On the eve of a midterm election, a growing share of Americans say they belong to no party, yet the machinery of American democracy still leans toward the two that have governed for generations. Most of those who call themselves independent still tilt toward a major party, and the true independents who remain are a small, persuadable core. The obstacles they face are less about law than about structure and money: districts drawn to reward a single winner, voters wary of wasting a ballot, and campaign treasuries that dwarf anything an outsider can raise. Whether this moment becomes a turning po
Independents Are Nearly Half of US Voters, but Few Win Office as the Two-Party System Holds Firm
Millions reject the party labels, but far fewer vote for independents
Mark
If 44 percent of adults call themselves independent, why does almost none of that show up in who wins?
Mimi
Because the label is looser than it sounds. Most of those independents lean toward a party, and only about 7 to 10 percent have no leaning at all.
Luke
Worth noting that's a survey-based split, and the 117 million figure is the report's own count. The lean data tells us attitude, not how each person actually votes.
Mark
So what keeps independent candidates from winning?
Mimi
Winner-take-all districts, mainly. Support spread thin across a state or district rarely adds up to a seat. And voters worry about wasting a ballot or spoiling for their side.
Luke
Tamas argues laws on ballot access matter little and money matters most. That's one scholar's view, though the spending numbers support the gap: roughly $252.3m for the DNC and $341m for the RNC.
Mark
Is money the whole answer, then?
Mimi
Not entirely. Independents are also less known, and Manchin's council has raised over $10m to help, which is small next to the party totals.
Mark
Where could this actually change something Tuesday?
Mimi
Nebraska with Dan Osborn, and Montana with Seth Bodnar, where a third candidate could split the vote.
Luke
Careful, though. Those are Simmons's assessments and a toss-up rating from RealClearPolling. Nobody has voted yet, and the Montana outcome depends on how Bankhead's votes fall, which is unknown.
Le Pouls
- Forty-four percent of Americans now call themselves independent, but only a sliver are untethered from either party.
- Winner-take-all districts and fears of a wasted vote keep pulling independent voters back toward the two major parties.
- Independent candidates are scrambling for money, with the Independent Leadership Council backed by Joe Manchin raising over $10 million to help them compete.
- In Nebraska, Dan Osborn stands as a genuine toss-up challenger after Democrats left the field, while Montana's three-way race could hand the seat to Republicans if the anti-GOP vote splits.
- Election night will test whether independents can break through, or whether they will only pressure the parties from the margins.
On the eve of a midterm election, a growing share of Americans say they belong to no party, yet the machinery of American democracy still leans toward the two that have governed for generations. Most of those who call themselves independent still tilt toward a major party, and the true independents who remain are a small, persuadable core. The obstacles they face are less about law than about structure and money: districts drawn to reward a single winner, voters wary of wasting a ballot, and campaign treasuries that dwarf anything an outsider can raise. Whether this moment becomes a turning point or another brief flicker will depend on a few races where the old arithmetic might, for once, come out differently.
On the eve of Tuesday's midterms, a striking number of Americans say they belong to no party. Pew Research Center finds 44 percent of US adults call themselves politically independent, more than either Democrats or Republicans, and that figure could prove decisive for control of Congress and state legislatures. Yet the independents who hold office are few: one in the House, two in the Senate, and no independent governor anywhere.
The headline hides a complication. Most self-described independents still lean toward a major party, and true independents make up only about 7 to 10 percent of voters. Those are the persuadable core of the swing vote, and frustration with President Donald Trump runs strongly through their choices. Analysts describe them as Republicans or Democrats who disagree with their party on some issues, or who want nothing to do with Washington's culture.
The structure of elections does much of the rest. Winner-take-all districts rarely concentrate minor-party support enough to win, and voters often abandon outsiders for a major-party candidate they see as viable. Scholars point less to ballot-access laws than to money: the 2024 federal cycle cost $14.8 billion, and independents raise little and are less known. Help is emerging, including a new council backed by former senator Joe Manchin, but the real test is whether independents can stay viable across many races and cycles.
The best chances lie in Nebraska and Montana. In Nebraska, Navy veteran Dan Osborn is the main challenger to Republican Pete Ricketts after Democrats fielded no replacement, and the race is rated a toss-up. In Montana, a three-way Senate contest could split the anti-Republican vote and hand the seat to the GOP, or deliver a rare upset. Whatever happens, independents may already be reshaping the parties, pushing them to act or govern differently. Election night will show how far that influence can reach.
On the eve of Tuesday's midterms, the voting bloc that both parties are courting hardest is also the one that rarely gets represented by its own. Pew Research Center's annual National Public Opinion Reference Survey finds that 44 percent of US adults call themselves politically independent, against 29 percent who say Democrat and 28 percent who say Republican. The figure is as high as 117 million adults by the report's count, and it could prove decisive for control of Congress and state legislatures.
Yet the independents who actually hold office are few. The US House has one, the Senate has two, and no state has an independent governor. Democrats and Republicans have run everything from statehouses to the presidency for generations. Rick Bennett, a former Maine Republican Party chair now running to become only the third independent governor in that state's history, put it bluntly: the whole electoral system is built to frustrate the independence of voters.
There is a catch in the headline number. Most self-described independents still lean toward one of the major parties, and those with no partisan leaning at all make up only about 7 to 10 percent of the electorate. These so-called true independents are the persuadable core of the swing vote. Among likely independent voters this year, Marist polling suggests 52 percent back Democrats and 39 percent back Republicans. Frustration with President Donald Trump runs through that picture: independent respondents were more than three times as likely to say their vote is mainly against the president, and 28 percent said they are voting for change. Republican strategist Lesley Shedd told Al Jazeera that someone who says they are independent is usually a Republican or Democrat who disagrees with the party on some issues, or who doesn't want to be tied to the culture of Washington.
The structure of elections does much of the rest. The US does not legally limit contests to two parties, and many local officials have no party label. But for House and Senate races, winner-take-all rules and single-member districts work against outsiders, since even sizable minor-party support is seldom concentrated enough in one district to win. Voters reinforce this themselves, often backing a major-party candidate they see as viable and shying from a spoiler who might peel votes from one of the two. Political scientist AJ Simmons says people also fear casting a wasted ballot when the most competitive candidates are Democrats or Republicans.
Bernard Tamas of Valdosta State University, who studies third parties, argues that ballot-access laws get too much blame; he says there is very little evidence legal barriers are undermining these candidates. The real obstacle, in his view, is money. Federal elections in the 2024 presidential cycle cost $14.8bn, and 2026 is projected to exceed that, with up to $11.6bn in political advertising alone. The Democratic National Committee has raised nearly $252.3m this cycle and the Republican National Committee about $341m. Tamas notes the US offers virtually no public support to parties and sets no spending limits, and that independents raise very little and are less known.
Some help exists. The Independent Leadership Council, launched in July by Joe Manchin, the former Democrat turned independent senator, supplies donors and campaign resources to independent congressional candidates and has raised more than $10m. Analysts say the longer test is whether independents can stay viable across many races and cycles. Simmons calls 2026 one of the strongest cycles for them in recent memory, and expects 11 independent or third-party candidates for governor or Senate to clear the 5 percent mark often used to gauge viability, Bennett among them.
The best chances lie in two states. In Nebraska, Dan Osborn, a 51-year-old Navy veteran, is the independent Senate candidate Simmons calls the most likely alternative candidate to win; RealClearPolling rates the race a toss-up. The state Democratic Party fielded no replacement after its nominee withdrew, leaving Osborn as the main challenger to Republican Pete Ricketts. In Montana, Seth Bodnar, a former University of Montana president and Army veteran, faces Republican Kurt Alme, backed by the Independent Leadership Council, which also supports California Congressman Kevin Kiley, who left the GOP to run as an independent. Democrat Alani Bankhead could split the anti-Republican vote with Bodnar and hand the seat to Alme. Simmons ranks Montana second most likely, saying a Republican loss there would make for an extraordinarily bad night for the party.
In Idaho and South Dakota, independents are not forecast to win but may force Republicans to spend money and time on seats they assumed were safe. Simmons says independents' greatest influence has historically been pressuring the major parties to adopt new policies or govern more effectively. Nebraska and Montana are where to look on election night.
Citations marquantes
The whole electoral system is built to frustrate the independence of voters.— Rick Bennett, independent candidate for Maine governor
There is very little evidence that legal barriers are undermining these candidates; the real barrier is money.— Bernard Tamas, political scientist, Valdosta State University
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Politics & Governance