India's smartphone shipments fell 20% year-on-year in July-September, the lowest level in a decade, per Counterpoint Research. Phones under INR 20,000 fell 47%, with the steepest drop below INR 15,000, as record memory prices raised device costs.
India's Smartphone Market Posts Worst Decade-Low Quarter as Memory Costs Squeeze Budget Buyers
Shipments of phones under INR 20,000 fell 47%
Mark
Why does a memory chip price spike hit India harder than other markets?
Mimi
Because so much of India's volume sits in cheap phones. When memory costs rise, a phone at INR 15,000 has little room to absorb it, so the price climbs into the next band.
Luke
Worth saying that's Counterpoint's explanation, and a plausible one. The source gives us the shipment numbers, not a breakdown of how much each factor contributed.
Mark
The two trackers disagree, 20% against 26%. Which is right?
Mimi
Neither is wrong on direction. Omdia says 26%, Counterpoint says 20%, and both call it the lowest in roughly a decade.
Luke
Right, they use different methods. I wouldn't average them. Treat each as one firm's estimate.
Mark
Samsung is back on top. Is that a sign of strength?
Mimi
Partly. Counterpoint points to the Galaxy A series and modest price increases. Samsung's share is 17%, with vivo at 16%, so the lead is narrow.
Luke
And in a shrinking market, a share gain doesn't tell us Samsung's own volumes rose. The source doesn't say.
Mark
What about Ai+ growing 306%?
Mimi
Huge percentage, but Indian brands overall went only from 2% to 7%. It's a small base.
Luke
The 13% decline for 2026 and the claim about more price hikes are forecasts, not facts. They're Counterpoint's expectations.
Le Pouls
- Shipments fell 20% year-on-year in Q3, a decade low (Counterpoint)
- Phones under INR 20,000 ($210) fell 47%
- Samsung led with 17% share, vivo 16%, Oppo and Xiaomi 12% each
- Counterpoint forecasts a 13% market shrink in 2026
India's smartphone shipments fell 20% year-on-year in July-September, the lowest level in a decade, per Counterpoint Research. Phones under INR 20,000 fell 47%, with the steepest drop below INR 15,000, as record memory prices raised device costs.
Counterpoint Research reports India's smartphone shipments fell 20% year-on-year in July-September, a decade low, driven by record memory costs that pushed budget phones into higher price bands.
India's smartphone makers just posted their weakest quarter in ten years. According to Counterpoint Research, shipments in July through September fell 20% from the same period a year earlier, to the lowest level in a decade. The cause, the firm says, is record-high memory prices, which pushed up the cost of building phones and, in turn, what buyers are asked to pay.
The figure arrives a week after a rival tracker, Omdia, put the damage higher. Omdia reported a 26% drop in third-quarter shipments, the lowest since 2016. Counterpoint's number is somewhat milder, but the two firms describe the same picture: a market pulled down by rising costs and soft demand. Brands also kept less stock in stores than usual, even with the festive season approaching.
The cheapest phones took the worst of it. Shipments of devices priced under INR 20,000 (about $210) fell 47%, as price increases pushed many models into higher bands. Counterpoint says the pressure was sharpest below INR 15,000 (about $158). Consumers in that range held on to their existing phones for longer and put off upgrades.
Against that backdrop, the rankings shifted. Samsung returned to first place for the first time in nine quarters, with a 17% share. Counterpoint credits its Galaxy A series and price hikes that were relatively measured. vivo, excluding iQOO, was close behind at 16%. Oppo took third with 12%, helped by triple-digit growth in phones above INR 20,000. Xiaomi, counting Poco, also held 12% in fourth place, and it led the INR 10,001 to 20,000 band (roughly $105 to $210).
Apple had a better start. The iPhone 18 Pro series opened with initial sales nearly 20% higher than the iPhone 17 Pro family managed.
Smaller names grew fast from low bases. Ai+ Smartphone was the fastest-growing brand, with shipments up 306%. Indian brands together rose from a 2% share to 7%. itel grew 88%, and Google gained more than 50%, aided by the Pixel 11 devices. Among chipmakers, MediaTek stayed first with a 45% share, while Unisoc recovered some ground as brands chased better profit in the lower price segments.
Counterpoint expects the pain to continue. It forecasts India's smartphone market will shrink by about 13% in 2026, with another round of price increases likely once the festive season sales end. Brands are already adapting by launching more 4G and lower-specification phones for the mass market. The firm believes 2027 will be difficult too, so buyers waiting for cheaper phones should not expect relief soon.
Citations marquantes
Counterpoint expects the market to shrink by around 13% in 2026, with another round of price hikes likely after the festive season sale and a challenging 2027.— Counterpoint Research
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