Global fossil fuel emissions are set to dip slightly this year, a small and uncomfortable pause in a long climb. The cause is not a turn in climate policy but the sting of expensive energy, after the American attack on Iran and the snarl of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Researchers at the Global Carbon Project see the same pattern humanity has seen before, in 2009 and 2020, when falling emissions came from hardship rather than wisdom and rebounded once the economy steadied. The question now is whether this brief relief becomes a lasting change or simply a lull.
Iran War Energy Shock Drives Temporary Dip in Global Emissions, Study Finds
Global fossil fuel emissions are set to dip slightly this year, a small and uncomfortable pause in a long climb. The cause is not a turn in climate policy but the sting of expensive energy, after the American attack on Iran and the snarl of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Researchers at the Global Carbon Project see the same pattern humanity has seen before, in 2009 and 2020, when falling emissions came from hardship rather than wisdom and rebounded once the economy steadied. The question now is whether this brief relief becomes a lasting change or simply a lull.
Global fossil fuel emissions are on course to fall slightly this year, but no one studying the numbers is celebrating. The Global Carbon Project projects a 0.4% drop in emissions from oil, gas and coal in 2026, breaking a decade-long climb of roughly 0.9% a year. The cause is the price of energy, which surged after the US attack on Iran and the disruption of supply through the Strait of Hormuz.
The breakdown is uneven. Oil fell about 1.9% and gas about 0.3%, while coal kept rising, by around 0.6%. Glen Peters of the CICERO Center in Norway put it bluntly: it is a little good news for the wrong reasons. A single year of decline is not a peak unless structural change lies behind it, and this one does not.
This is the third such dip in recent years, after the 2009 financial crisis and the COVID pandemic in 2020. Each time, emissions rebounded once economies recovered. Renewables helped, with solar, wind and electric vehicles making a measurable difference, but not enough to bring the decline on their own. Pierre Friedlingstein of the Global Carbon Budget Office argues that lasting progress depends on rapidly deploying clean energy.
Even the headline has a catch. Total carbon dioxide still rose about 1%, driven by deforestation and peat fires that outran the fossil decline. The findings arrive as leaders gather in Turkey for COP31, and the question hanging over them is whether this dip will hold or fade as energy markets settle.
Global fossil fuel emissions are on course to fall slightly this year, according to a new study. The cause is not a breakthrough in climate policy. It is the price of energy, which jumped after the US attack on Iran and the disruption of supply through the Strait of Hormuz.
The analysis comes from the Global Carbon Project, an international research group. It projects that emissions from oil, gas and coal will drop by 0.4% in 2026. Over the past decade, those emissions had been climbing by 0.9% a year, so the projected decline marks a break from the recent trend.
The breakdown by fuel is uneven. Oil emissions fell by 1.9% in 2026 and natural gas by 0.3%. Coal went the other way, continuing to rise by around 0.6%.
Glen Peters, a co-author at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research in Norway, was blunt about what the numbers mean. The direction is down, he said, which sounds good, but it is largely driven by the war in Iran and what has happened in the Strait of Hormuz. In his words, it is a little bit of good news, but for the wrong reasons.
Peters also cautioned against reading too much into a single year. A one-year drop is not a peak, he said, unless structural change is behind it. A genuine peak would look like a slow climb followed by a slow decline, signaling a long-term shift. That is not the pattern here. Oil emissions were rising, Peters said, and then suddenly dropped about 2%.
This is the third time in recent years that global carbon pollution has fallen. The earlier declines came during the global economic crisis of 2009 and during the COVID pandemic in 2020. In both cases, emissions climbed again once economies recovered.
Renewables did contribute to the data this year. Solar panels, wind farms and electric vehicles made a difference, the study indicates, but not enough to cut emissions on their own. Pierre Friedlingstein, a co-author at the Global Carbon Budget Office at the University, said the long-term answer remains the rapid deployment of clean energy technologies.
The headline figure also leaves out part of the picture. Total global carbon dioxide emissions still rose by about 1%, the study warns. The reason is land use change, including deforestation and peat fires, which grew too fast to be offset by the small decline in fossil fuel burning.
The findings were released while world leaders are meeting in Turkey for the United Nations' COP31 climate conference. Based on the 2009 and 2020 precedents, the thing to watch is whether emissions rebound as energy markets settle.
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