Israel Votes in Pivotal Election as Netanyahu and Eisenkot Face Tight Race and Possible Deadlock

By the time polls opened, an estimated 70,000 Israelis had reportedly flown home from abroad just to vote, and half a million more were casting a ballot for the first time. Many in the country regard this as one of the most pivotal elections in its history, and the numbers help explain why.

The contest is between the incumbent, Benjamin Netanyahu, and Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief. Polling published on Friday had them close to level. Neither man's bloc, though, is projected to reach the 61 seats needed for a majority in the Knesset. Israel's proportional system has always produced coalition governments, and this time the bargaining that follows could take weeks or months.

Eisenkot leads the Yashar Party, formed only last year, and is the main figure in what is called the change bloc. Its members disagree on a lot but share the aim of removing Netanyahu. They include two former right-wingers with hardline security views, ex-prime minister Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, along with Yair Golan, a left-leaning former general. Netanyahu, who first became prime minister in 1996, needs to rebuild his current coalition of far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties, the most right-wing government in Israel's history.

About a fifth of Israelis are Arab, and many describe themselves as Palestinian citizens of Israel. Two Arab party blocs are running, and on paper they could decide who governs. But all but one of the leading Jewish parties have ruled out working with them. Some have speculated that Arab parties might informally prop up a minority government led by Eisenkot, yet Lieberman, a key prospective partner, has said he will not take part in such an arrangement.

Security has shaped the campaign. The opposition has pressed Netanyahu over the failure that allowed the 7 October Hamas-led attacks, in which nearly 1,200 people were killed and 251 taken to Gaza as hostages. It wants an independent commission of inquiry, which Netanyahu has resisted for years, arguing it would be biased against him. Opponents also cite threats to democracy: his ongoing corruption trial, which he denies, and his continued push for judicial reforms that drew mass protests before 7 October. A further flashpoint is conscription. His government has not enforced a Supreme Court ruling that ultra-Orthodox men in full-time religious study must be drafted, while thousands of others have been called up for recent wars.

Netanyahu has again cast himself as "Mr Security", pointing to strategic wins in Israel's regional wars and his close tie to US President Donald Trump. In the final days, Israel's Channel 12 reported that he had pushed for military action that might provoke a confrontation with Iran before the vote, and that his military chief Eyal Zamir opposed it. CNN then reported that he had tried to get Trump to approve new strikes on Iran and been refused. Netanyahu denied both reports. He also posted an AI-generated image of a nuclear bomb hitting Tel Aviv, saying only he could protect Israel if Iran obtained nuclear weapons. Eisenkot called him "hysterical".

On Gaza, Eisenkot's position is broadly similar to Netanyahu's. He has pledged to end Hamas rule within 18 months, through a US-led peace plan or by force if necessary. Israel has struck the territory almost daily since last year's ceasefire, saying it targets Hamas operatives. Eisenkot largely backs West Bank settlements, which are illegal under international law, but wants to act against extremist settlers, whose attacks are at a record high according to UN figures. He has spoken of "autonomy or a state-minus" for Palestinians under ultimate Israeli security control. The two-state solution has all but vanished from mainstream Israeli politics.

Exit polls will be published by Israeli broadcasters at 22:00 local time (20:00 GMT) on Tuesday, though they can be well off the final result. Likud will gather in Jerusalem and Yashar in Tel Aviv. Votes from hundreds of thousands of soldiers and reservists will mostly not be counted until Wednesday, a delay that may help right-wing parties, which are thought to be strong with that group.

The race is often framed as Eisenkot against Netanyahu, but another leader could take the top job by withholding their party's support from a coalition unless given it. The outcome many dread is deadlock: no bloc reaching a majority and no minority government possible. That would mean fresh elections, with Netanyahu staying on as interim prime minister. Israel held five elections between 2019 and 2022 as parties repeatedly failed to cooperate.