On a Sunday in late October, Israel's military began a 48-hour drill across its northern and central regions, rehearsing the nightmare of enemies crossing the border unseen, a memory still raw from the attacks of October 7, 2023. It unfolds in the shadow of an Iranian missile display, an Israeli long-range flight toward Iran's frontier, and an election set for the 27th, a convergence in which every movement of troops can be read in more than one way. Analysts see in it both a warning to proxies on Israel's borders and a signal to Tehran, though the deeper danger is the old one that history has
Israel Launches Major Military Drill as Analyst Warns of 1973-Style Miscalculation With Iran
Both sides are signaling: we are ready, but we don't want war right now.
Mark
Why does a domestic drill make news at all?
Mimi
Because of the scale and the timing. It's the largest in years, it involves four divisions plus the air force, and it lands right before the Oct. 27 election.
Mark
Who is it actually aimed at?
Mimi
Eilam says mostly non-state actors in Syria, Lebanon and Jordan who might infiltrate or raid, with or without Iranian support. He also calls it a message to Iran not to provoke Israel on election day.
Luke
That's one analyst's interpretation. The IDF's own stated goals are readiness, community defense and use of air power. The election-day message is Eilam's reading, not an official claim.
Mark
And the Iranian missile launches?
Mimi
Reportedly about 30 ballistic missiles of two classes, which prompted Israel to raise its alert level.
Luke
Note that's "according to reports." The source doesn't confirm the number independently.
Mark
Why bring up 1973?
Mimi
Egypt and Syria used exercises as cover, and Israeli intelligence read the buildup as routine. Eilam's worry is that each side could misread the other's drill as the real thing.
Luke
He's describing a risk, not saying it's happening. Nothing here shows either side is disguising an attack. And whether Israel strikes Iran is, in his words, uncertain and dependent on U.S. authorization.
Il Polso
- Israel's largest domestic military drill in years has put multiple divisions and air assets on the move across the north and center of the country.
- Troops are rehearsing surprise attacks and infiltrations by air and land, a scenario designed around the lessons of October 7.
- Tehran's launch of roughly 30 ballistic missiles and Israel's distant flight to Iran's border have left both sides watching each other with suspicion.
- Analysts warn that troop movements could be misread as attack preparations, echoing the 1973 surprise that began with exercises, and the drill runs through Monday as voters head to the polls on October 27.
On a Sunday in late October, Israel's military began a 48-hour drill across its northern and central regions, rehearsing the nightmare of enemies crossing the border unseen, a memory still raw from the attacks of October 7, 2023. It unfolds in the shadow of an Iranian missile display, an Israeli long-range flight toward Iran's frontier, and an election set for the 27th, a convergence in which every movement of troops can be read in more than one way. Analysts see in it both a warning to proxies on Israel's borders and a signal to Tehran, though the deeper danger is the old one that history has taught before: that exercises can hide preparations, and that a nation's rehearsal may be mistaken for its intent.
On Sunday the Israeli military began a 48-hour exercise across northern and central Israel, built around a single fear: enemies slipping across the border by surprise. Several divisions and the Israeli Air Force are rehearsing infiltrations and ground raids, drawing on the lessons of the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023. The timing is deliberate, falling just before Israel's elections on October 27.
Analyst Ehud Eilam reads the drill as aimed mostly at non-state actors in Syria, Lebanon and Jordan, with or without Iranian backing, and as a message to Tehran not to provoke Israel on election day. It follows an Iranian launch of roughly 30 ballistic missiles that renewed alarms over shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier, Israeli jets and refueling tankers had flew 800 miles to Iran's border in a non-kinetic show of force, with Washington informed in advance.
Eilam's central warning is that such exercises risk miscalculation, because troop movements can look like attack preparations. He recalls 1973, when Egypt and Syria used drills to hide buildups before a coordinated surprise attack on Yom Kippur. Israel and Iran now watch each other closely, each fearing the other might strike first. For the moment, both are signaling readiness and a wish to be left alone, without yet choosing war. The drill ends Monday, and the vote follows.
On Sunday the Israeli military began what it describes as a 48-hour exercise across northern and central Israel, built around one scenario: enemies getting across the border by surprise. Troops are rehearsing infiltrations and ground raids, and the drill pulls in several divisions along with the Israeli Air Force.
The IDF named the units involved: the Northern Command's 210th Division, the West Bank Division, and the Central Command's 98th and 96th divisions. On Friday it said the forces would work through a range of scenarios, including a surprise attack and an infiltration into Israeli territory by air and land, drawing on lessons from the Hamas-led attacks of Oct. 7, 2023. The stated aims are to keep forces alert and ready, strengthen the defense of communities, and make full use of aerial capabilities in the area.
The timing is deliberate. The drill falls just ahead of Israel's elections on Oct. 27. Dr. Ehud Eilam, an Israeli national security analyst and former Defense Ministry researcher, told Fox News Digital it is the largest exercise in recent years and is mostly about non-state actors, with or without Iranian backing. In his reading, it targets those in Syria, Lebanon and Jordan who might try to infiltrate or launch ground raids, whether on Iran's orders or on local initiative. He also sees a message to Iran and others: do not try to provoke Israel on election day.
The drill follows a display by Tehran a few days earlier. According to reports, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired roughly 30 ballistic missiles of two distinct classes. The launches renewed alerts about commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and the Israeli military raised its alert level while keeping maximum readiness for a targeted strike on Iran. Eilam judged Iran's exercise the more intimidating of the two from Israel's perspective, since it involved missile launches and preparation for war with Israel. Israel's drill, he said, is aimed at Iran's proxies and allies at its borders.
On Wednesday, during a visit to Central Command, Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir said that given the numerous warnings on all fronts and the sensitivity of the period, the potential for escalation had increased. He said troop deployments had been reinforced in every sector, including moving the 98th Division into the area to strengthen security and stability.
There was also an Oct. 19 mission, in which Israeli fighter jets and aerial refueling tankers flew 800 miles across Syrian and Iraqi airspace to Iran's border. Washington was told in advance and treated it as a non-kinetic show of force, coming after the postponement of a broader strike package earlier in the month.
Eilam's central warning is that exercises like these carry a risk of miscalculation, especially when troop movements can be mistaken for preparations to attack. He recalled that during the Cold War, a major drill by the Soviet Union or NATO put so many troops in the field that they could have attacked had they chosen to. His Israeli example is 1973: Egypt and Syria used military exercises to cover buildups along Israel's borders, Israeli intelligence largely dismissed the movements as routine, and the two countries won strategic surprise with a coordinated two-front attack on Yom Kippur.
In his view, Israel and Iran now watch each other closely, and each suspects the other might strike first. He says whether Israel eventually attacks Iran remains uncertain because it depends on U.S. authorization. For now, he said, both sides are signaling that they are ready and want to be left alone, but do not want to start a war right now. The drill runs through Monday, and the election follows on Oct. 27.
Citazioni salienti
Given the numerous warnings across all fronts and the sensitivity of the current period, the potential for escalation has increased.— IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir
Large exercises carry a risk of miscalculation, particularly when troop movements could be mistaken for attack preparations.— Dr. Ehud Eilam, Israeli national security analyst (paraphrased)
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