Israeli Voters Rebuke Netanyahu, but Exit Polls Point to No Clear Winner

As the exit polls flashed across Israeli television early Wednesday, supporters at Gadi Eisenkot's party headquarters jumped and chanted his name. Down the road at Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's headquarters, the room was filled mostly with journalists. The few loyalists there draped themselves in flags bearing his face and kissed posters of him.

The polls, released by major Israeli TV stations, suggested Netanyahu's bloc and Eisenkot's each won about 51 seats in the 120-seat parliament, with Arab parties taking about 18. The opposition therefore appears to hold a solid majority over Netanyahu's allies, but the pieces are disparate and no one clearly reaches the 61 seats needed to govern. The Associated Press reports that Netanyahu's Likud could still emerge as the largest single party. But voters, disappointed in his alliance with the far right and angry about draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews, appear to have shrunk his bloc's majority and jeopardized his return to power. His coalition had peaked at 68 members before it began to disintegrate over the past year.

Exit polls, like all surveys, can be wrong. Preliminary results were expected within hours and final results within days, and they may differ from the polls. Netanyahu had made no public statement hours after the polls came out.

The simplest route to a government would have Eisenkot, a former military chief, partner with the Arab-led parties. That would be politically hard and could alienate other opposition factions. Pressure on him to strike such a deal will be heavy, while Netanyahu and his allies are likely to portray any such alliance as illegitimate and even treasonous. Netanyahu had warned before the vote that Arab parties were getting "truly massive support" and turning out in "unprecedented numbers."

Turnout was the highest since 1999. The Central Elections Committee put it at more than 77% of over 7 million eligible voters, and tens of thousands reportedly traveled from overseas to cast ballots. Next, Israel's president will ask the leader with the best chance of building a coalition, usually the head of the largest party, to try. If Likud finishes first, Netanyahu could claim that right. No party has ever won an outright majority in Israel, and minority governments are possible but depend on outside support to pass laws. If no coalition emerges, new elections could come early next year. Israel held five elections between April 2019 and November 2022 because of a similar stalemate.

Speaking early Wednesday, Eisenkot said the results showed a "lack of confidence" in Netanyahu and vowed to form a government. "The people decided in favor of change," he told cheering supporters, promising "a new era — an era of hope." He also warned Netanyahu, now a caretaker prime minister, not to "dare use Israel's security for your political needs," an apparent reference to reports that Netanyahu weighed an attack on Iran in the tense days before the vote. Eisenkot's son and two nephews were killed in Gaza, which his backers say gives him a deep feeling for the country's pain.

This was Israel's first national election since Hamas's Oct. 7, 2023, attack, and it was widely treated as a referendum on Netanyahu's nearly unbroken 17-year rule. The wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, and settler violence in the West Bank, have stirred global outrage and strained ties with Israel's closest allies. Netanyahu faces an international arrest warrant over alleged crimes against humanity in Gaza, which he denies. In Tel Aviv, families of people killed on Oct. 7 and of former hostages held a moment of silence during the voting. "Remember all those whose voices are no more," said Yona Adam, whose daughter Mapal was killed.

Supporters see Netanyahu as a steady statesman who guided the country through a war of redemption. Detractors, pointing to his ongoing corruption trial, say he prolonged the Gaza war and hostage crisis for political reasons and is undermining the judiciary. Voter Angela Bengur said in Jerusalem that the government is "driving the country into the ground." In Jaffa, Nisso Shitrit said the vote was about who serves and who evades service. The parties likely to back Eisenkot have pledged to conscript ultra-Orthodox men, strengthen judicial independence and repair Israel's international standing. Weeks of coalition bargaining now begin, with final results still to come.