Indian Markets Eye Flat-to-Negative Open as GIFT Nifty Slips and Foreign Outflows Weigh on Sentiment

The Nifty recovered 228 points off its low but still closed down a fourth day
Friday's session ended in a recovery, but the losing streak and a 2.35 percent weekly Nifty drop stood.
Mark

Four straight losing sessions, yet the Nifty closed well off its low. What's the picture?

Mimi

It fell to 22,372 intraday, then recovered 228 points to close at 22,600, down 0.39 percent. The Sensex bounced 670 points from its low.

Luke

A recovery is not a reversal, though. It still closed lower for the fourth day, and the week was down 2.35 percent for the Nifty.

Mark

Foreign investors were blamed for outflows, but they bought on Friday?

Mimi

Yes, FIIs were net buyers of Rs 887 crore on October 23, and domestic institutions bought Rs 3,236 crore for a fourth session.

Luke

Worth noting that the source cites sustained foreign outflows as a weight on sentiment, while giving only that one day's figure. We can't say from this how large the outflows were over the week.

Mark

And oil?

Mimi

Brent was at $115.16 and US crude at $101.67, both lower on Monday but after near six-month highs. Attacks on Saudi Arabia keep supply worries alive.

Luke

The reporting doesn't detail those attacks or their effect on actual supply, so the link to Indian stocks is a market-sentiment link, not a quantified one.

Mark

What should we watch?

Mimi

Central bank meetings, the Fed decision and earnings, which test the AI trade.

  • Indian indices slid for a fourth consecutive session, with the Nifty touching an intraday low of 22,372 before clawing back.
  • Brent crude hovers near $115 a barrel as attacks on Saudi Arabia keep supply fears front and center.
  • Tech stocks steadied on Wall Street, but the AI trade's durability faces its sharpest questioning in weeks.
  • South Korea has shed nearly 19 percent this month, and gold has slid to its lowest level since July.
  • A packed week of Fed policy, central bank decisions and earnings will show whether sentiment can recover or deepen its slide.

On a Monday in late October, Indian stock benchmarks were bracing for a soft opening after a fourth straight losing session, as the Nifty settled near 22,600 and the Sensex near 73,100. The pressure gathers from several directions at once: crude oil lingering near six-month highs with Brent above $115 amid attacks on Saudi supply, and a shaky global appetite for the artificial intelligence trade that has lifted and unsettled markets alike. Investors across Asia and Wall Street are treating the week ahead, with its central bank meetings, Federal Reserve decision and earnings reports, as a moment to test whether that optimism can endure.

Indian equity benchmarks began the week on a cautious footing. GIFT Nifty pointed to a flat-to-negative open after Friday, when the Nifty lost ground for a fourth session in a row. Markets had risen early, only to lose their footing within the first hour, and the index dipped to 22,372 before recovering to close at 22,600, down 0.39 percent. The Sensex ended at 73,123.83. Over the week, both benchmarks gave back their two-week winning run.

The mood was quieter than the numbers suggest. Foreign investors turned buyers on Friday, while domestic institutions extended their streak of net purchases. Across Asia, the picture was uneven: Japan slipped and South Korea continued a steep monthly decline, while oil eased from recent peaks but remained punishingly high. Wall Street closed lower, though technology shares steadied at the end of a turbulent stretch for AI stocks.

Energy is the pressure point that refuses to fade. Crude is still hovering near its highest levels in six months, and ongoing attacks on Saudi Arabia keep supply on investors' minds. Gold has also pulled back, and bond yields have eased from their early-month peak. Now attention turns to the coming days, when central banks, the Federal Reserve and a crowded earnings calendar will reveal whether confidence in the AI boom can hold.

GIFT Nifty was trading about 22 points lower, near 22,585.50, in early trade on Monday, October 26. That points to a flat-to-negative opening for Indian benchmark indices after a week that ended on a weak note.

On Friday, October 23, Indian equities lost for the fourth session running. Markets opened higher but could not hold the gains, and within the first hour they had turned lower. Selling cut across sectors, and the Nifty fell to an intraday low of 22,372, below the 22,400 mark. The source ties the pressure to sustained foreign fund outflows and rising crude oil prices.

The index then recovered. The Nifty50 climbed 228 points off its low to close at 22,600, down 87.65 points, or 0.39 percent. The Sensex finished at 73,123.83, down 125.56 points, or 0.17 percent, after bouncing 670 points from the day's bottom.

For the week, both benchmarks snapped a two-week winning streak. The BSE Sensex declined 2 percent and the Nifty 50 fell 2.35 percent.

The flow data was more mixed than the sentiment. Foreign institutional investors turned net buyers on October 23, purchasing equities worth Rs 887 crore. Domestic institutional investors were net buyers for the fourth consecutive session, putting in Rs 3,236 crore.

Overseas, Asian markets started Monday cautiously. Oil eased from six-month highs ahead of a week packed with central bank meetings and company earnings, which will further test investor confidence in the AI boom. Japan's Nikkei dipped 0.5 percent after losing 4 percent last week. South Korea fell 0.9 percent and has shed almost 19 percent so far this month. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.1 percent.

Wall Street also closed lower on Friday, even as technology shares steadied somewhat at the end of a turbulent week for the AI trade. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 652.82 points, or 1.23 percent, to 52,215.16. The S&P 500 lost 39.75 points, or 0.52 percent, to 7,623.68, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 53.52 points, or 0.21 percent, to 25,955.34. Investors are looking ahead to a busy slate of earnings and a Federal Reserve rate decision.

Energy remains the sharpest pressure point. Oil fell on Monday after surging to near six-month highs late last week, but ongoing attacks on Saudi Arabia kept supply concerns in focus. US crude futures were down $1.60, or 1.55 percent, at $101.67 a barrel, and Brent was down $1.56, or 1.34 percent, at $115.16. Gold steadied around $4,000 an ounce after falling more than 4 percent last week, its biggest weekly drop since June, to the lowest level since July.

In rates and currencies, the dollar index was lower at 101.65. The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.97 percent, below a peak of 5.36 percent early in the month, and the 2-year yield was down 2 basis points at 4.66 percent. Asian currencies were mixed: the Philippine peso fell 0.26 percent and the Indonesian rupiah 0.11 percent, while the South Korean won gained 0.09 percent. This week's central bank meetings, the Fed decision and corporate earnings are the next tests.

Share markets got off to a cautious start as oil eased from six-month highs ahead of a week packed with central bank meetings and earnings that will test confidence in the AI boom.
— Moneycontrol market report (paraphrased)
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