Under a Jerusalem sky that had not yet decided, two political camps stood level on the scoreboard of an uncertain night: Netanyahu's bloc and Eisenkot's opposition each projected at 51 seats, both short of the 61 that a Knesset majority requires. It is the familiar Israeli pattern of a nation asked again for its verdict and answering with a divided breath, where the question of who governs now passes through the hands of parties long kept at the margins. Exit polls are provisional whispers rather than final words, and the official count, along with the slow work of coalition-making, will deter
Israel election: exit polls show Netanyahu and Eisenkot blocs tied at 51 seats, with Palestinian parties surging
A tie at 51 seats, with neither bloc close to 61
Mark
Both blocs at 51 seats. Why does that matter so much?
Mimi
Because 61 is the threshold, and neither side is close. Whoever forms a government has to find ten more seats somewhere.
Luke
Worth saying that 51 is an exit poll figure. These polls get revised and the final count can swing by several seats.
Mark
And the earlier poll had Eisenkot slightly ahead?
Mimi
Yes. Then the revised numbers showed a tie. That shift alone tells you how soft the picture is.
Mark
The Palestinian parties could reach 18 seats from 10. What does that change?
Mimi
It could make them central to any coalition. Experts say Eisenkot would have to talk to the Joint List and Ra'am if he falls short.
Luke
But that's a projection, and "as many as 18" is the top of the range. And whether talks happen, or succeed, is unknown.
Mark
Netanyahu said a government relying on them must not be formed.
Mimi
He did, and he also suggested the "left and Arabs" were trying to steal the election.
Luke
The Central Elections Committee said it saw no evidence of systematic tampering. That claim has nothing confirmed under it.
Le Pouls
- Exit polls put Netanyahu's bloc and Eisenkot's opposition at a dead heat of 51 seats each, leaving both well short of the 61 needed to govern.
- Palestinian parties are projected to surge from 10 seats to as many as 18, suddenly placing them at the center of any possible government.
- Netanyahu has drawn a firm line, declaring that no government relying on Palestinian parties must be formed, while claiming victory before results are official.
- Eisenkot has called on Netanyahu to accept the public's rejection and warned against using security concerns for political gain, raising fears of escalation over Iran.
- A last-ditch bid to extend polling hours was rejected, and the Central Elections Committee found no evidence of tampering despite claims of stolen votes.
- Coalition talks could stretch for weeks, and exit polls are often revised by several seats, so the final shape of power remains open.
Under a Jerusalem sky that had not yet decided, two political camps stood level on the scoreboard of an uncertain night: Netanyahu's bloc and Eisenkot's opposition each projected at 51 seats, both short of the 61 that a Knesset majority requires. It is the familiar Israeli pattern of a nation asked again for its verdict and answering with a divided breath, where the question of who governs now passes through the hands of parties long kept at the margins. Exit polls are provisional whispers rather than final words, and the official count, along with the slow work of coalition-making, will determine whether this tie becomes a mandate or merely a longer season of negotiation.
Just after 3am in Jerusalem, Benjamin Netanyahu stepped onto a stage at his post-election rally and told supporters that Likud would be the largest party in Israel. He said it on a night when the numbers did not yet favor anyone with confidence.
Exit polls from the major networks showed his governing bloc level with the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot, each at 51 seats. Both fall well short of the 61 needed for a majority. Earlier projections on Tuesday evening had favored Eisenkot slightly, so the picture shifted through the night, and experts caution that such polls are often revised and can move by several seats.
The most striking figure concerned the Palestinian parties, projected to rise from 10 seats to as many as 18. That could make them decisive. If Eisenkot cannot assemble a majority, he would have to turn to the Joint List and Ra'am, a process that could take weeks, or consider a minority government sustained by informal agreements.
Netanyahu answered by insisting on a "strong, right-wing national government" and ruling out one that depends on Palestinian support. In Tel Aviv, Eisenkot told cheering supporters that the public had rejected Netanyahu's leadership, and he urged him to accept that verdict. He also warned against using "Israel's security" for political purposes, a remark that echoed fears of a new strike on Iran during the uncertainty.
The night was further marked by a failed attempt to keep polling stations open past 10pm, which the Central Elections Committee rejected. Netanyahu also suggested the "left and Arabs" were trying to steal the election. The committee said it had seen no evidence of systematic tampering.
For now, the tie is only a projection. The official count will decide whether either side has a realistic path to 61, and whether talks, possibly involving the Palestinian parties, stretch across weeks.
Just after 3am in Jerusalem, Benjamin Netanyahu walked onto a stage at his post-election rally and told supporters that official results would show "Likud is the largest party in Israel." It was a claim made on a night when the numbers did not yet support any side with confidence.
Exit polls published by Israel's major TV networks showed Netanyahu's governing bloc tied with the opposition grouping led by Gadi Eisenkot at 51 seats each. Both are well short of the 61 seats needed for a majority in the Knesset. Earlier exit polls on Tuesday evening had given Eisenkot's side a slight edge in seats, so the picture shifted as the night went on. Israeli exit polls are often revised after publication and are notoriously imprecise, with the final count sometimes moving by several seats.
The most striking projection concerned the Palestinian parties, which are expected to increase their representation sharply, to as many as 18 seats from 10. That could make them pivotal. Experts say that if Eisenkot falls short of a majority, as the exit polls suggest, he would be obliged to sit down with the Joint List and Ra'am to try to assemble a government, a process that could take weeks. Another possibility is a minority government, kept afloat through informal vote-by-vote agreements.
Netanyahu used his speech to draw a line against that outcome. He said the country must "establish a strong, right-wing national government" and that a government relying on the support of Palestinian parties must not be formed.
In Tel Aviv, Eisenkot spoke to cheering supporters and offered a different reading of the night. He said the Israeli public had voted against Netanyahu's service as prime minister, and that a worthy leader would have accepted the people's non-confidence and announced his retirement from politics. He also warned Netanyahu not to "use Israel's security" for political ends. That remark played on fears that the prime minister might use the period of uncertainty to launch a new attack on Iran.
The exit polls came after a last-ditch attempt by Netanyahu and several other parties to keep polling stations open beyond their 10pm deadline. The Central Elections Committee rejected the request. Netanyahu also suggested publicly that the "left and Arabs" were working to steal the election. The committee dismissed the claim, saying it had seen no evidence of systematic tampering.
For now, the tie is a projection rather than a result. The official count will determine whether either bloc has a realistic route to 61, and whether coalition talks, possibly involving the Palestinian parties, stretch over weeks.
Citations marquantes
Likud is the largest party in Israel.— Benjamin Netanyahu, at a Jerusalem rally
A worthy leader would have accepted the people's non-confidence and announced today his retirement from politics.— Gadi Eisenkot, speaking in Tel Aviv
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