Indian investors stand at the edge of a Friday morning they cannot yet read, holding their positions while a distant ceasefire may or may not be real. A reported extension between Washington and Tehran, promising to reopen the narrow waters of Hormuz, has reached the markets through anonymous sources, but neither government has put its name to it, and so caution settles over Mumbai like weather. Elsewhere the world has already leaned toward hope, with oil falling and Asian exchanges climbing, while Indian shareholders, still pulling capital out of their own market at a record pace, wait for th
Indian Shares Seen Flat as Investors Weigh Unconfirmed U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Extension
Foreign investors have sold $24.3 billion of Indian shares this year
Mark
Why is a market that can't even trade on a deal's news opening flat?
Mimi
Because the deal isn't done. Sources say the U.S. and Iran agreed to extend the ceasefire and lift Hormuz shipping limits, but Trump hasn't approved it.
Luke
And Iranian state media says it isn't finalized. So the core claim rests on unnamed sources, not an announcement.
Mark
India was closed Thursday. Does that matter?
Mimi
It does. The Nifty missed that day, so Friday's futures reading of 23,890.05 is the first chance to price in the news.
Luke
Worth noting that's a futures indication, not an actual open. It's a forecast of flat, nothing more.
Mark
Oil is down to $93 Brent. Why isn't that lifting Indian shares more?
Mimi
Ponmudi R at Enrich Money says crude and the truce help, but foreign selling and the pending approval may cap gains.
Luke
That's one analyst's view. The selling figures are firmer: $24.3 billion out this year, past 2025's record, though Wednesday's 10.4 billion rupees is provisional.
Mark
Anything else moving stocks?
Mimi
Company news. Wipro's U.S. shares rose 18.5% on its ServiceNow tie-up, and Ashok Leyland posted record quarterly profit and revenue.
Luke
What we don't know is whether the ceasefire extension will be confirmed at all. The piece can't say.
Le Pouls
- A reported US-Iran truce has landed in markets, but Trump has not signed off and Iranian state media says the deal is not final.
- GIFT Nifty points to a flat open near Wednesday's close of 23,907, as traders refuse to commit before confirmation arrives.
- Brent crude has slid to $93 a barrel and Asian markets have jumped 1.6%, showing the world is pricing in peace faster than India is.
- Foreign investors have pulled $24.3 billion from Indian shares this year, already past the record outflows of 2025, and that selling threatens to cap any rally.
- Corporate results such as Wipro's 18.5% US-listed surge and Ashok Leyland's record quarter offer bright spots in a market still waiting for diplomatic certainty.
Indian investors stand at the edge of a Friday morning they cannot yet read, holding their positions while a distant ceasefire may or may not be real. A reported extension between Washington and Tehran, promising to reopen the narrow waters of Hormuz, has reached the markets through anonymous sources, but neither government has put its name to it, and so caution settles over Mumbai like weather. Elsewhere the world has already leaned toward hope, with oil falling and Asian exchanges climbing, while Indian shareholders, still pulling capital out of their own market at a record pace, wait for the words that would make the good news solid.
Indian shares are set to open almost unchanged on Friday, with GIFT Nifty futures pointing to a start very close to Wednesday's close of 23,907. Markets were shut on Thursday for a local holiday, so the Nifty has not traded since Wednesday, a day that passed while news from the Middle East moved quickly.
On Thursday, sources told Reuters that the United States and Iran had agreed to extend their ceasefire and lift restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. But the deal remains unsettled. President Donald Trump has not approved it, and Iranian state media says it has not been finalized. Indian investors are holding back in that gap between what sources report and what governments have confirmed.
Elsewhere the reaction has been bolder. Brent crude fell to $93 a barrel and Asian markets rose 1.6%, lifted by hopes for the deal and a rally in artificial intelligence stocks. Ponmudi R of Enrich Money believes the drop in crude and the progress toward a truce support equities, but he warns that persistent foreign selling and the pending approval may keep gains limited for now.
That selling is heavy. Foreign investors offloaded 10.4 billion rupees of Indian shares on Wednesday, and for the year they have sold $24.3 billion, more than the record annual outflows of 2025. Company news offers some lift: Wipro's U.S.-listed shares jumped 18.5% after a ServiceNow partnership, Ashok Leyland posted its best quarter ever, and Physicswallah narrowed its loss as revenue rose about 13%.
The next signal is whether Washington and Tehran formally confirm the extension. Until they do, the pace of foreign selling will decide how far any rally can go.
Indian shares are set to open close to unchanged on Friday. Traders are waiting to learn whether a reported extension of the ceasefire between the United States and Iran is real. At 7:52 a.m. India time, GIFT Nifty futures stood at 23,890.05. That points to a start for the benchmark Nifty 50 very near Wednesday's close of 23,907.15.
The Nifty has not traded since Wednesday. Indian markets were shut on Thursday for a local holiday, so the index missed a day in which the news around the Middle East moved quickly.
On Thursday, sources told Reuters that the U.S. and Iran had reached an agreement to extend their ceasefire and lift restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The deal is not settled. U.S. President Donald Trump has not yet approved it, and Iranian state media said it had not been finalized. That gap between what sources describe and what either government has confirmed is why Indian investors are holding back.
Other markets have been less cautious. Brent crude futures fell to $93 a barrel, and Asian markets rose 1.6%. The gains reflected optimism over the U.S.-Iran deal and a rally in artificial intelligence stocks.
Ponmudi R, chief executive of Enrich Money, said the sharp drop in crude and progress toward a truce both support equities. But he warned that continued selling by foreign investors, and the pending approval of the agreement, may keep gains capped in the near term.
The selling is substantial. Provisional data show foreign investors sold 10.4 billion rupees ($108.70 million) of Indian shares on Wednesday. For the year so far they have offloaded $24.3 billion, which already exceeds the record annual outflows of 2025.
Several companies are in focus. Wipro's U.S.-listed shares jumped 18.5% on Thursday after it announced a partnership with ServiceNow to implement agentic AI workflows. Edtech firm Physicswallah narrowed its quarterly loss while revenue rose about 13%, and it approved a 1.2 billion rupee investment in Finz Finance through a rights issue. Ashok Leyland reported its highest-ever quarterly profit and revenue, helped by strong demand for commercial vehicles.
The next signal is whether Washington and Tehran formally confirm the extension. Until then, the pace of foreign selling is the other thing to watch, since it could limit any rally in Indian equities.
Citations marquantes
The sharp decline in crude oil prices and progress toward a U.S.-Iran truce are supportive for equities, while continued foreign investor selling and the pending approval of the truce agreement may keep gains capped in the near term.— Ponmudi R, CEO, Enrich Money
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