Nearly nine months into a war that has reshaped the rhythms of the Gulf, an American president now calls the fighting militarily over, while Tehran insists no talks are happening at all. Between those two accounts sits a fragile quiet, held in place by the threat of economic pressure rather than by any settlement. The unresolved knot is the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage whose fate ripples into the cost of living far from its waters. As the midterm elections reshape American power at home, both sides appear to be measuring time as much as territory.
Iran War Calms Under Trump, but Core Disputes Over Hormuz and Uranium Remain Unresolved
"No shooting going on" is not the same as a war that is over.
Mark
Trump says the war is effectively over. Is it?
Mimi
Not by Iran's account, and not really by the analyst's. Ian Kelly calls it a virtual ceasefire: no significant shooting, but the Strait of Hormuz and the uranium question are untouched.
Luke
Worth noting the claims clash directly. Trump and Rubio say talks are happening; Rezaei says they aren't. The reporting can't tell us who is right.
Mark
Why would Iran deny talks?
Mimi
Rezaei's own explanation is that the American claims are meant to ease economic pressure and lower oil prices. So he's casting the talk of negotiations itself as a market tactic.
Luke
That's his characterization, though, not established fact. We only have his word on motive.
Mark
What does the midterm result change?
Mimi
Democrats take both chambers next year. Kelly thinks Iran is waiting to see whether Congress cuts or limits war funding.
Luke
Important caveat: that's Kelly's reading of Iran's thinking. Nothing here shows Tehran saying so, and no funding cut has actually happened yet.
Mark
And the uranium goal?
Mimi
Kelly thinks Iran won't negotiate it away, which could push the US back to force. He says the White House has painted itself into a corner.
Luke
That's a forecast from one analyst, and a fairly pointed one. It's a prediction, not a development.
Il Polso
- Trump declares the war 'effectively over' while Iran's security chief flatly denies any negotiations are underway.
- Attacks on commercial tankers in the Strait of Hormuz keep oil prices high and living costs rising across the US and beyond.
- Washington's blockades and containment strain against two unmet goals: full control of the strait and surrender of Iran's enriched uranium.
- Newly empowered Democrats in Congress may cut war funding, while Iran waits and its own resources dwindle.
- Analysts warn that the current 'virtual ceasefire' could snap back into force, with APEC in Shenzhen and G20 in Miami as the next possible turning points.
Nearly nine months into a war that has reshaped the rhythms of the Gulf, an American president now calls the fighting militarily over, while Tehran insists no talks are happening at all. Between those two accounts sits a fragile quiet, held in place by the threat of economic pressure rather than by any settlement. The unresolved knot is the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage whose fate ripples into the cost of living far from its waters. As the midterm elections reshape American power at home, both sides appear to be measuring time as much as territory.
Almost nine months into the war with Iran, President Donald Trump has started telling Americans it is over, at least in a military sense. Secretary of State Marco Rubio backs him, arguing that economic pressure and talks are doing the work that bombs once did.
Tehran rejects that story. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, says no negotiations are taking place and that American talk of them is meant to ease pressure and bring down oil prices.
Neither side has fully closed the conflict. Former US ambassador Ian Kelly, now at Northwestern University, calls the moment a 'virtual ceasefire': the shooting has largely stopped, but the central questions are still open. For him, those questions center on the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian attacks on ships have driven up prices. Iran wants American forces out of the Gulf, but Kelly believes that will not happen until the strait reopens.
Home politics now weigh heavily. Democrats are set to control both chambers of Congress after heavy Republican losses in the midterms. Kelly thinks Tehran is watching to see whether lawmakers cut or sharply limit war funding, and he doubts Congress will keep paying at current levels. He also sees a standoff of mutual exhaustion, a kind of cat and mouse game as Iran's own resources shrink.
The administration's two stated aims, full control of the strait and the removal of Iran's enriched uranium, remain out of reach. Kelly warns that without visible progress, American authority will erode, and that even attempting either goal could shatter the calm. Because Iran is unlikely to give up its nuclear program at the table, he expects renewed force to be likely.
Oil markets, meanwhile, are not expected to settle soon. Prices already reflect the risk of renewed instability, and only a deal restoring confidence that tankers will be safe would change that. Two summits may matter more than the battlefield: APEC in Shenzhen, where Trump may meet Putin and Xi, and the G20 in Miami in December.
Almost nine months into the war with Iran, US President Donald Trump has begun telling the public it is over. In a military sense, he says, it is "effectively over." His secretary of state, Marco Rubio, has backed him, saying there is no need for major combat operations in Iran because economic pressure and negotiations between the two sides are working.
Tehran tells a different story. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, denied that any negotiations are taking place. Speaking to the Lebanese channel Al Mayadeen, he said American claims of continuing talks are aimed at easing economic pressure and bringing down oil prices.
Neither side has declared the conflict finished in every sense. Ian Kelly, a former US ambassador and former senior State Department official who now works at Northwestern University, described the present situation to DW as something like a "virtual ceasefire." He said there is significant de-escalation, but the central questions remain open. In his words, there is no shooting going on, nothing really significant, but he would not say the war is over.
For Kelly, the heart of the matter is the Strait of Hormuz, the shipping lane between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Iran's attacks on commercial vessels there have pushed up oil prices and raised living costs in the United States and elsewhere. Iran wants the US to pull its large strike forces out of the Gulf, Kelly said, but that will not happen until Iran agrees to reopen the strait.
Politics at home now shape the picture. The midterm results will give Democrats control of both the House and the Senate next year, after heavy losses for Trump's Republicans. Kelly reads Iran as waiting to see whether Congress cuts or sharply limits war funding. He considers it unlikely that Congress will keep paying for the war at current levels. He also pointed to Iran's own dwindling resources, which makes the standoff what he called a game of cat and mouse.
Kelly argues Republicans need the war settled before the 2028 election. He links their defeat partly to Trump's broken 2024 promise of no more "forever wars," and says Trump started another one with no obvious exit strategy.
The administration says it can live with containment through land and sea blockades. Kelly believes its authority will erode further if it cannot show progress on its two stated aims: full control of the Strait of Hormuz and forcing Iran to give up its enriched uranium. He called both quite possible, but warned that even trying could break the current calm. Because the White House has stressed denying Iran a nuclear weapon as its main goal, and he does not expect Iran to negotiate that away, he thinks the US will probably have to use force again. "The White House is in a real pickle," he said.
Time also presses on Iran. Ali Mohammadi, a France-based expert on Iranian affairs, told DW earlier this week that Iran's limit in the strait is economic rather than military, since continued war badly damages its economy. Even so, the strait remains Tehran's main leverage in any future talks.
Oil markets are unlikely to settle soon. Kelly said that while this remains a "phony war," prices will stay high because they already factor in a possible return to instability. Only an agreement that gives all sides and the markets confidence in a return to the status quo would change that, and restoring trust that tankers will not be shot at again will be difficult.
Two meetings may matter more than events on Iranian soil or water. Kelly expects the war to feature at this month's APEC summit in Shenzhen, where Trump is reportedly due to meet Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. He thinks Russia benefits from keeping the US tied down, while China, a big customer, wants a resolution. A G20 summit in Miami follows in December.
Citazioni salienti
I wouldn't say the war is over. I would say there's no shooting going on, nothing really significant.— Ian Kelly, former US ambassador, Northwestern University
Iran's limitation in the Strait of Hormuz is economic rather than military.— Ali Mohammadi, France-based Iran expert
Vuoi la storia completa?
Leggi l'originale su Deutsche Welle ↗