Israel votes in first national election since October 7, with Netanyahu's future at stake

The ultimate political survivor, or the end of a long career
Netanyahu, 77, faces an election widely seen as a referendum on his nearly two decades of dominance.
Mark

Why is this election being described as a referendum on one man?

Mimi

Because Netanyahu has been the country's dominant politician for almost two decades, and this is the first national vote since October 7. Many people are treating it as a verdict on him.

Mark

What does he stand to lose?

Mimi

At 77, a poor result could end his career on a bitter note. A win would reinforce his reputation as the ultimate political survivor.

Luke

Polls suggest a clear defeat for him. How much weight can that carry?

Mimi

Some, but not all. Israel's fragmented system often produces surprises.

Luke

And the source gives no polling numbers, so we can't say how large the lead is or who holds it.

Mark

So even after polls close, we may not know who governs?

Mimi

Right. Coalition negotiations can mean the final outcome takes days or weeks.

Luke

Then a strong early result is not the same as a government. That part is still unknown.

Mark

What should readers watch for?

Mimi

Shifting results as the count comes in, and then the coalition talks that follow.

  • Polling stations opened at 7am Tuesday in Israel, and the country's first national vote since October 7 is now underway.
  • Voters are treating the election as a referendum on Netanyahu, whose career could end in bitter defeat or be sealed by one more survival.
  • Polls point to a clear defeat for him, but a fragmented system means early numbers may not settle the final picture.
  • Expect shifting results through Wednesday, followed by coalition negotiations that could stretch the outcome across days or weeks.

On a Tuesday morning in Israel, citizens began casting ballots in the first national election since the attacks of October 7 reshaped their nation and unsettled the wider Middle East. For many, the choice is less about parties than about a man: Benjamin Netanyahu, seventy-seven years old and the dominant figure in Israeli public life for nearly two decades, whose long career now hangs on the verdict of the voters. Polls suggest that verdict will go against him, yet Israel's fragmented politics has a way of humbling early certainties, and the true shape of the outcome may only emerge slowly, through the patient and often tangled work of forming a government.

Polling stations in Israel opened at 7am on Tuesday, local time, which was 4pm in eastern Australia, and will remain open until 10pm. It is the country's first national election since the October 7 attacks, which shook Israel and set the wider Middle East into turmoil.

For many voters, the ballot is a referendum on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, 77, who has been the most dominant politician in the country for nearly two decades. The result will determine whether his long career continues or comes to an end. A poor showing could close it on a bitter note and open a new era in Israeli politics; a win would confirm his reputation as a political survivor.

Opinion polls point to a clear defeat for him. Polls are only part of the picture, however. Israel's fragmented system often produces surprises, and the final outcome may not be clear for some time. Coalition negotiations could stretch the process over days or even weeks. SBS News is running a live blog from 5.30am AEDT with results, analysis and reaction as they arrive.

Polling stations in Israel opened at 7am on Tuesday, local time, which was 4pm in eastern Australia. They will stay open until 10pm, or 7am Wednesday on the Australian east coast. It is the country's first national election since the attacks of October 7, which shook Israel and plunged the wider Middle East into turmoil.

For many people, the vote is a referendum on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He is 77 and has been the country's most dominant politician for nearly two decades. The election will decide whether his long career continues or ends.

The stakes for him are plain. A poor showing could close that career on a bitter note and open the door to a new era in Israeli politics. A win would cement his image as the ultimate political survivor.

Opinion polls ahead of the vote point to a clear defeat for Netanyahu. The source coverage does not name the parties or candidates he faces, and it gives no polling figures, so the size of the projected gap is not stated here.

Polls are only part of the picture. Israel's political system is fragmented, and it often produces surprises. Even once the ballots are counted, the final outcome may not be clear straight away. Coalition negotiations can stretch the process out for days or even weeks.

SBS News is running a live blog from 5.30am AEDT, with developments, key results, expert analysis and reaction as they arrive.

The first signals will come as results are reported after polls close. The more decisive question is who can assemble a governing coalition, and that may take some time to settle.

Opinion polls suggest a clear defeat for Netanyahu, but Israel's fragmented system often produces surprises.
— SBS News live coverage (paraphrased)
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