We cannot trust the Americans at all
Along the fault lines of the Middle East, where trust is the scarcest resource of all, Lebanon and Israel have agreed to extend their ceasefire by forty-five days — buying time, if not yet peace. The agreement, forged in Washington, opens a narrow corridor toward formal military and political negotiations, even as daily strikes continue to claim lives on both sides of the truce. Iran watches from a distance, declaring victory while expressing deep suspicion of American intentions, and the world's great powers — the United States and China among them — maneuver for position around a conflict whose resolution remains elusive. Whether this pause becomes a turning point or merely a postponement is the question that history has not yet answered.
- A ceasefire exists on paper, but Israeli airstrikes and Hezbollah drone attacks have continued daily since April 17, killing dozens and exposing the truce as largely symbolic.
- At least 2,951 people have died since the war began on March 2, and evacuation orders for five southern Lebanese villages issued Friday signal that the violence is far from over.
- Lebanon and Israel have agreed to meet at the Pentagon on May 29 and at the State Department on June 2 and 3, offering the first structured diplomatic framework since the conflict began.
- Iran's foreign minister declared his country cannot trust the United States, called the ceasefire 'shaky,' and claimed Iran as the victor — deepening the mistrust that diplomats must somehow bridge.
- President Trump asserted U.S. control of the Strait of Hormuz and claimed 90% of Iran's naval mines destroyed, but military commanders acknowledge Iran's threats still rattle the global shipping and insurance industries.
- China's offer to help broker a deal — and Xi Jinping's pledge not to supply Iran with military equipment — introduces a new variable into negotiations that Trump insists he can manage alone.
In Washington this week, Lebanese and Israeli delegations concluded two days of talks and agreed to extend their ceasefire by forty-five days. The agreement offers what officials are calling a path toward lasting stability, with military delegations set to meet at the Pentagon on May 29 and political negotiations scheduled at the State Department on June 2 and 3. Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam described the outcome as a "critical breathing space" and pledged to seek broader Arab and international support. The United Nations humanitarian coordinator welcomed the talks but noted that airstrikes and demolitions continue daily, exacting what he called an unacceptable toll on civilians.
The optimism in Washington, however, finds little echo in Tehran. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, speaking at a BRICS summit in New Delhi, said his country "cannot trust the Americans at all" and characterized the ceasefire as shaky. He accused the United States of shifting its messaging constantly — sometimes multiple times in a single day — and identified that instability as the central obstacle to any diplomatic progress. At the same time, Araghchi claimed Iran had emerged victorious from the conflict and renewed accusations that the UAE had aided American and Israeli forces, charges the UAE flatly rejected.
President Trump, speaking from Beijing after meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, offered a starkly different assessment. He declared that the United States effectively controls the Strait of Hormuz and claimed American forces had wiped out Iran's armed forces. Trump said he would be comfortable with a twenty-year suspension of Iran's nuclear program if Tehran made a genuine commitment. Xi, for his part, pledged not to supply Iran with military equipment and expressed a desire to help reopen the strait — a matter of acute economic importance to China, which imports roughly ninety percent of Iran's oil exports.
On the military front, Admiral Brad Cooper told the Senate Armed Services Committee that Operation Epic Fury had destroyed more than ninety percent of Iran's naval mine inventory. Yet he acknowledged that Iran retains some capacity to threaten shipping, and that its rhetoric alone is enough to keep the merchant and insurance industries on edge. Meanwhile, the human cost continues to climb — at least 2,951 people killed since March 2, with dozens more dying during the ceasefire period itself. Whether the forty-five-day extension creates genuine space for diplomacy or simply delays the next escalation remains the defining question of a conflict that shows no clear path to resolution.
In Washington this week, Lebanese and Israeli delegations sat across from each other for two days and emerged with an agreement to extend their ceasefire by forty-five days. The talks, which concluded Friday, represent the latest attempt to stabilize a conflict that has killed at least 2,951 people since March 2, when the war between Israel and Hezbollah began. Yet the ceasefire itself remains fragile. Despite the truce that began April 17, both sides have continued daily attacks—Israeli airstrikes have struck Beirut and southern Lebanese villages, while Hezbollah has launched drone strikes against Israeli soldiers in the south. On May 7 alone, an Israeli strike killed an alleged Hezbollah leader and others in the capital. On Tuesday, at least a dozen people died in Lebanese strikes. The ceasefire, in other words, has been a ceasefire in name only.
The new forty-five-day extension buys time for a more formal diplomatic process. Military delegations from Lebanon and Israel will meet at the Pentagon on May 29 to discuss security arrangements. The State Department will reconvene political negotiations on June 2 and 3. Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam called the outcome a "critical breathing space" for his citizens and said he would seek Arab and international support to strengthen Lebanon's position in talks with Israel. The Lebanese delegation welcomed the extension as a path toward "lasting stability." The United Nations humanitarian coordinator for Lebanon called the talks a "critical opportunity" to end the war, though he noted that airstrikes and demolitions continue daily with an "unacceptable toll on civilians and civilian infrastructure."
But the diplomatic optimism in Washington stands in sharp contrast to the skepticism emanating from Tehran. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Friday that his country "cannot trust the Americans at all" and described the ceasefire as "shaky." Speaking at a BRICS summit in New Delhi, Araghchi said Iran is "trying to maintain" the truce "to give diplomacy a chance," but he emphasized that lack of trust in the United States remains "the main obstacle to any diplomatic effort." He complained that American messaging shifts constantly—sometimes multiple times in a single day—deepening mistrust. At the same time, Araghchi claimed that Iran had emerged as the victor in the conflict and must now be recognized as a power capable of confronting the world's greatest powers. He also renewed accusations that the United Arab Emirates had sided with the United States and Israel by providing airspace, territory, and facilities to American forces. The UAE rejected these claims as attempts to justify Iranian terrorist attacks.
President Trump, speaking from Beijing after a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, struck a very different tone. He declared that the United States controls the Strait of Hormuz, the critical oil chokepoint that has been largely closed to shipping since the war began. "We wiped out their armed forces, essentially," Trump said, adding that the U.S. may need to do "a little cleanup work." He said the blockade is so effective that it justified the month-long ceasefire. Trump also said he felt comfortable with a twenty-year suspension of Iran's nuclear program, provided there is a "real" commitment from Tehran. When asked about Chinese assistance in resolving the Iran conflict, Trump said he did not need help, noting that when someone helps you, "they always want something on the other side."
Yet Trump also acknowledged that Xi Jinping had offered to assist. Xi told Trump that China would not provide military equipment to Iran—a statement Trump called "a big statement." Xi also expressed a desire to see the Strait of Hormuz reopened and said he would like to help broker a deal. China imports roughly ninety percent of Iran's oil exports and depends heavily on Gulf oil and gas, making the strait's closure economically painful. Trump said he is "not going to be much more patient" on reaching a deal with Iran and that Tehran "should make a deal."
Admiral Brad Cooper of U.S. Central Command told the Senate Armed Services Committee that the bombing campaign against Iran, called Operation Epic Fury, achieved its objectives to "significantly degrade" Iran's military capabilities. U.S. forces destroyed more than ninety percent of Iran's inventory of eight thousand naval mines, he said. Yet Cooper acknowledged that Iran still maintains some capability to threaten shipping. "The Iranian ability to stop commerce has been dramatically degraded through the straits, but their voice is very loud, and those threats are clearly heard by the merchant industry and the insurance industry," he said.
Meanwhile, the human toll continues to mount. Israel's military called on residents of five villages in southern Lebanon to evacuate Friday, citing Hezbollah's alleged violations of the ceasefire. The military said it would conduct attacks against the group and urged civilians to stay at least one thousand meters away from their homes. The ceasefire, set to expire Sunday before the new extension takes effect, has not stopped the cycle of violence. Iran's army commander said troops would defend the country "until the last drop of blood," signaling no willingness to back down. The question now is whether the forty-five-day extension will create genuine space for diplomacy or simply delay the next escalation.
Notable Quotes
We cannot trust the Americans at all. Everything must be precise and clearly defined before any agreement can be concluded.— Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi
We wiped out their armed forces, essentially. We control the Strait of Hormuz.— President Trump
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does Iran keep saying it won if the U.S. claims to have destroyed ninety percent of its naval mines?
Because victory and defeat in this kind of conflict aren't measured the same way. Iran's foreign minister is claiming they prevented their enemies from achieving their objectives—that they survived, that they're still standing. The U.S. is measuring success in hardware destroyed. Both can be true in their own frame.
But the ceasefire is still happening. Doesn't that suggest someone is winning?
The ceasefire is happening because both sides are exhausted and because the U.S. is pushing hard for it. But notice that neither side has actually stopped fighting. They're just doing it at a lower temperature. That's not a win—that's a pause.
What's the real obstacle to a permanent deal?
Trust. Iran's foreign minister said it plainly: they cannot trust the Americans. He said the U.S. sends different messages every day. When you're negotiating something as consequential as a nuclear program, you need certainty. You need to know the other side will keep its word. That's missing here.
Is China actually going to help, or is Trump just trying to look good?
Xi offered. Whether he follows through depends on what happens to Iran's oil exports and whether the U.S. actually reopens the strait. China needs that oil. But Trump also said he doesn't need help, which is a way of saying he doesn't want to owe anyone anything. That's the real tension.
So what happens in forty-five days?
Either they've made real progress on a political settlement, or we're back where we started. The Lebanese are hoping for lasting stability. Iran is hoping diplomacy works. The U.S. is betting its military advantage holds. Those three hopes don't necessarily align.