On the first trading morning after the Diwali pause, Indian shares stood poised to resume a month of hard-won gains, with the Nifty 50 having closed at its loftiest level in more than eight months. The climb rests on a familiar human hope: that the price of oil will ease, that companies at home are earning well, and that global capital, weary of its own excesses in chipmaking, has turned its gaze toward India once more. Yet the same currents that lifted the market can also turn, as a hotter-than-expected inflation reading in America has stirred fresh worry about rising interest rates and the f
Indian Stocks Set for Higher Open as Softer Crude and Foreign Inflows Lift Nifty Toward Eight-Month High
Foreign investors have already bought $5.68 billion of Indian shares this month
Mark
So the Nifty is heading for a higher open. What's driving it?
Mimi
Mostly money coming in from abroad. Foreign investors have bought $5.68 billion of Indian shares this month, the most in a month since September 2024.
Mark
And oil is part of that?
Mimi
Yes. Brent dropped to $89.16, a two-month low, after US officials played down more military action against Iran. It's back up to $92 on Wednesday, though.
Luke
I'd be careful with the causes. The report lists easing crude, strong earnings and a chipmaker selloff as reasons for the foreign return. Those are the stated explanations, not something measured.
Mark
Fair. What about the other side of the ledger?
Mimi
US inflation came in hotter than expected, Treasury yields jumped, and Wall Street fell. That raised the chance of a half-point Fed hike next month.
Luke
Note it's a raised chance, not a decision. And nothing here tells us how Indian stocks will actually react once trading starts.
Mark
And the company news?
Mimi
Blackstone is buying about 16% of IIFL Finance, MRF's profit fell nearly 28%, and Kalyan Jewellers' profit jumped 64%.
Luke
Futures at 25,334 suggest a higher open, but they're an indicator, not the open itself.
El Pulso
- Foreign investors have poured $5.68 billion into Indian shares this month, the strongest monthly buying since September 2024, and the market is riding that tide.
- Brent crude slid to a two-month low of $89.16 a barrel as American officials cooled talk of further military action against Iran, easing fears of supply disruption.
- A hot US inflation print sent Treasury yields climbing and Wall Street lower, raising the odds of a half-point Federal Reserve rate hike next month.
- The Nifty and Sensex have each gained nearly 9% in November, and GIFT Nifty futures at 25,334 point to a higher open after the Diwali holiday.
- Corporate results are splitting the mood: Kalyan Jewellers surged 64% in profit while MRF's profit fell nearly 28% under the weight of raw-material costs.
On the first trading morning after the Diwali pause, Indian shares stood poised to resume a month of hard-won gains, with the Nifty 50 having closed at its loftiest level in more than eight months. The climb rests on a familiar human hope: that the price of oil will ease, that companies at home are earning well, and that global capital, weary of its own excesses in chipmaking, has turned its gaze toward India once more. Yet the same currents that lifted the market can also turn, as a hotter-than-expected inflation reading in America has stirred fresh worry about rising interest rates and the foreign money that depends on them.
Indian shares were set to reopen on Wednesday after the Diwali break, and the mood on the trading floors was cautiously hopeful. GIFT Nifty futures signalled a higher start, picking up where the Nifty 50 left off on Monday, when it closed at 25,044.65, its best finish in more than eight months. Markets had been shut on Tuesday for the festival, so the month's gains now stood ready to be tested again.
The rally has been driven by several forces at once. Both the Nifty 50 and the BSE Sensex have climbed close to 9% in November, helped by softer crude prices, solid domestic earnings, and a sell-off in global chipmakers that pulled foreign investors back toward India. Those investors have bought Indian shares worth $5.68 billion this month, already the biggest monthly purchase since September 2024.
Oil has been the quiet engine of this optimism. Brent fell to a two-month low of $89.16 a barrel after American officials played down the need for further military action against Iran, easing worries about supply. On Wednesday it had edged back up to around $92.
Overnight, however, the mood abroad turned uneasy. Hotter-than-expected US inflation data pushed Treasury yields higher and dragged Wall Street down, raising the chance of a half-point interest-rate hike from the Federal Reserve next month.
Company news offered a mix of stories. Blackstone agreed to buy about 16% of IIFL Finance for roughly $535 million, part of a larger fundraise. MRF saw its quarterly profit fall nearly 28% as raw-material costs rose, while Kalyan Jewellers posted a 64% jump in second-quarter profit.
The question now is whether crude stays soft and whether a tighter American rate stance will slow the foreign money that has carried the month's rally.
Indian shares were set to reopen on Wednesday after a one-day break for Diwali, with futures pointing to a higher start. GIFT Nifty futures stood at 25,334 as of 7:41 a.m. IST, a signal that the benchmark Nifty 50 would pick up from where it left off on Monday, when it closed at 25,044.65, its highest finish in more than eight months. Markets were shut on Tuesday for the festival.
The backdrop is a month of strong gains. The Nifty 50 and the BSE Sensex have each risen nearly 9% so far in November. Three things are credited with the move: easing crude oil prices, strong domestic corporate earnings, and a selloff in global chipmakers that helped draw foreign portfolio investors back toward India.
The foreign buying has been large. FPIs have bought Indian shares worth $5.68 billion this month, which already makes November their biggest month of purchases since September 2024.
Oil has been a central part of the story. Brent crude futures fell to a two-month low of $89.16 a barrel on Tuesday, after US officials played down the need for further military action against Iran. That eased worries about disruptions to supply. On Wednesday, Brent was up 0.5% at $92.
Overnight, though, the global picture turned less friendly. US Treasury yields jumped and Wall Street stocks fell after inflation data came in hotter than anticipated. The reading raised the odds of a half-percentage-point interest-rate hike from the Federal Reserve next month.
Several companies were also in focus. Blackstone will buy about 16% of IIFL Finance for 50 billion rupees, roughly $535 million, as part of a $682.9 million fundraise by the non-bank lender. Tyre maker MRF reported a near 28% fall in quarterly profit, as higher raw-material costs outweighed strong demand for its tyres. Kalyan Jewellers India posted a 64% jump in second-quarter profit, with revenue up 31.4%.
The things to watch now are whether crude holds near these softer levels, and whether the prospect of a larger US rate hike starts to slow the foreign inflows that have driven the month's rally.
Quieres la nota completa?
Lee el original en Livemint ↗