In the corridors of New York and the back channels of Doha, Iran and the United States are engaged in the ancient choreography of adversaries who cannot yet speak directly to one another. Qatar carries the messages between them — proposals about oil, sanctions, and the fate of a strait through which a fifth of the world's energy once flowed freely. The core dispute is not whether to negotiate, but who must move first, and whether trust can be manufactured before it is earned.
Iran, US Edge Closer to Nuclear Talks as Qatari Mediators Shuttle Between Capitals
There would be no agreement unless Iran's nuclear program was addressed.
Mark
So Iran proposed a seven-day plan to reopen the strait. Why would the US reject something that specific?
Mimi
Trump called it unacceptable on Saturday, but the US official told Al Jazeera the talks are still positive and constructive. The real issue isn't the timeline—it's that Iran wants sanctions relief and an open strait first, then nuclear talks. The US wants nuclear progress as a condition of any relief.
Luke
Right, but we should be careful here. The US official said Iran has indicated flexibility on nuclear issues. That's not nothing. But we don't know what flexibility means—is it a shift in their enrichment levels, their stockpiles, their inspections? The official didn't say.
Mark
So both sides are saying they're flexible, but they're still far apart?
Mimi
On the sequencing, yes. Who moves first, what counts as a move, when does the other side reciprocate. Those are the real sticking points. The Qataris are trying to find a sequence both sides can live with.
Luke
And we should note that Trump said this will go pretty quickly and the US will win. That's not a negotiating posture that typically produces compromise. It's a statement of intent to prevail.
Mark
What about the strait itself? Is it actually closed, or are ships getting through?
Mimi
It's functionally closed to normal traffic. Iran closed it in late February, and Iranian attacks on vessels since then have sharply curtailed shipping. But the US has set up a military-supervised route along Oman's coast, and Admiral Cooper said American forces have assisted over 2,000 transits and more than a billion barrels of oil recently.
Luke
So it's not completely sealed, but it's severely constrained. And that's costing money—oil prices are above $100 a barrel. But September exports from major Middle Eastern producers did rebound to 12.8 million barrels per day, the highest since the war began.
Mark
Still well below February levels though?
Mimi
Much lower. February was 18.8 million barrels per day. So the workarounds are helping, but they're not replacing normal traffic.
Luke
And we don't know how long those workarounds can sustain themselves, or whether Iran might escalate further. The Iranian military officials are issuing pretty strong warnings about defending the strait.
Mark
What's the next move?
Mimi
Araghchi said he expected Washington's response by Tuesday. The Qataris know how to reach him in Tehran. So we're waiting to see if the US counters Iran's proposal with something of its own, or if they hold firm on their position.
El Pulso
- Iran's Foreign Minister left New York expecting a final American answer by Tuesday, but Trump had already called the proposal unacceptable — leaving mediators to bridge a gap that neither side has publicly acknowledged closing.
- The closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February has pushed oil above $100 a barrel and forced tankers onto secret night routes along Oman's coast with tracking systems switched off.
- Iran's seven-day sequencing plan — sanctions relief and fund releases first, nuclear talks only after the strait reopens — collides directly with Washington's insistence that nuclear progress must come before any deal is struck.
- US and Qatari officials describe talks as 'positive and constructive,' yet Iranian commanders simultaneously warn of devastating responses to any threat, and the Supreme Leader declares the era of foreign domination finished.
- The machinery of negotiation keeps turning even as both governments perform defiance for their domestic audiences, with Pakistani and Qatari envoys shuttling between capitals carrying positions not yet fully revealed.
In the corridors of New York and the back channels of Doha, Iran and the United States are engaged in the ancient choreography of adversaries who cannot yet speak directly to one another. Qatar carries the messages between them — proposals about oil, sanctions, and the fate of a strait through which a fifth of the world's energy once flowed freely. The core dispute is not whether to negotiate, but who must move first, and whether trust can be manufactured before it is earned.
On Monday in New York, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Qatari mediators to discuss a proposal centered on one critical question: the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. He expected Washington's final answer by Tuesday and departed for Tehran, leaving Qatar to carry the message forward.
The Iranian plan, presented at the UN General Assembly, offered a structured sequence: the US would release frozen funds, lift sanctions, and end its naval blockade within four to five days. On day seven, the strait would reopen and nuclear negotiations could begin. Trump rejected it as unacceptable. Yet behind that public dismissal, a US official told Al Jazeera that indirect talks were continuing — positive and constructive, in the official's words — while making clear that no agreement would be reached without progress on Iran's nuclear program.
The human and economic cost of the impasse was visible in the numbers. Since Iran closed the strait after the US-Israeli offensive began in late February, oil prices had climbed above $100 a barrel. Middle Eastern crude exports had partially recovered to 12.8 million barrels per day by September, still far below the 18.8 million exported before the war. American forces had quietly supervised over 2,000 nighttime transits along Oman's coast, helping move more than a billion barrels through improvised workarounds.
The gap between the two sides was not about whether to negotiate, but about sequencing — who concedes first, and what constitutes enough movement to justify the other side's next step. Trump spoke of imminent victory and falling gas prices. In Tehran, Supreme Leader Khamenei declared the age of foreign domination over, and military commanders warned of devastating responses to any threat against the strait.
Qatari and Pakistani mediators continued shuttling between capitals, carrying proposals whose full contents remained undisclosed. Whether the distance between Washington's preconditions and Tehran's demands could be closed in days or weeks — or whether it would widen further — depended on moves that neither side had yet chosen to make.
In New York on Monday, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi sat down with Qatari mediators to discuss a proposal that could reshape the conflict grinding through the Middle East. The centerpiece was simple in concept but loaded with conditions: reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil and gas moved before the war began in late February. Araghchi told Iranian state media that the mediators would carry the ideas from their conversation to Washington, and he expected a final American response by Tuesday. Then he left for Tehran, confident that Qatar knew how to reach him when the answer came.
The Iranian plan, unveiled Friday at the United Nations General Assembly, laid out a sequence: the US would release frozen Iranian funds, lift sanctions, and end its naval blockade of Iranian ports. These steps could be completed in four or five days, Araghchi said. By day seven, the strait would reopen and negotiations on a final agreement—including Iran's nuclear program—could begin. It was a structured pathway, a way to break the deadlock. President Donald Trump dismissed it on Saturday as unacceptable.
Behind the scenes, though, the machinery of negotiation was still turning. A US official told Al Jazeera that indirect discussions were continuing and described them as positive and constructive. But the official was clear on one point: there would be no agreement unless Iran's nuclear program was addressed. Trump, the official said, was willing to relieve sanctions and release frozen funds in exchange for progress on nuclear issues. The two sides, however, remained far apart on the crucial question of sequencing—who moves first, and what counts as sufficient movement before the other side acts.
The stakes were measured in barrels and dollars. When Iran closed the strait shortly after the US and Israel launched their offensive on February 28, shipping through one of the world's most critical chokepoints nearly stopped. Iranian attacks on commercial vessels since then had sharply curtailed traffic and pushed oil prices above $100 a barrel. Yet by September, crude exports from major Middle Eastern producers had rebounded to 12.8 million barrels per day, the highest level since the war began—still far below the 18.8 million barrels exported in February. Some ships had found workarounds: a US military-supervised route hugging Oman's coast, traveling at night with tracking systems disabled, offloading oil to tankers outside the strait. Admiral Brad Cooper, head of US Central Command, said American forces had assisted 2,000 such transits and more than a billion barrels of oil in recent months.
The US had also tightened its own pressure. It imposed a blockade on Iranian ports and threatened secondary sanctions against airports and companies doing business with Iranian airlines. The United Arab Emirates, Iraq, and Oman had already cancelled related flights. The US official acknowledged that Iran had indicated flexibility on nuclear issues, but the gap between the two sides remained wide—not on whether to negotiate, but on how to begin and what each side would give up first.
Trump spoke to reporters on Monday with confidence bordering on certainty. We're going to win, he said. It's going to go pretty quickly. Gas prices would fall once the US won the war. In Tehran, the tone was defiant. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, in a message marking the Iran-Iraq War and the 2024 killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, declared that the days of foreign domination were over. The enemy had suffered painful blows from Iran's combatants and the guardians of the strait, he said, and dared not venture beyond the Arabian Sea. Major-General Ali Abdollahi, the armed forces chief of staff, warned that Iran and allied forces would deliver a decisive and devastating response to any threat. Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari insisted the strait remained closed and that Iranian forces were ready to prevent enemy forces from entering the country.
What remained unclear was whether the gap between these positions—the US insistence on nuclear progress as a precondition, Iran's demand for sanctions relief and an open strait first—could be bridged. Qatari and Pakistani mediators were shuttling between capitals, carrying proposals and responses. The official said both sides remained apart on timing and the sequencing of commitments. Whether that distance could be closed in days or weeks, or whether it would widen again, depended on moves not yet made and positions not yet revealed.
Citas Notables
We talked about ideas and how to find solutions to fulfil Iran's conditions and how to implement those conditions. They had some ideas, and we had a discussion that they will also present to the American side.— Abbas Araghchi, Iran's Foreign Minister
Iran has indicated they are flexible on the nuclear issues, but the sides still remain apart on the timing of the commitments and who takes which steps first.— US official to Al Jazeera
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