Iran warns allies to stay out as drone strikes hit US-Italian base in Kuwait

On Sunday, March 15, Iran issued a stark warning to its neighbors and the wider world: stay out of this war. The message came as a drone struck Ali Al Salem airbase in Kuwait, a facility shared by American and Italian forces. The unmanned aircraft destroyed belonged to Italy; no one was killed. But the strike was a reminder that the conflict spreading across the region had no clear boundaries, and that countries caught in between faced a choice about which side, if any, they would support.

Tehran's top diplomat, Abbas Araghchi, framed the warning in blunt terms. The United States, he argued, was not deterring trouble in the region—it was inviting it. He called on neighboring countries to expel foreign military forces from their soil, and he backed this up with a claim: Iran had evidence that American bases on their territory were being used to launch attacks. When asked about negotiations, Araghchi was equally firm. "We don't see any reason why we should talk with Americans," he said, "because we were talking with them when they decided to attack us."

The timing of Iran's warning was pointed. Just a day earlier, President Trump had appealed directly to China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and others to help secure the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world's most critical shipping lanes, through which roughly a fifth of global oil and gas normally flows. Since the conflict began on February 28, Iran had threatened to choke off that passage, and the markets had responded with alarm. Oil prices had jumped 40 percent. Energy traders were spooked. Trump wanted a coalition to keep the waterway open.

But the countries he named were not rushing to answer the call. Britain said it was "discussing options" with allies. Japan's ruling party said the legal bar for sending warships was "extremely high." South Korea was monitoring the situation. France received a direct warning from Araghchi to avoid any action that could escalate things further. The diplomatic response was cautious, almost reluctant—a far cry from the unified front Trump seemed to be seeking.

Meanwhile, the human toll of the conflict was becoming visible in the numbers. Iranian health officials reported that more than 1,200 people had been killed by American and Israeli strikes, though these figures could not be independently verified. The United Nations refugee agency said as many as 3.2 million people had been displaced within Iran. The Pentagon, for its part, claimed that American and Israeli forces had struck more than 15,000 targets across the country.

Yet in Tehran itself, life was beginning to move again. Traffic was heavier than it had been. Cafes and restaurants were reopening. More than a third of the stalls in Tajrish bazaar, a major shopping district, had come back to life. People were queuing at ATMs to withdraw cash. Nowruz, the Persian New Year, was approaching, and despite the war overhead, the city was preparing to mark it. In other cities, shoppers were out despite steep price increases. The main squares closed each night for government demonstrations, but during the day, commerce was resuming.

The energy crisis, however, was real and global. The International Energy Agency announced that it would release 400 million barrels from its strategic reserves, with supplies becoming available immediately in Asia and Oceania, followed by releases in the Americas and Europe in the coming weeks. Trump doubled down on his position, telling NBC News that he believed Iran wanted to negotiate but that he was holding out for better terms. "Iran wants to make a deal, and I don't want to make it because the terms aren't good enough yet," he said. Araghchi flatly denied this. Israel's military spokesman, Brigadier General Effie Defrin, added another layer of uncertainty: "We still have thousands of targets in Iran, and we are identifying new targets every day."

What was becoming clear was that the conflict had created a kind of stalemate—not on the battlefield, where strikes continued, but in the diplomatic sphere. Iran was signaling strength and resolve. The West was divided on how to respond. Energy markets were in turmoil. And the countries in between, the ones Trump was trying to recruit, were watching carefully before committing to anything.