Iran's Houthis could target second oil chokepoint, threatening global energy markets

A narrow waterway off Yemen's coast has become the second front in a brewing confrontation over global energy supplies. The Bab el Mandeb strait, situated between Yemen and the Horn of Africa and measuring just twenty miles across at its widest point, carries roughly ten percent of the world's oil and natural gas. It is the fourth-largest shipping chokepoint on Earth, and it is now squarely in the crosshairs of the Houthis, the Iran-backed rebel group that has already demonstrated its willingness to weaponize maritime commerce.

For two years, from 2023 to 2025, the Houthis attacked vessels moving through the strait with drones and missiles, effectively closing it to commercial traffic. They agreed to a ceasefire last year, but the group has never truly stepped back. This month, their leader signaled that restraint remains conditional, warning that their military trigger finger was ready if the conflict escalated. The world's two largest shipping companies—Switzerland's MSC and Denmark's Maersk—have already begun routing around the strait entirely, a precaution born from genuine fear of renewed attacks.

The strategic calculus is straightforward and alarming. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut down by Iranian threats, the Bab el Mandeb has become the alternative lifeline for Middle Eastern oil reaching global markets. If the Houthis resume their campaign there, the disruption would be catastrophic. Analysts estimate that even a modest resumption of attacks—a handful of missiles, a few drone strikes—could make offloading tankers impossible. That would push daily disruption from the current ten million barrels to somewhere between fifteen and seventeen million barrels. Crude prices, now hovering between ninety and one hundred dollars per barrel, would spike to one hundred fifty dollars or higher. The consequences would ripple far beyond energy: the strait also moves electronics, clothing, furniture, wheat, corn, and coffee to markets across Africa, Europe, and Asia.

Danny Citrinowicz, a former top Iran researcher for the Israeli Defense Forces, has little doubt about what comes next. He expects the Houthis will eventually move on the strait and simultaneously target Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port on the Red Sea, where the kingdom has built pipeline capacity to ship three to five million barrels daily while bypassing Hormuz. Noam Raydan, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, echoes the concern: the Houthis never truly stopped their maritime campaign, only paused it. If the war escalates, they will resume.

What remains unclear is whether the Trump administration's ongoing negotiations with Iran will produce a genuine off-ramp or merely delay the inevitable. The White House is simultaneously pursuing talks and deploying thousands of Marines to the region, with an initial wave expected to arrive around the deadline for a possible U.S. assault on Iranian energy infrastructure. Trump has suggested he wants to avoid striking Iran's oil facilities if a deal can be reached, claiming the U.S. is in a strong bargaining position. Yet the regime has learned something crucial over the past months: by closing Hormuz, it can exert enormous pressure on the global economy. That knowledge is unlikely to make Iranian leaders eager to capitulate.

Nate Swanson, who served as director for Iran on the White House National Security Council until 2025, has expressed surprise that Iran has not already moved to close the Bab el Mandeb strait. The reasons remain opaque—strategic patience, diminished capabilities, or perhaps some undisclosed arrangement with Saudi Arabia. But if negotiations falter or if Trump follows through on threats to attack Iranian energy infrastructure, the calculus could shift rapidly. Closing the strait would represent the next level of economic leverage for a regime that has already demonstrated it understands how to weaponize chokepoints. The question is not whether the Houthis are capable of doing it. The question is whether the current diplomatic moment will hold long enough to prevent them from trying.