Inflation data set to determine RBA rate hike as markets price in 80% probability

Market-consensus framing that normalizes rate hikes as inevitable; uses dramatic language ('make or break') to emphasize urgency; relies on financial institution perspectives as primary authority without balancing consumer/household impact views.

Iran's closure of Strait of Hormuz demonstrates asymmetric leverage over global energy supplies, forcing developed economies like Australia to absorb inflation costs and tighten monetary policy. This shifts economic burden to consumers and reduces RBA policy autonomy, indirectly strengthening Iran's disruptive capacity while weakening household purchasing power in allied nations.

1970s-80s oil crises when OPEC embargoes forced Western central banks into aggressive rate hiking cycles, triggering stagflation and recessions. Current Hormuz disruption mirrors that supply-shock dynamic but with less coordinated OPEC control.

Households face mounting mortgage costs with $1,800 already added this year; further rate hikes will increase borrowing costs for mortgages, loans, and credit, reducing disposable income and consumer spending power.

RBA will likely proceed with 25bp rate hike on May 5 unless inflation data shows significant downside surprise; potential for additional 58bp of hikes by year-end depending on energy price trajectory and inflation persistence; may require coordination with government fiscal policy to manage cost-of-living pressures.