Iran escalates Strait of Hormuz blockade as oil spikes above $100; Trump vows war continues past midterms

The International Atomic Energy Agency's board of governors voted Wednesday to refer Iran to the United Nations Security Council over its nuclear program—the first such referral in two decades. The vote was 23 to 3, with Russia, China, and Niger opposed. The United States, Britain, France, and Germany sponsored the resolution, which Iran's government immediately condemned as a political maneuver designed to weaponize the global nuclear watchdog.

Tehran's response was sharp. Officials said the IAEA had ignored what they characterized as American and Israeli military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, and they signaled they would limit cooperation with international inspectors only to the extent that security conditions permitted. The timing of the referral coincided with an escalation in military operations across the Persian Gulf, where the conflict between the United States and Iran has been grinding on for more than six months since February 28.

On Wednesday, Iranian Revolutionary Guards attacked more than a dozen vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, including two US ships, eight oil tankers, and ten other vessels deemed non-compliant with Iranian restrictions. The British maritime authority UKMTO confirmed that merchant vessels in the Northern Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman were subjected to what it called "disabling fire" as part of ongoing military activity. Iran has progressively tightened its control over the strait, which normally carries roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply, by expanding a no-go zone that restricts traffic.

The attacks sent oil markets into sharp motion. Brent crude, the international benchmark, climbed above $100 a barrel for the first time since late May, settling at $101.21 on Wednesday—a gain of $3.29, or 3.4 percent. US West Texas Intermediate rose $3.02, or 3.3 percent, to $96.45. Murban crude jumped 4.95 percent to $116.30 per barrel. Traders and analysts interpreted the price movement not as a reaction to a single disruption but as a fundamental reassessment of how long the conflict will constrain Middle Eastern oil supplies. By Thursday morning in Asian trading, Brent held above $101 per barrel.

President Trump told Republicans in Texas that oil prices would fall "as soon as" the United States wins the war. "We're winning it. We control the Hormuz Strait," he said, and he repeated his suggestion of renaming the waterway the "Trump Strait." He did not specify when victory might come or what it would require. Secretary of State Marco Rubio defended the US approach to maritime operations, saying the country continues to destroy suspected drug-trafficking vessels when necessary, with each operation reviewed by lawyers and conducted under agreements with regional partners. He emphasized that decisions were made case by case, depending on the vessel, the threat it posed, and its location.

Meanwhile, the Pentagon is examining how to strike Iran's most heavily fortified nuclear facilities. Satellite imagery shows accelerating construction at Pickaxe Mountain, a deeply buried granite complex near the Natanz nuclear facility. The Center for Strategic and International Studies analyzed six years of satellite data and found that construction activity in 2026 exceeded any previously documented period at the site. The work includes reinforcement of underground access points, hardening of entrances, paving of internal roads, and continued excavation. The US maintains operational plans for a potential strike on the complex, though it remains unclear whether existing bunker-busting weapons could penetrate deeply enough to destroy nuclear assets inside.

Inside Iran, the conflict has opened a rare political fissure. Former presidents Hassan Rouhani and Mohammad Khatami have called for an honorable end to the war, arguing that Iran should rebuild and offer hope to young people and investors. Rouhani went further, suggesting that Iranian leaders should consult the public about whether to continue fighting. "If the people say they accept this, very well, let us continue," he said. "But if the people do not accept it and show us another way, do we not want to accept it?" His remarks have drawn fierce criticism from hardliners, including Hossein Shariatmadari, editor of the Kayhan newspaper, who accused the former presidents of advocating "dishonorable and humiliating surrender" and called for judicial investigation of their statements.

Diplomatic channels remain open. The UN Secretary-General spoke by telephone with Oman's Foreign Minister on Wednesday, praising the sultanate's role in supporting de-escalation efforts and dialogue. Bahrain's foreign minister also spoke with his Egyptian counterpart about reducing tensions through diplomatic means. Yet the military momentum and the hardening of positions on both sides suggest that any negotiated settlement remains distant.