We have not even started yet
At the mouth of the Persian Gulf, where a fifth of the world's oil passes through waters barely forty kilometers wide, the ancient contest between great powers and regional ambitions has sharpened into something dangerous. Iran's parliament speaker has warned that what the world has witnessed so far is merely a prelude, as American warships escort commercial vessels through a strait Iran has declared closed, and missiles fall on Gulf soil. The negotiations meant to contain this conflict have barely begun, yet the consequences — in energy prices, in rattled markets, in civilian lives lost on the water — are already spreading far beyond the region.
- Iran's most senior legislative voice has declared that its military response has 'not even started yet,' raising the specter of far greater escalation beyond the missile and drone exchanges already underway.
- US Apache and Seahawk helicopters destroyed six Iranian boats threatening commercial shipping on Monday, while the UAE reported cruise missile strikes on an energy facility in Fujairah — the conflict is no longer confined to the water.
- Iran insists the destroyed vessels carried civilian passengers, not combatants, accusing American forces of killing five people and framing Washington as the aggressor provoking its own consequences.
- Maersk managed to move one vessel through the strait under US military escort — a symbolic crack in Iran's blockade, but one that may invite fiercer retaliation rather than signal a breakthrough.
- European leaders from von der Leyen to Merz are sounding alarms as stock markets fall and crude prices surge, warning that a closed Hormuz is not a regional problem but a wound the global economy cannot long absorb.
- With only one round of direct peace talks completed and Saudi Arabia calling for political solutions, the path to de-escalation remains almost entirely unmapped.
Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf issued a stark warning this week, telling the United States through social media that Iran had barely begun its response to American operations in the Strait of Hormuz. His words arrived after days of fire exchanged across one of the world's most critical shipping corridors — a waterway through which roughly a fifth of global oil supply flows.
The confrontation had been building since US-Israeli strikes on Iranian territory more than two months ago ignited a broader regional conflict. Despite a ceasefire meant to contain the damage, the war had already spread across the Middle East, disrupting global markets and affecting hundreds of millions of people. When President Trump announced an escort operation to shepherd neutral vessels through the Gulf, the temperature rose sharply. On Monday, American military helicopters destroyed six Iranian boats threatening commercial shipping and repelled missile and drone attacks. The same day, the UAE reported Iranian strikes on its territory, including a cruise missile attack on an energy facility in Fujairah.
Iran denied losing any combat vessels, instead accusing Washington of killing five civilian passengers on boats in the strait. Its military warned that any US forces entering or approaching Hormuz would face attack. Yet Maersk, the global shipping giant, managed to move one vessel through under American escort — a small but symbolically significant breach in Iran's declared blockade.
The broader situation remained deeply deadlocked. Only a single round of direct peace talks between Washington and Tehran had taken place. Saudi Arabia urged a political solution. European leaders grew increasingly alarmed: EU chief Ursula von der Leyen called the Iranian attacks unacceptable and noted that Gulf instability carries direct consequences for Europe, while German Chancellor Friedrich Merz urged Tehran to stop 'holding the region and the world hostage.'
The economic shockwaves were already visible — stock markets fell and crude prices surged on fears the ceasefire could collapse entirely. Iran blamed American 'adventurism' for provoking the attacks on UAE territory, while Israel remained on high alert and the fragile Lebanon ceasefire continued to fray. With conditions for any diplomatic meeting still unmet and no cooling of the regional conflict in sight, the strait — and the world economy that depends on it — remained caught between two powers neither willing to yield.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who speaks for Iran's parliament, posted a message on social media that landed like a threat: the United States should know that Iran has barely begun its response to American operations in the Strait of Hormuz. "We know full well that the continuation of the status quo is intolerable for America; whilst we have not even started yet," he wrote, his words arriving after days of fire exchanged across one of the world's most vital shipping lanes.
The escalation had been building for weeks. The war itself—ignited more than two months earlier by US-Israeli strikes on Iranian territory—had already spread across the Middle East like spilled oil, disrupting global markets and affecting hundreds of millions of people despite a ceasefire that was supposed to hold. Now, with President Trump announcing an escort operation to shepherd neutral vessels through the Gulf, the temperature was rising again. On Monday, American Apache and Seahawk helicopters destroyed six Iranian boats that were threatening commercial shipping. US forces also repelled missile and drone attacks. The same day, the United Arab Emirates reported fresh Iranian strikes on its soil, including an attack on an energy facility in Fujairah.
Iran denied that any of its combat vessels had been damaged in the American strikes. Instead, it accused Washington of killing five civilian passengers aboard boats in the waterway. The military's position was unambiguous: any US forces that entered or approached the Hormuz strait would face attack. Yet despite the rhetoric and the clashes, at least one major shipping company found a way through. Maersk, the global freight giant, successfully moved one of its vessels through the strait under American escort on Tuesday, a small but symbolic breach in Iran's blockade.
The broader picture was one of deadlock. Negotiations between Washington and Tehran had stalled almost entirely, with only a single round of direct peace talks completed so far. Saudi Arabia, a key American ally, was calling for a political solution. The European Union and its member states—Germany, France, Britain—were growing alarmed. The longer the strait remained closed, the more their economies would suffer. Ursula von der Leyen, the EU's chief, called the Iranian attacks unacceptable and noted that "security in the (Gulf) region has direct consequences for Europe." German Chancellor Friedrich Merz urged Tehran to return to negotiations and "stop holding the region and the world hostage."
The economic shock was already reverberating. Stock markets sank on Tuesday as crude prices surged, driven by fears that the ceasefire itself might collapse. Energy costs for consumers worldwide had already climbed because of the war, creating political pressure on Trump months before midterm elections. The UAE said four cruise missiles had been launched at its territory; three were intercepted and one fell into the sea. Iran also fired drones at a tanker connected to the UAE's state-owned oil company, Adnoc.
Tehran claimed it had no planned program to target oil facilities in the Emirates, but blamed the American military for provoking the attacks by attempting to break Iran's blockade. "What happened was the product of the US military's adventurism," an Iranian military official told state television, insisting that Washington bore responsibility for the consequences. Meanwhile, Israel remained on high alert, monitoring developments after the US said it had shot down Iranian missiles and drones. The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon was also fragile, with both sides continuing sporadic attacks. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said any meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would require a security agreement and an end to Israeli strikes—conditions that seemed distant as the broader regional conflict showed no signs of cooling.
Notable Quotes
We know full well that the continuation of the status quo is intolerable for America; whilst we have not even started yet.— Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran's parliament speaker
Security in the Gulf region has direct consequences for Europe.— Ursula von der Leyen, EU chief
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
When Ghalibaf says "we have not even started yet," what does that actually mean in military terms?
It's a signal that Iran believes it has room to escalate—that the attacks we've seen so far, the missiles and drones and boat strikes, are not the full measure of what it's capable of or willing to do. It's a threat dressed as a statement of fact.
But Iran is also denying its boats were hit. Isn't that a sign they're losing?
Not necessarily. Denial is part of the messaging game. What matters more is that they're still in the fight, still attacking, still controlling the strait. They're saying: we took your shots and we're still here.
Why does Trump's escort operation matter so much if it's just moving ships through?
Because it breaks the blockade. If American military power can reliably move commercial traffic through the strait, Iran's leverage collapses. That's why they're threatening escalation—they're trying to make the cost too high for the US to sustain the operation.
The Europeans are worried about their economies. Can they do anything?
Not militarily. They're dependent on the strait staying open, so they're trying to pressure both sides toward negotiation. But with talks deadlocked and both sides convinced the other is bluffing, there's not much leverage in the room.
What happens if Iran actually does escalate beyond what we've seen?
The ceasefire breaks. The war spreads wider. Energy prices spike further. And the global economy, already wounded, takes another serious hit. That's the real threat beneath the military posturing.