Iran's fuel crisis deepens as war, sanctions squeeze supplies and public trust

Across Iran's cities, the morning routine has become a test of patience and desperation. Drivers arrive at filling stations before midnight or sleep in their cars, hoping to secure enough gasoline when the pumps open. Some stations close before serving everyone waiting in line. The shortage is no longer an abstract economic problem—it is visible on every street, documented in videos shared across social media, felt in the hours lost to waiting.

The numbers behind the crisis are stark. Iran faces a daily gasoline deficit of roughly 15 million liters. War damage to refineries, the difficulty of importing refined products, and tightening American sanctions have transformed what was already a structural weakness into an acute emergency. A resident of Karaj, west of Tehran, described the reality in September: some stations were limiting purchases to around 5 liters per customer. He spent 45 minutes just moving through the line, only to find other stations closed or overwhelmed. When he returned at 6 a.m. the next morning to avoid crowds, he found the same problem waiting.

Diesel shortages are hitting truck drivers with particular force. Lines at filling stations near major cities stretch for kilometers. Drivers sleep at stations waiting for tanker deliveries that may arrive around midday and supply only a few dozen vehicles. One driver described his existence as "either spent in the diesel line or on the road." For workers whose income depends directly on keeping their vehicles moving, every lost day compounds the damage—insurance premiums rise, tires wear, repairs accumulate. A driver who had waited since 8 a.m. after failing to find diesel the previous day faced another day of lost wages.

Public suspicion has deepened as the shortage coincides with changes to fuel composition. The Persian Gulf Star Oil Company confirmed it had begun testing methanol as an oxygenate in gasoline, comprising around 0.5 percent of the mixture. Iran's refining authorities say national standards permit methanol concentrations up to 3 percent, and officials insist the trial meets technical requirements. But the timing has fueled distrust. Videos circulating online show motorists holding bottles of unusually clear fuel and claiming quality has deteriorated. Some allege water or excessive alcohol is being mixed into supplies—allegations that have not been independently corroborated. However, at least one confirmed incident occurred in Rafsanjan, where local authorities acknowledged that water had been mixed with gasoline at a filling station after videos showed cars and motorcycles experiencing problems. Officials attributed it to a technical fault under investigation.

The damage to trust extends beyond the fuel itself. A Tehran resident spent roughly 1 billion tomans—about $5,250—repairing his car after its crankshaft failed, which he believed resulted from poor-quality gasoline, though such a connection has not been independently established. He expressed reluctance to publicly protest. In Rey, south of Tehran, motorists gathered outside a filling station after several cars were allegedly damaged following refueling. For people already exhausted by waiting, isolated incidents reinforce wider fears about what they are putting into their vehicles.

Behind the shortage lies a deeper question about price. Economist Hassan Mansour believes the government is preparing public opinion for higher fuel costs. Officials have repeatedly argued that Iranian gasoline prices are artificially low, that large volumes are smuggled abroad, and that the economy consumes far more energy per unit of output than comparable countries. The proposed solution is to bring domestic fuel prices closer to international levels. Mansour told Deutsche Welle: "Once again, the government finds itself preparing the ground for raising the price of energy carriers."

The financial condition of Iran's oil industry reveals why price increases may become unavoidable. Budget documents show the National Iranian Oil Company carries tens of billions of euros in debt to the central bank and commercial banks, while also owing substantial sums to the National Development Fund and facing major tax liabilities. When these debts cannot realistically be repaid, they weaken state finances and contribute to currency instability and inflation. Raising gasoline prices could serve both as a demand management measure and as a source of additional revenue.

Yet the government faces a politically dangerous choice. Imports are harder to finance and transport, while domestic production struggles to keep pace with consumption. Increasing output quickly requires investment and technology that Iran lacks. Reducing consumption means either rationing fuel more aggressively or raising prices—both carry severe political risks. Iranian authorities remember November 2019, when a sudden gasoline price increase triggered nationwide protests followed by a deadly crackdown and an internet shutdown. Today, the economic environment is considerably more fragile. War has damaged infrastructure, international sanctions are tightening, and household purchasing power has fallen sharply. Long fuel lines are just another source of frustration in a population already stretched thin. For Tehran, raising prices might help reduce the gasoline deficit. But doing so while people are already waiting overnight for fuel could transform an energy shortage into another crisis of public anger—something far more difficult to control.