On the eve of a vote that many see as a hinge in Israel's history, a nation is asked whether the long tenure of Benjamin Netanyahu should continue, in the first national ballot since the October 7 attack and the war that followed. The rightward turn now at the center of the choice did not begin with his government, though many observers agree it quickened under it, as the courts were challenged and settlements and violence spread while the war remained largely outside the debate. Whatever the outcome, the deeper question of how Israelis and Palestinians will live together seems likely to remai
Israel Votes as Netanyahu Fights for Survival Amid a Decisive Rightward Shift
More than 74,000 people have been killed in Gaza, with deadly attacks continuing almost daily despite a yearlong ceasefire, and violence has intensified in the occupied West Bank.
Little change in policy is expected, whoever wins
Mark
Why is this election being called so pivotal if the opposition is also right-wing?
Mimi
Because the stakes are as much about how Israel is governed as about who governs. Analysts point to the judicial overhaul, the court rulings being flouted, and the role of Ben-Gvir and Smotrich.
Mark
So a new prime minister changes the style more than the substance?
Mimi
That's Ahron Bregman's reading. He expects a calmer atmosphere and a return to process, but warns against expecting a different policy direction.
Luke
Worth noting that's one analyst's forecast. The piece doesn't include polling numbers or say who is ahead.
Mark
What about Gaza? Is it on the ballot?
Mimi
Daniel Levy says no, because no side argues the war was wrong. The article says the campaign centered on competence, timing and accountability for October 7.
Luke
Be careful, though. Terms like genocide and Jewish supremacy are the outlet's framing or the quoted analysts' views. The one hard figure, more than 74,000 killed, has no source or methodology given here.
Mark
And Arab-led parties?
Mimi
None of the mainstream candidates has talked of including them, and they make up a fifth of the population.
Luke
What we can't tell from this piece is how the vote will actually turn out, or whether a coalition without those parties is even arithmetically possible.
Il Polso
- Israelis head to the polls in a tightly contested election that many call one of the most consequential in the nation's history.
- Netanyahu, facing corruption charges and an international arrest warrant, is seeking to extend his tenure at the head of the most right-wing government Israel has known.
- Violence in the occupied West Bank has intensified, while deadly strikes in Gaza continue almost daily despite a ceasefire now a year old.
- Campaign fights center on accountability for pre-October 7 security failures, ultra-Orthodox military service, and keeping Arab-led parties out of power, leaving the war and occupation largely unaddressed.
- Analysts expect the outcome to bring a shift in atmosphere but little change in foreign and security policy, and Arab-led parties remain shut out of coalition talks.
On the eve of a vote that many see as a hinge in Israel's history, a nation is asked whether the long tenure of Benjamin Netanyahu should continue, in the first national ballot since the October 7 attack and the war that followed. The rightward turn now at the center of the choice did not begin with his government, though many observers agree it quickened under it, as the courts were challenged and settlements and violence spread while the war remained largely outside the debate. Whatever the outcome, the deeper question of how Israelis and Palestinians will live together seems likely to remain unanswered, carried forward by voters and leaders alike.
Israelis go to the polls on Tuesday in an election being called one of the most consequential in the country's history. It is the first national vote since the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023, and the war in Gaza that followed, a conflict that has also drawn in strikes on Iran, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Qatar.
Benjamin Netanyahu, the longest-serving prime minister in Israel's history, is asking voters to extend his rule. His outgoing government, which joined far-right ultranationalists with ultra-Orthodox parties, is the most right-wing in the country's history. He faces an International Criminal Court warrant over Gaza and a long-running corruption trial on bribery, fraud and breach of trust charges, all of which he denies. His opponents, a self-described Zionist bloc, have themselves adopted a hard-line approach, and Gadi Eisenkot is named as a possible successor.
Analysts say the drift to the right began decades ago, as the peace process collapsed and the centre and left weakened, with milestones such as the 2018 Nation-State Law and steady settlement growth. Most agree it accelerated under the current government, through attempts to curb the Supreme Court and the flouting of its rulings on ultra-Orthodox conscription. Ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, whose support keeps the coalition together, have backed the judicial overhaul and encouraged violence in the West Bank.
What a change would bring remains uncertain. Ahron Bregman expects a calmer atmosphere and a return to respect for the rule of law, but not a new policy direction. Yossi Mekelberg warns the choice is between a functioning democracy and one in name only, and between continued occupation and annexation.
Meanwhile, more than 74,000 people have been killed in Gaza, and the policy behind those deaths is largely absent from the ballot. Palestinian citizens, roughly a fifth of the population, are represented by Arab-led parties that no mainstream candidate has pledged to bring into government. Whatever the result, analysts expect little movement on security or on that exclusion.
Israelis go to the polls on Tuesday in a closely contested election that is being called one of the most consequential in the country's history. It is the first national vote since the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023, and the war in Gaza that followed, which Al Jazeera describes as genocidal. The wider conflict has also included Israeli attacks on Iran, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Qatar.
Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, is asking voters to extend his tenure. His outgoing government is the most right-wing in the country's history, a coalition that joined far-right ultranationalists with ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties. He enters the vote wanted by the International Criminal Court on charges of war crimes in Gaza, and he is still in the middle of a long-running corruption trial. He faces charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust, all of which he denies.
His opponent is a self-described Zionist opposition bloc that, in the article's account, has itself embraced a right-wing approach to Israel's challenges. The campaign turned on accountability for the alleged security failures that preceded October 7, disputes over military service for the ultra-Orthodox, and efforts to keep Arab-led parties out of power. Gadi Eisenkot is named as a possible new prime minister if Netanyahu loses.
Analysts say the rightward drift did not start with this government. The collapse of the peace process and repeated security crises over several decades wore down the political centre and left. One landmark along the way was the 2018 Nation-State Law, which formally enshrined Jewish supremacy, alongside the continued expansion of illegal settlements in occupied Palestinian territory. Most analysts agree, though, that the pace quickened under the latest Netanyahu government, formed in 2022. They point to attempts to strip the Supreme Court of its power to review government actions, and to the flouting of its rulings on conscripting the ultra-Orthodox, whose political backing helped hold the coalition together.
Two ministers feature heavily in that account: National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. In return for their seats, both backed the judicial overhaul Netanyahu launched in early 2023, which continues today. Both have also given encouragement and cover to the surge of violence in the West Bank, and deflected efforts to hold the coalition accountable for the alleged failures before October 7.
What a change of government would bring is a matter of debate. Ahron Bregman, a senior teaching fellow at King's College London, expects the first difference to be in atmosphere. Netanyahu, he said, is adored by many and hated deeply by many, and a successor would likely calm things. Bregman also expects respect for process and the rule of law to return. But he cautioned against expecting a different direction in policy, since Israel turned sharply right after October 7 and any new government will mirror that. Yossi Mekelberg of Chatham House framed the choice more starkly: a functioning democracy or one in name only, and continued occupation of the West Bank or annexation with the "voluntary migration" of its population that some figures in government have floated.
What is absent from the ballot, observers say, is the policy that has accompanied the killing of more than 74,000 people in Gaza, rising violence in the West Bank, and several wars, including one on Iran that has choked key energy routes and unsettled global markets. Deadly attacks in Gaza continue almost daily despite a ceasefire now a year old. None of the mainstream candidates has spoken of bringing Arab-led parties such as Ra'am or the Joint List into a coalition. Palestinian citizens, one-fifth of the population, are represented by those parties. Their names mostly surface when rivals accuse one another of flirting with them.
Sociologist Yehouda Shenhav-Shahrabani argues the dividing line is between Jews and Palestinians, not democratic and anti-democratic forces, and that ultra-Orthodox parties would be welcome in either coalition. Daniel Levy, a former Israeli government adviser, said the election cannot be a referendum on Gaza because no side argues the war was wrong. In his view, the real difference among Zionist parties is whether settler militias share a role in oppressing Palestinians. Whatever the result, analysts expect little movement on security policy or on the exclusion of Arab-led parties.
Citazioni salienti
Israel, particularly after 7 October, turned sharply to the right, and any new government will reflect and mirror this reality.— Ahron Bregman, King's College London
The decision on whether to retain a Netanyahu-led government is ultimately a decision on whether to live in a functioning democracy or a democracy in name only.— Yossi Mekelberg, Chatham House (paraphrased)
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