Israeli Exit Polls Show Deadlock as Netanyahu and Eisenkot Lack a Clear Path to Power

Long lines formed outside polling stations across Israel on Tuesday, and by the time the polls closed the exit surveys were pointing to an election that had not settled the question it was meant to answer. Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his challenger, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, appeared to have a clear route to a governing majority. Turnout was a record, in the first national vote since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, and the wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran that followed.

The major networks put the Eisenkot-led bloc at 52 to 53 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, and the Netanyahu-led bloc at around 50. The remaining 17 to 18 seats were allocated to unaligned Arab parties. A majority takes 61, and no single party has ever won that many outright, so coalitions are the norm. Not every outlet agreed with the mainstream picture: Channel 14, which is pro-Netanyahu, projected a far stronger result for him, saying his parties would collectively reach 60 seats.

Final results could take days, and the fragmented system leaves smaller parties in a position to act as kingmakers. The stalemate may also help the prime minister. If talks drag on, or if the country is sent back to the polls, Netanyahu can stay in office in a caretaker capacity while parties try to assemble a coalition.

Opposition leader Yair Lapid read the numbers differently. He said in a statement that the Netanyahu bloc had suffered a crushing defeat, a total collapse in which the public had told them to go home. At the headquarters of the Joint List, an alliance of several Arab parties, whistles and applause broke out as the results were announced. The night was historic for participation by Palestinian citizens of Israel.

Netanyahu is 77 and has been prime minister for nearly 19 of the past 30 years. He has survived repeated political crises, and his opponents have pried the premiership from him only once since 2009, after four inconclusive elections in two years. Eighteen months later he was back. He entered this race facing long-running corruption charges, which he denies, and criticism over the intelligence failures that allowed Hamas-led militants to kill 1,200 people and take 251 hostages. His right-wing policies have divided Israelis and deepened the country's international isolation, but he has cast himself as the leader with the resolve to face down Israel's enemies. He campaigned on an endorsement from US President Donald Trump, his ally in the war against Iran, who has said they should finish the job.

Eisenkot, 66, emerged as the strongest challenger. A hawkish former military chief, he lost a son and two nephews in the Gaza war. He entered politics only four years ago, joined Netanyahu's war cabinet after the October 7 attack, and quit eight months later, criticizing the prime minister's leadership. He stressed his security credentials while presenting himself as a centrist on domestic matters.

For many of Netanyahu's opponents, the vote turned on accountability for October 7. Opposition groups have promised a national inquiry, which Netanyahu has resisted. Netanyahu had urged his supporters to counter high turnout among the left and Arab Israelis, telling them they all needed to stream to the polls and calling it a fateful moment. Ruth Epstein, an 81-year-old longtime left-wing voter in Ramat Gan near Tel Aviv who backed the opposition Democrats, called it the most important election she had known.

Netanyahu's nationalist politics remain deeply entrenched, and a fractured field of opponents will find it hard to dislodge his coalition of right-wing, far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties. What to watch now is the official count, which will show whether the mainstream exit polls or Channel 14's projection was closer, and then which smaller parties the two blocs court.