Israeli exit polls point to deadlock as Netanyahu and Eisenkot blocs tie with neither reaching a majority

At Gadi Eisenkot's election-night headquarters in Tel Aviv, supporters cheered and chanted "Bibi, go home!" as the first exit polls came in. Within hours the picture had changed. By the early hours of Wednesday, Israel's general election looked deadlocked, with neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor the former military chief able to claim a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.

The first projections, from public broadcaster Kan, Channel 12 and Channel 13, put Eisenkot's bloc ahead with 52 to 53 seats, against 50 for Netanyahu's governing coalition. Later updates pulled the sides level. Kan and Channel 13 showed the two blocs tied at 51 seats each. Channel 12 gave Netanyahu's bloc 52 seats and Eisenkot's 49. Another poll had given Netanyahu a lead of three seats. Eisenkot's bloc consists of his Yashar party and three other Jewish opposition parties, which together form what is called the Change Bloc. Netanyahu's side is his Likud party plus its far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies. Likud was projected to be the largest single party in parliament.

Turnout was the highest in decades. The Central Elections Committee said it reached 77.7% when polls closed at 22:00 local time, the highest at that hour since 1999. Likud and several other right-wing parties had asked for voting hours to be extended, which many opponents read as a sign of desperation. The committee refused, saying "the current circumstances do not justify an extension" and that the turnout reflected strong public engagement in the democratic process. Netanyahu had urged supporters to vote, warning in filmed remarks that otherwise "we'll wake up tomorrow with a left-wing government, Arab parties, extreme Islam, and we'll lose the country."

The outcome may turn on the two Arab parties, the United Arab List and the Joint List. They were projected to win a record 18 or 19 seats after what was reported as strong turnout among Arab Israelis, who make up about a fifth of the population. That makes them potential kingmakers, though only one party has openly backed working with them in government. United Arab List leader Mansour Abbas said he hoped the Change Bloc and his party could together reach 61 seats. His party sat in the coalition led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid after the 2021 elections, which lasted a year before collapsing. Joint List chairman Yousef Jabareen warned that the grouping "cannot be ignored under any political scenario."

The two camps read the night very differently. Eisenkot said his side had "made history" and promised to see that the people's decision became a Zionist government, "stable and good for all of Israel's citizens." Lapid, his ally in the Beyachad party and a former prime minister, spoke of a "crushing defeat" for Netanyahu's bloc. At Likud headquarters in Jerusalem, there was no concession. A supporter named Itzik told the BBC, "It's not over until it's over, but I'm sweating." Foreign Minister Gideon Saar called the left's celebrations premature. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir asked supporters of his far-right Jewish Power party to pray for a "full-on right-wing government." Later, Netanyahu told Likud headquarters that his bloc had a "great majority" and called for "a strong, right-wing national government."

The vote was the first since the Hamas-led attacks of 7 October 2023 and the wars that followed in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. Many Israelis saw it as among the most consequential in the country's history, since it could decide whether Israel stays on its current hard-line, religious-nationalist course. Campaign issues included accountability for the security failures of 7 October, the conduct of the wars, sharing the burden of military service, judicial reforms and Israel's international standing. Voters outside a Tel Aviv polling station gave sharply different reasons. Zivit Abramson, 88, backed Eisenkot because she said Netanyahu was "ruining this country." Claire Tugendhaft chose Netanyahu as "the best man in the country to lead the country towards the outside world."

Nothing is settled yet. Official results begin to appear overnight, but about 600,000 absentee ballots, mostly cast by military personnel and roughly 10% of all votes, will not be fully counted until Thursday. After final results and consultations with all factions, the president will invite the leader he thinks most likely to succeed to form a coalition, a process that could take weeks. If it fails, Israel would face another election.