Indian shares poised for higher open as oil prices fall on Iran peace deal hopes

On Wednesday morning, Indian stock futures were signaling a stronger open, buoyed by a shift in global sentiment that had little to do with domestic earnings or company performance. The catalyst was simpler: oil was getting cheaper, and that mattered enormously to a country that imports most of its crude.

Brent crude had fallen to $108 a barrel, down from roughly $115 earlier in the week. The reason was a statement from U.S. President Donald Trump suggesting that negotiations with Iran might yield a comprehensive agreement. Trump said he would pause "Project Freedom," a naval operation designed to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, citing what he called "great progress" in talks with Tehran. Iran had not yet responded publicly to these remarks.

GIFT Nifty futures—the contracts that preview the opening of India's main benchmark—were trading at 24,290 points by 7:55 a.m. Indian Standard Time. That pointed to the Nifty 50 opening roughly 1% higher than Tuesday's close of 24,032.80. The logic was straightforward: lower oil prices ease inflation pressure and reduce the import bill for a country that consumes significant quantities of petroleum. The broader regional mood had shifted as well. Asian markets had jumped 2.3% to record highs overnight, and Wall Street had closed with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both hitting all-time highs.

Hariprasad K, founder of Livelong Wealth, captured the cautious optimism circulating among traders. "Global sentiment has improved on signs of de-escalation in the Middle East, and overall, the market appears to be entering the session with a positive bias," he said. But he also named the real test: whether the move would hold. "The sustainability of the move will depend on earnings delivery, stability in crude prices, and currency movement. The interplay between global risk sentiment and domestic fundamentals will shape the intraday trajectory."

Tuesday had been rougher. Both the Nifty 50 and the Sensex had fallen about 0.4% each as crude prices remained elevated. The Indian rupee had hit an all-time low, a sign that higher oil costs were straining the currency. Foreign portfolio investors had sold domestic stocks worth $380.54 million on a net basis, while domestic institutional investors had bought 26.03 billion rupees worth—a modest counterweight but not enough to offset the outflows.

Among individual stocks, Larsen & Toubro would draw attention. The construction giant had reported a quarterly profit decline, with the Middle East conflict disrupting projects there. The company was now guiding for moderating revenue growth in the 2027 financial year. Hero MotoCorp, by contrast, was positioned to gain after beating March quarter profit estimates on the back of strong domestic demand. Coforge had more than doubled its fourth-quarter profit on rising order intake. United Breweries had posted a 4.3% rise in March quarter profit and recommended a dividend of 10 rupees per share. SRF had reported higher March quarter profit and approved an enhanced capital outlay for facilities producing fourth-generation refrigerants in Odisha.

One note of friction: ICICI Bank had received an administrative warning letter from the markets regulator related to its depository participant operations, though the bank said it was taking corrective action. The broader question hanging over the session was whether the relief from falling oil prices would prove durable, or whether it would evaporate once traders turned their attention back to company results, currency stability, and the actual trajectory of crude in the weeks ahead.