom it recommends as prime minister. Under Israeli law he has seven days from the official results to complete consultations and assign the task, which means parties have until November 11 to stake their claim. Netanyahu remains caretaker until a new government wins a confidence vote, and if every route fails, Israel returns to the polls. The week ahead will show whether any party is willing to cross the line it has drawn around the Arab lists.
On the morning of November 4, Israel woke to election results that settled nothing. Neither the bloc led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor the rival bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot reached the 61 seats needed for a majority in the Knesset. Deliberations over who will form the next government begin today.
Netanyahu's bloc is made up of his Likud Party, United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit, Shas and Religious Zionism. Eisenkot's bloc comprises Yashar, B'Yachad, The Democrats and Yisrael Beytenu. Each came up short, which means neither can govern without finding more seats somewhere.
The clearest place to look is the Arab parties. The Joint List alliance and Ra'am together won a record 19 seats, the best result for Arab parties in Israel's history. That total is large enough to push either Netanyahu's or Eisenkot's bloc past the 61-seat line, which is why they are being described as potential kingmakers.
The arithmetic is easier than the politics. An informal anti-Arab veto limits Jewish-led parties, reflecting their long reluctance to build a coalition with Arab-led factions. The same attitude showed in the Netanyahu-led bloc's attempt to bar the Joint List and Ra'am from contesting the election at all. Israel's Supreme Court struck that decision down.
For Netanyahu the stakes are personal as well as political. He is facing a corruption trial and a country engaged in ongoing wars, and a coalition with Arab parties could, in theory, secure him another term. He has ruled it out, saying such a partnership would be "a shame and disgrace." Reporting also notes that teaming up with Arab parties could be anathema to Jewish-led parties after the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023.
The process now moves to the president's residence in Jerusalem. President Isaac Herzog is expected to begin consultations soon after the results are announced. Delegations from every party that won seats will visit him and say whom they recommend as prime minister.
Under Israeli law, the president has seven days from the publication of official results to finish those consultations and assign someone the task of forming a government. With results published on November 4, parties have until November 11 to stake their claim.
Once a candidate is named, the Basic Law sets all subsequent deadlines. Netanyahu stays on as caretaker leader until a new government wins a confidence vote. If every route fails, Israel could be sent back to the polls for another snap election to break the deadlock. The thing to watch over the next week is whether any party crosses the line it has publicly drawn around the Arab lists.
Citações Notáveis
A coalition with Arab parties would be "a shame and disgrace."— Benjamin Netanyahu
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Politics & Governance