A war chosen far away has a way of arriving at the doorsteps of people who never voted for it. In the weeks around mid-November, European prosecutors and intelligence officials began tying a scattered run of plots, arsons, and cyberattacks to Iran or the militias it backs, and the common thread appears to be a government that now counts some European states among its enemies. The sense of unease is not only about what has been foiled, but about what may come if the fighting resumes, and about a continent that wanted no part of the conflict yet finds itself inside its shadow.
Iran-Linked Plots and Cyberattacks Fuel Rising Anxiety Across Europe as War Economics Bite
Arson attacks on Jewish community sites and attempted terrorist attacks have unsettled residents across Britain and Europe, though the article reports no confirmed deaths.
In Europe, that is not how it feels.
Mark
Why does this feel different from the usual Europe-security story?
Mimi
Because the targets are ordinary. Supermarket refrigerators, blood banks, a base in the English countryside. Millions of dollars of food rotted in France alone.
Mark
And the Fairford plot is the anchor?
Mimi
Yes. Five men were stopped in three vans on Sept. 27, and a U.S. indictment says a Kataib Hezbollah commander directed it from a New York jail.
Luke
Careful, though. That is what prosecutors allege. Iran forcefully denies involvement in Fairford, and the indictment is not a verdict.
Mark
What about the refrigerator attacks?
Mimi
France publicly accused Iran of orchestrating its attacks. Similar ones hit seven other countries this month.
Luke
Right, but the article attributes the wider spread to Iran or proxies without saying how that was established. France's accusation is confirmed as France's accusation, nothing more.
Mark
Is everything bad in Europe tied to Iran?
Mimi
No. Russia is blamed for sabotage, and the Italian school bomb threats have no known source.
Luke
And the Friday flight grounding was a technical failure, officials say. Worth keeping that apart from the rest.
Mark
What do the analysts add?
Mimi
That Iran's targeting has broadened beyond dissidents and hosts of U.S. forces. That is their reading of a pattern, not an announced policy.
O Pulso
- A foiled plot against RAF Fairford, the English base that once hosted American B-1 bombers, has pushed British security services into a rare state of alarm.
- Cyberattacks have turned supermarket refrigerators into tools of spoilage, rotting food across seven or more European countries while blood banks in France were hacked.
- Arson fires at Jewish community sites and an alleged plan against Jewish institutions in London have left residents uneasy, though no deaths have been confirmed.
- Iran denies involvement while investigators build cases through indictments and arrests, and Britain has raised its terror threat level to SEVERE.
- Analysts warn that if American hostilities resume, pressure on European security services will intensify sharply, and the coming weeks will test how far that pressure reaches.
A war chosen far away has a way of arriving at the doorsteps of people who never voted for it. In the weeks around mid-November, European prosecutors and intelligence officials began tying a scattered run of plots, arsons, and cyberattacks to Iran or the militias it backs, and the common thread appears to be a government that now counts some European states among its enemies. The sense of unease is not only about what has been foiled, but about what may come if the fighting resumes, and about a continent that wanted no part of the conflict yet finds itself inside its shadow.
On Veterans Day, President Trump told a crowd at Arlington that the war with Iran had been a complete success, and that the world would soon be safer. Across Europe, people are not feeling that safety. A growing list of attempted attacks has unsettled officials and ordinary residents alike, from a foiled plot against an American air base in England to arson at Jewish sites and cyberattacks that pushed refrigerators and blood banks out of safe temperatures.
The Fairford case is the clearest thread. Five British men were arrested near the base in September, and a New York indictment now alleges that a Kataib Hezbollah commander, Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood al-Saadi, directed the plot from a jail cell. The United States pulled its bombers from Fairford afterward, and Mildenhall aircraft were evacuated last week after another drone plot was detected. Iran has denied any role.
European governments had tried to stay out of the war, but the fallout has reached their kitchens and heating bills as well as their security. Officials are now warning that Iran sees some European states as threats to its survival, and that the pressure on security services will grow if the fighting resumes. Whether the next weeks bring calm or escalation is still an open question.
On Veterans Day this past week, President Trump stood at Arlington National Cemetery and called his decision to go to war with Iran a complete success. When the conflict ends, he said, and it will be soon, the world will be safer and more peaceful. In Europe, that is not how it feels.
A growing number of attempted attacks across the continent and in Britain are unsettling security officials and the public. They include a foiled plot against a major American military base, arson attacks on Jewish community sites, and cyberattacks that pushed up temperatures in refrigerators and blood banks. Many have been attributed to Iran or to proxies acting for it. Iran has forcefully denied involvement in the Fairford plot. The unease deepened on Friday, when the U.S. government grounded all air travel for hours. Officials later said the cause was a technical failure, and the Transportation Department blamed "antiquated, legacy communications equipment." As of Saturday, American officials said it did not appear to be a cyberattack. The grounding also affected flights at Heathrow and other international hubs.
Europeans were already frustrated. The war, which Mr. Trump and the Israeli government started in February, has brought higher gas prices because of disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Groceries cost more, and heating homes this winter has become far less affordable.
The Fairford case is the clearest. On Sept. 27, police apprehended five British men driving three vans near R.A.F. Fairford, the English air base that hosted American bombers flying sorties to Iran. Two people were later charged with national security offenses, and prosecutors said they believed the plot was orchestrated by a man working for the Iranian state. A federal grand jury indictment unsealed in New York this past week adds detail. It says the attempted "European terrorist attacks" were directed by Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood al-Saadi, a commander of Kataib Hezbollah, the Iraqi militia that is among Iran's most powerful proxies. Investigators say he helped plan and start the Fairford attack from a New York jail, where he was held on charges of plotting attacks on Jewish institutions in Europe, including London. After the plot, the United States withdrew all 12 of its B-1 bombers from Fairford, citing new threats. Last week as many as a dozen American aircraft were evacuated from R.A.F. Mildenhall after officials detected an Iran-backed drone plot.
The cyber campaign has spread. In October, an attack on grocery refrigerators in France rotted millions of dollars' worth of food. The tactic was repeated this month in supermarkets in Belgium, Luxembourg, Sweden, Ireland, the Netherlands, Estonia and Finland. Several French blood banks were hacked too. On Monday, France accused Iran of orchestrating the refrigerator attacks, calling it a large-scale sabotage operation.
European governments tried to stay out of the war. Spain, Germany, France and Britain all said they would not join offensive attacks on Tehran, even though some host American bases. Keir Starmer, then Britain's prime minister, blocked offensive use of British bases but, after hesitation, allowed what he called defensive bombing by American forces. Soon after, Britain's Joint Terrorism Analysis Center raised the threat level to "SEVERE — an attack is highly likely," citing arson attacks and incidents against British Jews and opponents of the Iranian regime. MI5 director general Ken McCallum said last month that Iran has shifted toward "harder targets, like military sites."
Analysts see a widening pattern. Ellie Geranmayeh of the European Council on Foreign Relations said Iran is signaling that if the U.S. resumes the war, Europe becomes part of the target list, and called it a sign of desperation. Viktorija Rusinaite, of the European Center of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats in Helsinki, said that before February Iran mostly targeted dissidents and American and Israeli interests. Now it seems to view some European states as threats to regime survival. She added that Russia-Iran cooperation, including arms trade and expertise, could strengthen Iranian hybrid capabilities. The U.S. State Department has issued Level 2 travel advisories for many European countries. Gen. Roly Walker, Britain's chief of the general staff, told troops last month that political leaders would soon have a frank conversation with citizens about where the risk lies.
Not every disruption has a known author. Russia's war in Ukraine has brought sabotage, from signal jamming over Sweden to drones over Danish and Belgian airports and explosives smuggled into Poland in cans of corn. This week, bomb threats emailed to thousands of Italian schools forced hundreds to evacuate, and hoax threats grounded or diverted planes in several countries. Officials have not said who is behind them. What to watch is whether American hostilities resume, which analysts say would raise the pressure on Europe's security services.
Citações Notáveis
Iran is signaling very clearly to the Europeans that if the U.S. resumes the war, Europe is going to also become part of the target list for counter escalation.— Ellie Geranmayeh, European Council on Foreign Relations
Iran has shifted its ambitions to attack harder targets, like military sites.— Ken McCallum, director general of MI5 (paraphrased)
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Leia o original em The New York Times ↗