Iran Braces for Renewed US-Israeli Strikes as Trump Weighs Post-Midterm Attack Options

Two US aircraft carrier strike groups are now in the Arabian Sea, and a third is expected by late November. In Tehran, officials are reading that deployment, and a run of media reports, as a sign that the war the United States and Israel began in late February is about to enter a new phase.

The political calendar frames the moment. Israel holds an election on October 27, and the US midterms follow on November 3. Polls show that high energy prices caused by the war are hurting Donald Trump's Republican Party. On October 8, Trump posted on social media that the United States would not attack Iran before the midterms, citing "productive discussions" with Tehran. The last US strikes on Iran came in early September. Once the votes are counted, he may feel less constrained. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, for his part, has campaigned on a platform of regime change in Iran.

On Wednesday, the New York Times, citing senior US officials, reported that Washington and Israel have "developed specific plans" for a "short but intensive operation." Targets would include nuclear facilities, energy infrastructure, and Iran's stock of missiles and drones. One official said the aim would be to extract "diplomatic concessions" by further damaging the Iranian economy, since negotiations to end the war have gone nowhere. A US blockade of Iranian oil exports in the Strait of Hormuz is already cutting into Tehran's revenue.

Other outlets have reported along similar lines. In early October, Axios said the Pentagon had told US Central Command to finish preparations for resuming major combat operations. On October 15, Trump told Newsmax he was considering a strike on Pickaxe Mountain, near the Natanz nuclear complex, where US officials say Iran may have moved sensitive nuclear-related material underground. The next day, CNN reported he was weighing use of a Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb. Because that weapon produces its force as a blast wave above ground, its usefulness against underground sites like Pickaxe would be limited.

Iranian officials say they are ready. Ali Asghar Shafieian, a media adviser to President Masoud Pezeshkian, told DW that the US holds the advantage in military power and technology, but that "Iran's strength is in how it deals with a crisis." He pointed to the quick replacement of senior officials killed in earlier strikes as evidence of a sturdier political structure. Iran has also been rebuilding the missile and drone capabilities hit during the large wave of strikes in the war's first weeks. Reuters, citing Iranian officials, reported this week that Tehran is preparing for renewed attacks rather than a deal, and is dragging out talks to weaken Trump before the midterms.

Tehran has warned neighbors that US bases and critical infrastructure could become targets if they help another US or Israeli operation. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi promised a "decisive and proportionate response" to any cooperation. He also wrote on X that Iran would give diplomacy another chance if it saw real evidence of sincerity from Washington, but that choosing war would bring "an even greater strategic failure."

Preparations are also internal. Tehran-based analyst Rahman Ghahremanpour told DW they include confronting armed opposition groups, readying for possible protests, and preventing outside military pressure from merging with domestic unrest. He expects renewed internet restrictions and stronger mobilization of government supporters in public spaces. In his view, Iran's goal is to convince Washington that regime change by force is impossible. He described the diplomatic situation as a deadlock: US demands are so extensive that even Iranians who favor compromise struggle to win support for them. Talks keep snagging on the nuclear program, which US officials insist must lead the agenda. Iran's latest offer, sent via Qatari mediators, would reopen Hormuz under Iranian control in exchange for lifting the blockade, releasing frozen assets and ending military action. The Wall Street Journal, citing Kpler data, reports oil flows through Hormuz are nearing prewar levels as US escorts and risk-tolerant shippers return, which may be eroding Iran's leverage.

For ordinary Iranians, the prospect lands on top of hardship. A doctor in Tehran, speaking anonymously because talking to media is dangerous, said the economy has become "extremely bad" and expects internet cuts if fighting resumes. A woman in Tehran described anger toward regime supporters and said war combined with protests could raise the risk of street confrontations. Asked about strikes on underground nuclear sites, she said: "What do the nuclear sites have to do with us? They are inside mountains."

The next markers are fixed: Israel's vote on October 27 and the US midterms on November 3.