Before dawn in Tel Aviv, a country that had gone to the polls in record numbers woke to a verdict it could not yet read. Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc and Gadi Eisenkot's opposition appear to stand at nearly the same mark, each short of the majority that would let either lead a government, and the unexpected rise of the Palestinian parties has placed a question in the room that the mainstream has long preferred to leave unasked. Israel has seen this kind of stalemate before, and the pattern suggests that what has been decided so far is less important than what must now be negotiated, slowly and ag
Israel election: exit polls show Netanyahu and Eisenkot blocs tied at 51 seats, short of 61-seat majority
Neither bloc is close to 61, and the count isn't finished
Mark
Both blocs sit at 51. Why does that number matter so much?
Mimi
Because 61 is the threshold, and nobody is close. Netanyahu's bloc and Eisenkot's bloc each need partners, and the arithmetic points toward the Palestinian parties, which exit polls put at 17 or 18 seats, up from 10.
Mark
Yet both leaders have said they won't work with them.
Mimi
Netanyahu said a government relying on them must not be formed. Eisenkot has said Arab-led parties don't meet Zionist criteria to govern, and his camp kept Ra'am at a distance during the campaign.
Luke
Before we lean on any of this, those 51s are exit polls. The piece itself says they're often revised and can be off by several seats.
Mimi
And they've already shifted. At 50% counted, Israeli media projected 56 for Netanyahu, 49 for Eisenkot, and 15 for the Palestinian parties.
Luke
Which is a projection from partial counts, not a result. And the special ballots, possibly 600,000 to 650,000, won't be announced until Thursday. That's a reported expectation, not a confirmed figure.
Mark
So what are the real routes forward?
Mimi
A coalition with Ra'am or Joint List backing, a minority government on vote-by-vote support, a unity deal, or another election. The Joint List has offered a safety net but not coalition membership.
Luke
The unity idea rests on one analyst's reading of Netanyahu's language as an olive branch. Nobody on the record has said it's being negotiated.
Mark
And Netanyahu's claim about the left and Arabs stealing the election?
Luke
The elections committee said it saw no evidence of systematic tampering. That's the part with something under it.
Der Puls
- Exit polls leave Netanyahu's bloc and Eisenkot's opposition tied near 51 seats each, while 61 remain out of reach for both.
- A lead that briefly favoured Eisenkot evaporated as the count moved, and Netanyahu's bloc pulled ahead at 56 seats in the partial tally.
- Palestinian parties are surging toward 17 or 18 seats, turning them into potential kingmakers that mainstream camps have long kept at arm's length.
- Turnout above 77 percent, a disputed polling-hours fight, and a late wave of special ballots keep the final picture unsettled.
- President Herzog holds a 28-day window to choose a candidate, and the road ends in weeks of bargaining, a minority government, a unity deal, or yet another election.
Before dawn in Tel Aviv, a country that had gone to the polls in record numbers woke to a verdict it could not yet read. Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc and Gadi Eisenkot's opposition appear to stand at nearly the same mark, each short of the majority that would let either lead a government, and the unexpected rise of the Palestinian parties has placed a question in the room that the mainstream has long preferred to leave unasked. Israel has seen this kind of stalemate before, and the pattern suggests that what has been decided so far is less important than what must now be negotiated, slowly and against the clock.
Just after six in the morning in Tel Aviv, Israelis woke to exit polls that settled nothing. The major television forecasts placed Benjamin Netanyahu's governing bloc and the opposition led by former general Gadi Eisenkot at roughly 51 seats each in the 120-seat Knesset, both well short of the 61 needed to govern. Earlier in the night Eisenkot's side had looked slightly ahead, and that lead had now vanished.
As the count went on, the numbers moved again. With half the vote tallied, Netanyahu's bloc was projected at 56 seats, Eisenkot's at 49, and the Palestinian parties at 15. Turnout reached more than 77 percent, the highest in over two decades. The biggest shift was among Palestinian parties, which could take 17 or 18 seats, up from 10. Many Palestinian citizens of Israel, who make up about a fifth of the population, have returned to the ballot after decades of boycott, and the Joint List and Ra'am are seen as potential kingmakers.
Netanyahu spoke briefly after 3am without claiming victory, saying Likud would be the largest party and calling for a strong right-wing government. He ruled out relying on Palestinian parties. Eisenkot told supporters the public had voted against Netanyahu's tenure and warned against using security for political ends. Disputes flared too: the Central Elections Committee refused a last-minute request to keep polling stations open past 10pm, and Netanyahu hinted that the left and Arabs were trying to steal the vote. The committee found no evidence of systematic tampering.
The count is not finished. Special ballots from soldiers, diplomats, prisoners, and hospital patients, perhaps 600,000 to 650,000 in a record, will not be announced before Thursday.
The path ahead is long. President Herzog will choose the candidate most likely to form a government, who has 28 days, plus a possible two-week extension. Eisenkot would probably need the Joint List or Ra'am, yet his camp has rejected them, and the Joint List says it would be unlikely to join a coalition. Options include a minority government, a unity deal that drops Netanyahu's far-right and ultra-Orthodox partners, or another election. Netanyahu took 58 days to form his last government, and seat counts may still shift.
Just after 6am in Tel Aviv, Israelis woke to exit polls that settled nothing. The forecasts published by the country's major television networks put Benjamin Netanyahu's governing bloc and the opposition grouping led by former general Gadi Eisenkot at roughly 51 seats each in the 120-seat Knesset. Both are well short of the 61 needed to form a government. Earlier in the night, exit polls had given Eisenkot's side a slight lead. That lead has vanished.
The numbers moved again as counting went on. With 50% of the vote tallied, Israeli media reported Netanyahu's bloc ahead, projected at 56 seats on the current vote share. Eisenkot's bloc stood at 49, and the Palestinian parties at 15. Israeli exit polls are often revised and are notoriously imprecise, with final counts sometimes swinging by several seats. Turnout was the highest in more than two decades: over 77% of eligible voters, according to the central elections committee, about 7 percentage points above 2022.
The biggest shift is among Palestinian parties, which exit polls suggest could win 17 or 18 seats, up from 10. Palestinian citizens of Israel make up about 20% of the population, and many have sought a stronger political voice after decades of boycotting elections. Millions of Palestinians living under Israeli rule in the occupied West Bank and Gaza cannot vote, which has led to accusations of apartheid. The parties best placed to benefit are the Joint List and Ra'am. Ra'am's leader, Mansour Abbas, has sat in a right-leaning government before, and the party is seen as a potential kingmaker if Netanyahu cannot assemble a majority.
Both leaders spoke overnight. Netanyahu took the stage at a Jerusalem convention centre after 3am, unusually brief and without directly claiming victory. He said official results would show Likud as the largest party, called for a strong right-wing government, and said the Jewish and Zionist majority must unite. He ruled out a government that relies on Palestinian parties. He also listed leaders Israel has killed on his orders and suggested he was ready for a third bombing campaign against Iran alongside Donald Trump. Eisenkot told supporters in Tel Aviv that the public had voted against Netanyahu's tenure and that a worthy leader would announce his retirement from politics. He also warned against using Israel's security for political ends, a nod to fears that Netanyahu could use the uncertainty to strike Iran.
The night was not free of dispute. The Central Elections Committee rejected a last-ditch attempt by Netanyahu and several other parties to keep polling stations open past the 10pm deadline. Netanyahu suggested publicly that the "left and Arabs" were trying to steal the election. The committee said it had seen no evidence of systematic tampering. Trump, speaking to reporters, said he was hearing Netanyahu did well, while cautioning it was early. He later posted a quote attributed to "Irving C. Schwartz" crediting his own late endorsement for turning the tide.
The count itself is not finished. Only about 30% of votes had been tabulated at one point, and ballots from special polling stations will not be announced before Thursday. These serve soldiers on bases, diplomats abroad, prisoners and guards, and hospital patients. The elections committee reportedly expects 600,000 to 650,000 such votes, almost 10% of eligible voters and a record.
The path forward is complicated. No single party has ever won 61 seats, so coalitions are the rule. President Isaac Herzog will name the candidate with the best chance of forming a government, not necessarily the largest party's leader. That candidate has 28 days, with a possible two-week extension. Eisenkot would probably have to talk to the Joint List and Ra'am, though his camp kept them at arm's length in the campaign and he has said Arab-led parties do not meet Zionist criteria to govern. The Joint List has said it would be unlikely to join a coalition but has offered a "safety net" for anyone who ousts Netanyahu. Netanyahu's bloc has no obvious source of new seats except defections.
Other options are a minority government on vote-by-vote support, or a unity government in which Netanyahu drops his far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies. Channel 12 analyst Amit Segal read Netanyahu's call for unity as a possible olive branch to Eisenkot. Netanyahu and Benny Gantz tried such a deal in 2020, and it collapsed within a year. If nothing works, Israel returns to the polls, as it did five times between 2019 and 2022. After the November 2022 election, Netanyahu took 58 days to form his government. Expect weeks of bargaining, and seat counts that may still move.
Bemerkenswerte Zitate
We must put in place a strong government of the right. The Jewish and Zionist majority must unite.— Benjamin Netanyahu, election-night speech in Jerusalem
The Israeli public has voted against Netanyahu's service as prime minister; a worthy leader would announce his retirement from politics.— Gadi Eisenkot, speaking to supporters in Tel Aviv
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